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Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

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Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AAA » Mon 22 Feb 2010, 19:02:21

Great article in the Oil and Gas Investor. MSM for oil companies.

http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com/ (Subscription Required)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Presentations by Thomas A. Petrie, vice chairman of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, draw large, attentive crowds. At a recent event hosted by the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States, the audience listened intently to his views on topics ranging from peak oil to geopolitical trends to hybrid vehicles. With nearly four decades of industry experience and $180 billion in transactions informing Petrie’s forecast, the atmosphere in the room recalled Warren Buffett’s annual address to investors of Berkshire Hathaway.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“One of my beliefs from that discontinuity is that the progressive maturity of the resource base, at 80 million-plus barrels per day of global production and consumption, is going to translate into a peak-oil event.”


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Low-cost oil is in irreversible decline, he said. He overlaid on an International Energy Agency chart of world primary energy demand (with demand expanding by 40% between now and 2030) the notion that the marketplace this year or in 2015 will see market recognition of peak oil. “We’ll know in a few more years if the upward slope of demand that the IEA has built in is accurate,” he said.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')According to the IEA, there must be real, absolute shrinkage in consumption of oil throughout the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries to accommodate disproportionate growth from non-OECD countries, including China (42%), India (17%), and others.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AAA » Mon 22 Feb 2010, 19:03:14

I think the world is going to recognize peak oil much sooner than 2015.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 22 Feb 2010, 20:32:32

Thanks for the info and quotes, AAA.

The on-line subscription rate for that website, by the way, is a thousand bucks a year. 8O
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 22 Feb 2010, 21:52:11

Thanks as well. Thomas Petrie Oil - Google Search Some video there, he was at ASPO 2007. "Practical peak oil" is his thing, sounds akin to Rapier's coinage Peak Lite.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AAA » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 13:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The on-line subscription rate for that website, by the way, is a thousand bucks a year. 8O


I didn't suggest subscribing. :) Besides a small oil company can easily spend over $50 million/year in drilling costs so $1000/year isn't asking much.

If you have access to issues of the OG Investor then I highly recommend reading them.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby Olaf » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 15:19:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he on-line subscription rate for that website, by the way, is a thousand bucks a year. 8O
I didn't suggest subscribing. :) Besides a small oil company can easily spend over $50 million/year in drilling costs so $1000/year isn't asking much. If you have access to issues of the OG Investor then I highly recommend reading them.
I think he (I'm assuming) did really just mean thanks for the view behind that expensive curtain.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AAA » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 19:38:13

-Update-

While visiting the OG Investor website today I noticed the above article about Thomas Petrie was the most emailed article on their website.

Every oil company, large or small, intimately knows about peak oil. They deal with the affects of declining production on a daily basis.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 22:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') think the world is going to recognize peak oil much sooner than 2015.


I think the world recognized global peak oil in 2005 just like the Prophets have claimed and its been so awe inspiring that people still pretend its an event off in the future.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 23:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') think the world is going to recognize peak oil much sooner than 2015.


I think the world recognized global peak oil in 2005 just like the Prophets have claimed and its been so awe inspiring that people still pretend its an event off in the future.


Look we get it, maybe you should tone it down a bit dont you think? It's kind of getting tiresome and it adds absolutely NOTHING to anyone's discussion. It almost appears that you are running around like a 5 year old trying to find places to drop this line anywhere and everywhere you can.

It's classic trollish behavior and it will not be tolerated much longer. Unless your going to add something to the discussion don't bother to post.

No one enjoys someone who comes in here to garner post counts and this SURELY qualifies for that.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 23:33:36

I think it's hilarious! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby Homesteader » Tue 23 Feb 2010, 23:49:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') think it's hilarious! :lol:


Trolls and shills generally do think each others efforts are admirable.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 01:14:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAA', 'I') think the world is going to recognize peak oil much sooner than 2015.


I think the world recognized global peak oil in 2005 just like the Prophets have claimed and its been so awe inspiring that people still pretend its an event off in the future.


Look we get it, maybe you should tone it down a bit dont you think? It's kind of getting tiresome and it adds absolutely NOTHING to anyone's discussion.


Really? Are you certain? If your statement is true, I certainly wouldn't have to keep saying it to remind people that ITS A DONE DEAL when they keep referring to peak oil in the future.

Is it really such a horrifying thought that people flee, mentally speaking, from even the very idea that the Blessed Event happened years ago, and was so terrible that...<wait for it>....all the sheeple haven't even noticed? Come on AP, Peakers gloss this over like nobodys business.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') It almost appears that you are running around like a 5 year old trying to find places to drop this line anywhere and everywhere you can.


Hey...someone screams 2+2=5 at the top of their lungs, and I'm the man to correct them no matter how many times are required.

Even YOU ignore it....the Big 3 have all declared peak oil, years ago. When someone says, "oh no, its another 5-10-15 years away" why doesn't a regular with your posting history step right in even before I mention it and gently chide the poster, "now see here youngster, peak oil can't be 5-10-15 years from now because some of the most revered names in the peak oil movement have already declared 2005 as the year the most cataclysmic event in the history of mankind occurred".

