[arretium]

In another thread, I went off topic and discussed what people believe will happen in the U.S. post peak. I began thinking, what does everyone think will happen?

Are you a Mad-Max total doom and gloomer? Do you foresee the free market solving our problems, are you a Cornucopian at heart? Do you think it will be something in between? How long will this take? Will it be 5 years post peak? 10 years post peak? 3 months?

Let's find out what the consensus is around here. I realize this is a global issue, but for the sake of focus, I ask that we constrain our position to the U.S. My reasoning is that different areas of the world will change at different rates. One can say that doom and gloom happens in South America, but not Canada. Since the U.S. economy is the foundation of the world economy, let's start there.

Remember these options are for POST PEAK. We are NOT predicting WHEN peak oil will occur, but RATHER, what will happen to the U.S. economy/political structure AFTER peak oil occurs.

KEY to poll data
#1 - Doom and Gloom - U.S. disevolves into fuedal lords, massive starvation, deaths. Effectively the dissolution of the U.S.
#2 - Worst economic depression - By here I mean the worst ever, worse than the 1930's. Significant loss of life, starvation, deaths, civil disorder, but peak oil does NOT cause the end of the U.S. political structure, however there definitely or most likely will be a complete economic collapse.
#3 - Economic depression - a significant drop in the U.S. economy, starvation, civil strife, but not the worst ever. Economy does stabalize, perhaps at a lower level, perhaps with continued growth in future (Option 2 without the complete economic collapse and less strife).
#4 - Multiple Recessions - As demand for oil exceeds supply, oil prices rise causing economic recession. Economy cools reducing demand for oil and causes oil prices to fall. As economy shows signs of life, demand again exceeds supply and the cycle repeats continuous. Until eventually one of the above or below options occur.
#5 - Cornucopian #1 - Free market prevails, markets shifts to new sources for energy based on unknown technology improvements and things continue on as they have been.
#6 - Free Market Energy Solution (Cornucopian #2) - Marketplace, with perhaps help from the Gov't, develops (not necessarily invents) new energy solutions. i.e. We move to Nuke Energy, and build electric cars/trains.
#7 - Baghdad Bob - "What peak oil? There is no peak oil." Essentially, there isn't a problem, at least for the next 20 years. We have plenty of oil. Oil doesn't peak in the foreseeable future.


So where do you sit? When do you see it all unfolding after peak oil? 1 Year after peak oil? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? I couldn't conceivably add time limits to the poll question or we'd have an unlimited number of possibilities, so feel free to add your prognostication for how fast things unfold in your replies to this poll question.

I'll start with my own answer. Right now, I see #4 unfolding, and then disevolving into #2. The U.S. political system doesn't collapse, but the economic system does.

If your answer is also #4, please add what you think will be the eventual outcome (i.e., technology saves the day or we move in with Matt S.... j/k Matt...)

Edited for clarity, explained Option #5 meant that technology saves the day, whereas #6 means that technology improvements may or may not happen in near term, but free markets (or gov't help) moves economy to other energy sources are we continue onward. #2 - edited option #2 to reflect "most likely" economic collapse rather than "may" collapse. I think people picking option #2 probably figure a complete economic collapse as a foregone conclusion, but I wanted to leave a little wiggle room in there. Edit #2 - Grammar/word choose edit (clarity) - Changed "set" to "sit".

[Jack]

Good poll!

I chose item 1, Mad Max. I was tempted by 2 (depression)...

The book "Who are we?" by by Huntington is salient. There is no longer a national consensus on precisely who is an American, nor what is required to become an American. The present national debate over illegal immigration is a case in point - is an illegal alien who has been inside the U.S. for a decade, working and paying taxes, an American? Legally, no - though more and more seem to argue otherwise.

Moreover, the U.S. is no longer a nation with a homogeneous culture. What, precisely, does it mean in terms of behaviors, attitudes, values, and so forth to be an American?

By and large we avoid these questions; perhaps because we cannot answer them. That bodes ill for the future of an American nation.

[Tyler_JC]

Jack is right (again). It scares me to think of how little I have in common with my fellow citizens. The US is simply too big and too diverse to be one nation. Multi-culturalism doesn't create a stable nation-state, it creates chaos. If I can't use 1 language to do all of my daily transactions, something clearly is not right. Diversity is not particularly helpful to any nation. Never in the history of Man has a nation without a homogenous culture survived any length of time. Heterogeneous cultures are only capable of surviving when the economy is booming. This wealth acts as a cushion to ethnic/racial/class/religious tensions.

