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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Unread postby gg3 » Thu 05 May 2005, 07:14:23

I think the Prince Philip item is spurious & a red herring. On the other hand, concerns about virus pandemics, the lack of safeguards on viral samples, and the potential for terrorist biowarfare, are legitimate.

Homeland Security funding has turned into something of a Congressional pork-barrel, and CDC funding is slated for cuts. We should be writing to our elected officials to demand they exercise proper oversight in these areas.

With respect to most emerging diseases, Asia and Africa would be the likely spots for outbreaks to begin. North America and Europe would have plenty of warning as the statistics came in. With respect to bioterror attacks, the first site of an outbreak would be a major city in the US or England, or, less likely, a major city elsewhere in Europe or North America. Warning time would vary with distance from the epicenter.

In fact there is no need to "bug out," and in a world connected by airplanes, trains, buses, and private cars, no place to bug out *to.* Best bet is to hunker down where you are, and adopt prudent precautions such as avoiding public places where/when crowds are present, not using public transport (sorry!), staying home from work/school, doing necessary shopping early or late so as to be in the stores when few other people are present, wearing a flitermask in public, including eye goggles, washing hands/face frequently, not using public restrooms....

All of this is inconvenient as hell but entirely doable. Keep two weeks' worth of food & water at home ("earthquake / snowstorm preparedness") so you can stay in if need be, notably during the first two weeks after the first case is detected in your area.

In general, don't get paranoid or panicky, keep a level head, make thoughtful and thorough plans, write down your plans so you can refer to them for clarity in a crisis (don't count on your memory in a crisis), and occasionally do partial practice drills or at least review sessions.
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Unread postby Egon_1 » Thu 05 May 2005, 12:14:37

Hmmm...Asia is the fastest growing user of oil. Asia is seeing new outbreaks of potentially nasty bugs. Some of those bugs appear to be genetically engineered.

What would the U.S. do to protect it's national interests? If I were a conspiracy theory fan, I would probably be going ape-shit about now... :shock:
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 14:19:13

gg3, some good comments, save one:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the Prince Philip item is spurious & a red herring.

Perhaps you did not read through the links thoroughly, but I commend you for your contarian instincts. If by red herring, you mean a distraction for the real issue, I disagree, I think Prince Philip has a well-established history of controversial quotes, and ideas, and it's telling because of his position. Are you saying you don't believe the quote to be true? Or that it probably is true, but a mis-direction to some other real issue? Please explain. If you don't believe it to be true, let's find out together, shall we?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')I just wonder what it would be like to be reincarnated in an animal whose species had been so reduced in numbers that it was in danger of extinction. What would be its feelings toward the human species whose population explosion had denied it somewhere to exist? ... I must confess that I am tempted to ask for reincarnation as a particularly deadly virus.”
- Prince Philip Mountbatten’s foreword to the October, 1987 book ‘If I Were An Animal’ by Fleur Cowles. The foreword was titled ‘People as Animals.’

http://home.planet.nl/~reijd050/NWO_quotes.htm

It's this book, with this ISBN:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rince Philip, Cowles Fleur - If I Were an Animal
ISBN: 0688061508
Prince Philip, Cowles Fleur - If I Were an Animal
William Morrow & Company (ISBN: 0688061508)


and here:
link
Looks like William Morrow was the US publishing company as well. Barnes and Noble doesn't have it new, but they have it used. Tell you what. If you don't believe it to be true, get a copy, or have someone get a copy, prove it here, and I'll send $10 to the charity of your choice. Deal?
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 14:40:45

Ah, I just caught the 'spurious' part of your comment...

So you do believe it to be fake, do you...actually, I'd like to know if it is spurious as well, if it is...so, can you prove it?

Maybe you could try to check the attributed quote from Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA). It was on August 8, 1988 apparently... Perhaps one of our intrepid German members or guests would be so kind as to try and find it in the DPA archives?
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 15:05:58

Here's some more info for your search, gg3...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')uxilliary Sciences of History What's Been Published
ISBN: 0688061508 Dewey: 920/.02 19 LCCN:
CT105 .P39 1987 Volume Details: 160 p. : ill. ; 22 cm.

Title: If I were an animal / compiled and illustrated by Fleur Cowles ; with a foreword by H.R.H. Prince Philip. 1st U.S. ed.
Previously published as: People as animals.
Indexed Topics: Celebrities Psychology. | Animals Miscellanea. | Fantasy.

Where to find it: Your local library may have it. Print this page and give it to your librarian. If you can't print, write down: 1) Title, 2) ISBN, 3) LCCN and 4) Dewey numbers

Other possibilities: Check the 'Used' departments of these links.

link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')uxilliary Sciences of History What's Been Published
ISBN: 0860720942 Dewey: 920/.009/04 19 LCCN:
CT105 .P39 1986 Volume Details:
: ¹.. 141 p. : ill. ; 23 cm.

Title: People as animals / compiled and illustrated by Fleur Cowles.
Includes index. Indexed Topics:
Celebrities Psychology. | Animals Miscellanea. | Fantasy. | Reincarnation Miscellanea.

Where to find it:
Your local library may have it. Print this page and give it to your librarian. If you can't print, write down: 1) Title, 2) ISBN, 3) LCCN and 4) Dewey numbers

Other possibilities: Check the 'Used' departments of these links.

I earnestly await either your proof, or your apology.... :)
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Unread postby BiGG » Thu 05 May 2005, 15:14:53

Knock, knock ………………………….KNOCK, KNOCK!

Go away germ carrier!

KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK!

