by rangerone314 » Fri 26 Feb 2010, 00:18:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'W')e'll all know by 2015, if the price of oil averages over $130/bbl.
Is that it? 10 years post peak and someone is claiming we won't even get back to the 2008 price?
Because the economy will still be in the crapper, demand will be down, AND production will be down MORE.
Also I didn't say "peaks" at $130, I said average... the average price was considerably below $147.
Last edited by
rangerone314 on Fri 26 Feb 2010, 10:00:59, edited 1 time in total.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
by shortonsense » Fri 26 Feb 2010, 09:46:20
Then when you imply that perhaps we shouldn't believe their information, you didn't really mean it? Or are you just questioning what I consider the value of their information to be?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'B')ecause...there is uncertainty in the system, and the information involved?
Yup
See how easy that was! Uncertainty within any given system covers all sorts of booboo's...
by rangerone314 » Mon 01 Mar 2010, 00:08:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') think that 2005 was a peak, but not the true geological peak, because I think Saudis were holding back. As Ghawar declines geological, they will hold back less, thus the appearance of a plateau and then that will turn downwards when they have nothing left to hold back.
First we apparently have about 5 million barrels a day of excess capacity to work off...according to the information presented at TOD anyway.
I HOPE you are right, more time for me to prepare, for when they DONT have any excess. The large the buffer the better. I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best... (unlike some here)
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
by shortonsense » Mon 01 Mar 2010, 01:15:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') think that 2005 was a peak, but not the true geological peak, because I think Saudis were holding back. As Ghawar declines geological, they will hold back less, thus the appearance of a plateau and then that will turn downwards when they have nothing left to hold back.
First we apparently have about 5 million barrels a day of excess capacity to work off...according to the information presented at TOD anyway.
I HOPE you are right, more time for me to prepare, for when they DONT have any excess.
For starters, it isn't me you hope is right, its TOD. And there will always be excess, basic economic theory, ignored in general by peakers at their own risk, has a tendency to balance supply and consumption with some left over for good measure. Demand, in the technical sense, is always higher than supply. Think..."I demand a million dollars!"... demand what you wish, it doesn't make it a actual thing.
As far as prepping, hey, I'm all for prepping, started back in the early 80's myself, and its made the most recent peak oil a veritable walk in the park.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
') The large the buffer the better. I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best... (unlike some here)
by shortonsense » Mon 01 Mar 2010, 10:34:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he TOD does not "present information." It is a blog, a collection of disparate folks.
So is this place, and when a place like this, or that, presents information, well, it is certainly presenting some information.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')nd no one really knows if the the Saudi's have 5 million barrels/day excess, except perhaps the Royal Family. I would believe Simmons over them anytime. So would any loyal American.
Why don't you head over to TOD and tell them about your beliefs and loyalties, I'm sure they would be fascinated, but I might venture that a decent psychotherapy group would benefit you more.
by shortonsense » Mon 01 Mar 2010, 20:45:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') believe the Saudis. Why would they lie?
I assign the likelihood of truthfulness on a case by case basis. Certainly when it comes to technical matters, the actions and results of the Saudi technical people far outway anything peakers have been able to array against them, credibility wise.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')They are at least as honest as our politicians and businessmen, and they never lie either.
They lie all the time and you know it...the difference is in the results the Saudi's have displayed which gives their claims credibility. Lets not forget...Ghawar was empty years ago...NOT.
