$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')hort,
If you cant understand the implications of what that chart may be showing and how exporting nations are measurably exporting less right now than they were just a few years ago, then there really is no discussion. It's obviously beyond your worldview to comprehend.
PeakOil is You
TOD: Export Land Model
Re: The Export Land Model
by shortonsense » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 01:09:22
Might be true....or....maybe YOU don't understand the implications of the worlds largest consumer of imported crude importing only as much as it did 33 years ago without causing shortages, outrageous price spikes, or you from owning and flying your own personal aircraft let alone soccer moms from buying SUV's, maybe our ability to cope with using less far outways any single other effect you can possibly imagine, and such an effect is a completely NATURAL solution to any projected decrease predicted by the ELM.
PS: "Predicted by the ELM" is not an admission that the ELM is actually predicting anything, considering its lack of information related to economic behavior in the countries in question.
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Re: The Export Land Model
by shortonsense » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 01:15:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')I frankly doubt we became "much, much more efficient".
')I frankly doubt we became "much, much more efficient".
Then YOU offer an explanation. We import as much crude as we did 33 years ago, the economy has grown approximately 2.5X since then, we have millions of more cars if not tens of millions or even hundreds of millions more, and some of them are SUV's which weren't even around when we were sucking down crude in the late-70's, if it isn't efficiency it sure is SOMETHING of quite a serious nature. Wonder why peakers don't try and figure stuff like this out...seems like a pretty decent solution for the rest of the world is wrapped up in how well us Americans have done it. Maybe thats the problem....peakers aren't looking for solutions, they just enjoy the fantasy world they create. Sort of like Second Life, except for pessimists.
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Re: The Export Land Model
by gollum » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 01:17:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')hen YOU offer an explanation. We import as much crude as we did 33 years ago, the economy has grown approximately 2.5X since then, we have millions of more cars if not tens of millions or even hundreds of millions more, and some of them are SUV's which weren't even around when we were sucking down crude in the late-70's, if it isn't efficiency it sure is SOMETHING of quite a serious nature. .
I can buy that explanation for the drop in imports in the early eighties, but the more recent drop is not efficiency.- gollum
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Re: The Export Land Model
by shortonsense » Wed 03 Mar 2010, 02:23:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', 'I') can buy that explanation for the drop in imports in the early eighties, but the more recent drop is not efficiency.
I would agree. That drop is the power of demand destruction, triggered by price to some, possibly large, extent. This power was revealed to be greater than field declines over the past 2 years, which is quite a surprise....I'm trying to recall any contemporaneous peaker article I ever read which said that "obviously, when peak oil causes the price to rise, demand will slacken and compensate for the production decline down the backside well enough to mitigate price back to a reasonable level".....but I can't seem to find it.In any case, demand destruction is a wonderful thing, and hopefully once the soon to be released Volts and Leaf's start hitting the showroom floor, it certainly isn't difficult to imagine a country which uses less and less through time, particularly if other countries soak up what we used to use and keeps the price high enough to make sure that structural changes can continue under a decent crude price floor. Certainly the idea has the Saudi's worried enough that they think they might need handouts soon.
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I think you are