Why should noticing this simple fact be left up to the likes of me? Why aren't respected mods like you gently guiding the slightly befuddled onto the path of enlightenment?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') It's classic trollish behavior and it will not be tolerated much longer. Unless your going to add something to the discussion don't bother to post.


Its FACTUAL INFORMATION, not behavior, and it adds perfectly to the discussion by clearing up the mistaken concept that an event in the past has somehow magically been transformed to a future date. 2+2 is NOT 5, and not pointing this out to those who make the mistake is nearly a lie by omission, by not challenging such basic information, people are given the impression its true, when we all know that near irrefutable and highly respected long term peak Prophets have said otherwise.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 11:46:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I')ts FACTUAL INFORMATION, not behavior, and it adds perfectly to the discussion by clearing up the mistaken concept that an event in the past has somehow magically been transformed to a future date.


NO its not factual its you playing troll games. Thats all it is. We may have not reached The Peak yet. Yes others have called it, and you know what? They may actually be right, but the rational folks here amongst us are waiting to reserve judgment on it.

So what your doing is just about as bad as those "prophets" you keep talking about.

Why don't you just knock it off already since we all know you think there is another peak coming. Your being disingenuous. Others here call it being a Troll.

Your a smart guy shorty, do you really want that handle?
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 11:54:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'E')ven YOU ignore it....the Big 3 have all declared peak oil, years ago. When someone says, "oh no, its another 5-10-15 years away" why doesn't a regular with your posting history step right in even before I mention it and gently chide the poster, "now see here youngster, peak oil can't be 5-10-15 years from now because some of the most revered names in the peak oil movement have already declared 2005 as the year the most cataclysmic event in the history of mankind occurred".


Ummm, maybe because most of us who understand how the peak will play out get that it's probably prudent to wait for some period of time before absolutely calling it? That it is only in hindsight, possibly by years, that we will really know one way or another that we won't reach the peak number ever again.

What is so difficult for you to understand about that? Why do you insist on playing the troll game?
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby rangerone314 » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 13:17:56

Oil mostly likely "peaked" in 2005. What was ave price of crude in 2005, like $50/bbl?

The prices seems to be in 2010 going around $70-$80... and we are in a horrible recession compared to 2005.

My Theory: Sounds to me like oil producers in 2005 were holding back production (a buffer) so that 2005 was an artificial peak, and geologic decline becomes an issue so they stop holding back and sell what they can for $80/bbl. Hence the "peak" being stretched into a plateau.

The fun begins when there is no more buffer in the system (is there any now?) and decline continues while Chindia puts more cars on the road.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AAA » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 13:45:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')My Theory: Sounds to me like oil producers in 2005 were holding back production (a buffer) so that 2005 was an artificial peak, and geologic decline becomes an issue so they stop holding back and sell what they can for $80/bbl. Hence the "peak" being stretched into a plateau.


I disagree.

2005 saw record high prices the oil industry had never seen before. $50 and $60 seems low now but in 2005 that was unheard of to have oil prices that high. Every oil company I know was producing as much oil and drilling as many oil wells as possible.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 20:41:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I')ts FACTUAL INFORMATION, not behavior, and it adds perfectly to the discussion by clearing up the mistaken concept that an event in the past has somehow magically been transformed to a future date.


NO its not factual its you playing troll games. Thats all it is. We may have not reached The Peak yet. Yes others have called it, and you know what? They may actually be right, but the rational folks here amongst us are waiting to reserve judgment on it.


Reserve judgement all you'd like, 3 prominent peak oilers who's reputation was near impeccable in 2005 have already represented when peak oil happened. And your characterization of them as "unrational" is misguided....maybe one of them is unrational, 5 years later, the others are still coherent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')So what your doing is just about as bad as those "prophets" you keep talking about.


Bad? I am referencing the facts. I certainly can't change them for your convenience or psychological comfort.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Why don't you just knock it off already since we all know you think there is another peak coming. Your being disingenuous. Others here call it being a Troll.


Then they understand neither what a troll is, nor what facts are, or there value, and if they wish to confuse some interpretation of my position ( rather than the one I have stated plainly in the past ) with the way I account for those facts, this mis-characterization doesn't reside with ME.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Your a smart guy shorty, do you really want that handle?

You mean, compared to the other names I am called because people are irritated that I have seen no reason to fall for groupthink?
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 20:42:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')My Theory: Sounds to me like oil producers in 2005 were holding back production (a buffer) so that 2005 was an artificial peak, and geologic decline becomes an issue so they stop holding back and sell what they can for $80/bbl. Hence the "peak" being stretched into a plateau.

The fun begins when there is no more buffer in the system (is there any now?) and decline continues while Chindia puts more cars on the road.


According to an article at TOD which I noticed today, they estimate spare capacity at around 5 million barrels a day. Quite a bit of buffer in the system if you ask me.
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Re: Thomas Petrie on Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 24 Feb 2010, 23:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')ccording to an article at TOD which I noticed today, they estimate spare capacity at around 5 million barrels a day. Quite a bit of buffer in the system if you ask me.


That is if you actually believe it. I have seen good discussions here from memmel and some over at TOD which suggest this is not the case. It may be true but the market moves lately in crude futures and spot price do not support it. Both the IEA and EIA figures differ dramatically. I wonder why?
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