Look at Austria-Hungary. It was once a powerful country in Central Europe, but in-fighting and ethnic tensions caused it to fall apart. World War I was, after all, caused by a conflict between two ethnic groups (among other things). Austria-Hungary broke up into a half dozen smaller countries that were more homogeneous, and thus, more stable. (well, sort of)

Look at the Roman Empire. The definition of “Roman” was stretched until the term lost all meaning. The army was a melting pot of mercenaries with no loyalty to the Empire. Rome functioned just fine until the realities of its overstretch became apparent. No one felt any loyalty to their home country because, frankly, they had no home country.

Look at nearly any nation in Africa. When most African countries won their independence, they were left with false borders that did not truly reflect the various cultural sub groups of the continent. That’s why we see such unrest and misery. The various tribes are fighting with each other for power over a country that shouldn’t exist. The Democratic Republic of Congo is a prime example of this. There are dozens of tribes that make up this country. How can the DRC be called a nation?

Homogeneous cultures survive much longer and have a stronger sense of common purpose. Sweden enjoys a high standard of living and (according to my limited view of the world ) has relatively few civil uprisings. If every country was made up of a homogeneous culture, there would be much more social peace. But there are two major problems with this. First off, it’s impossible to create one of these new nations out of thin air. It would have to be done over a number of years. Secondly, it might lead to wars between the various nations (who used to be part of 1 country). Either way it’s a mess. I personally think that several smaller countries would work better than the current United States, but that’s just me.

(sorry for rambling)

[RiverRat]

I voted for 4 with a transition to 6 - over a period of time.

I would say that this process and transition will not have a net postive result on the economy (only bringing it back in line with the 1st recession)

Then again ... what do I know ... I don't get paid the big bucks to figure all this out.

[Leanan]

Probably the easiest way to break up the U.S. would be by state. Which is kind of how we started. We could end up 50 different "countries." Or more.

Another possibility: break along the old Civil War lines. The fault lines are still there, as we saw in the last election. The Red States vs. the Blue States.

As for me...I think we'll have a series of recessions. At first, people will expect it to get better, as it always has. We'll go along for years that way, swinging from the current stagnant economy to outright recession and back again. Eventually, we'll fall into the mother of all depressions. In the long run, we will be back to feudalism, but it may take decades.

I imagine the U.S. will end up like pre-industrial China. A high level of technology, all things considered, but suffering frequent war and famine, which will produce population booms and busts.

[tdrive]

Based on a simulation with import prices going up 30% each year
(which includes things like not only oil but other commodities)
at the end 4Q of 2006 the picture is as follows:

Inflation goes up 13%
GDP flattens out (no growth) after peaking in 4Q 2005
Three month Treasury bill rate goes to 6%
Job growth peaks at the end of 2005 and goes down to 1Q 2005 level at 4Q 2006
Account deficit goes up to 1200 Bil (1.2 T)
Mortgage rates go up to 7.7%

Moderately bad, but not catastrophical.

Cheers,

[NevadaGhosts]

This is how it will play out:

First recession, then depression, then eventual collapse and chaos- in that order.

[Tyler_JC]

What happens to the $ in your simulation? A 1.2 trillion dollar account deficit would pop the debt bubble in this country. Worldwide savings aren't high enough to offset that kind of drain. I'm under the impression that the dollar would sink rather quickly in this situation. Maybe even reaching 2-1 with the Euro.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')weden enjoys a high standard of living and (according to my limited view of the world ) has relatively few civil uprisings.

[arretium]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')weden enjoys a high standard of living and (according to my limited view of the world ) has relatively few civil uprisings.

[seldom_seen]

jack, tyler <-- word

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')he fault lines are still there, as we saw in the last election. The Red States vs. the Blue States.

[jaakkeli]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'J')ack is right (again). It scares me to think of how little I have in common with my fellow citizens. The US is simply too big and too diverse to be one nation. Multi-culturalism doesn't create a stable nation-state, it creates chaos.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'S')o what did you vote?

[jaakkeli]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')weden enjoys a high standard of living and (according to my limited view of the world ) has relatively few civil uprisings.

[JonathanR]

Will the US economy make it to peak oil? Much less past it.

[tdrive]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat happens to the $ in your simulation? A 1.2 trillion dollar account deficit would pop the debt bubble in this country.

[heyhoser]

I choose Economic Depression. Kinda scary how so few people here believe that technology will save the day.
Looking at the facsism emerging in our government, however, I am fearful of an eventual Mad Max.

[NevadaGhosts]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('arretium', 'S')o what did you vote?

[Yavicleus]

Take a good look at how things look in 3rd world countries where there is high unemployment, minimal government and law enforcement, and most people subsist on what they are able to farm or strip out of the environment...



...and that, is what I think we are in for. I don't think we'll go Mad Max. At worst, we'll go Sudan, Rwanda, or Ethiopia.