I SAID GO AWAY germ carrier before I start putting some buckshot in your ass as a motivator to move on down the road a little quicker! BiGG will not be opening the door until spring. Don’t worry, I have plenty of food and other amenities to last me and my friends until this is past, now go and die someplace else as I don’t want your disease ridden rotting corpse in my front yard.

What? …….. HUH? ……… I can barely hear you but I think you said something about burning my hou..? ……..oh, yawn! The house is concrete you idiot, now like I said, go and die someplace else.
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Unread postby BiGG » Thu 05 May 2005, 15:21:49

BTW: Ouch! Those links! A hint you can use to edit them into something we don’t have to scroll back & forth to read ….
1.Click the edit button and the link will look link this …
[URL=http://www.webpage.com]Webpage Title[/URL[
2. Where it says “Webpage Title”, delete just the part that says “Webpage Title” and type in something like “See story here”
3. Click submit and it will be corrected.
In the future when you post a link, paste the link into the box and click “OK” once, you will now see where the same box says “Webpage Title”, add your title there before clicking OK again and it will automatically be added.
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 15:33:44

Gee, another new quote:“If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels” (Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh, leader of the World Wildlife Fund, quoted in “Are You Ready for Our New Age Future?” Insiders Report, American Policy Center, December 1995).
link

and another:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')r as expressed by Prince Philip: “If I were reincarnated, I would wish to be returned to Earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels.” (2)
2) Prince Philip, The Duke of Edinburgh, quoted in an address to the World Wildlife Fund. Sources also include: The River by Edward Hooper and sightings

link

and this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any of the role models put forward by the environmental zealots often have very mixed messages. Paul Erhlich praises Prince Philip of Great Britain for having "taken courageous stands in the population issue and its connection to environmental problems." But this is the same Prince Philip who, when asked what he would like to be reincarnated as, replied: a "killer virus to lower human population levels." Certainly a princely thing to say.

link

Oh, hell, while you're at it, google 'bohemian grove' with 'Paul Bonacci' with 'Franklin Coverup' and 'Jeff Gannon/James D. Guckert/Johnny Gosch' with 'Monarch' (a MK program for political blackmail purposes) and other search variations...and that'll REALLY flip your lid...especially given the fact that Paul Bonacci was awarded over $1 million from Larry King (not that Larry King) in 1999...and guess where Larry King ended up? Republican party HQ in Wash, yup... But that's not the worst of it...it'll turn your stomach...down the rabbit hole you'll go...
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 22:00:16

Ok, I'm going to post this in its entirety...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')HO: Flu Pandemic May Have Begun

Recombinomics Commentary
May 5, 2005

>> In Asia, there are hints that the virus is indeed changing. "Incomplete evidence suggests that there may be a shift in the epidemiology of the disease," says Stöhr. "More clusters are being seen than last year, older people are now coming down with the diseases, and more cases are milder." Taken together, these characteristics could indicate that the virus is becoming less virulent and more infectious, he says, which could signal the start of a pandemic. <<

Klaus Stohr's comments above are the first acknowledgement by WHO that the 2005 flu pandemic may have begun. The clearest signal was the simultaneous admission of a family of five in Haiphong on March 22. All five were confirmed to be H5N1 positive and all five recovered. Earlier signals were the transmission from patients to nurse(s) in Thai Bohn and the 195 commune members with flu symptoms. Although samples were collected from over 30 individuals, the results have yet to be released. The same is true for the neighbors of the Haiphong family and the patients at Vietnam Sweden hospital in Thai Ninh.

1000 samples were collected, and those results were not announced either, but the shipment of samples to CDC for analysis was a very big red flag and these changes correlated with an amino acid loss. presumably in at the HA and cleavage site as a clear signal that the H5N1 in northern Vietnam was a recombinants.

The virus clear has all of its ducks in row, and humans are simply sitting ducks, unaware or unconcerned about the looming mayhem in the fall.


WHO_H5N1_Pandemic

with this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ureaucracy stymies flu tactics
Declan Butler
Delays in reporting cases jeopardize plans to prevent pandemic.

The recent bout of bird flu in Asia has now claimed 52 lives.

Cases of humans being infected with bird flu are rising in Asia, and there are worrying signs that the virus is mutating into a more transmissible form. But experts say bureaucratic delays will probably defeat attempts to stop a human pandemic in its tracks.


news@nature


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eis de Mayo in Manila: Second Flu Pandemic May Have Begun

Recombinomics Commentary
May 5, 2005


>> On Thursday 5 May, WHO officials attended a meeting in Manila in the Philippines with government health representatives from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, to address the current flu situation. <<

It sounds like H5N1 was discussed on Cinco de Mayo in Manila, but WHO will get the bad news on Seis de Mayo. They should hear that WSN/33 in dead Korean pigs is quite real and flu has opened a second front.

Today's NEJM commentary indicated the world was unprepared for a flu pandemic and the outcome could rival 1918. WHO has acknowledged that the H5N1 bird flu pandemic of 2005 may have begun. The WSN/33 news WHO receives on Friday should ring more alarm bells.

This should be a wake-up call, but reaction will likely come when it is too late, which is now


hWSN33_Pandemic_Begun

Is it time to say: KATY, BAR THE DOOR!?
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Thu 05 May 2005, 22:16:36

Here's a smattering of recent mainstream and not-so-mainstream news recently:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal epidemic of avian flu - Governments bury their heads

Governments around the world must stop burying their heads in the sand over the growing threat of a global epidemic of avian flu, argues a GP in this week's BMJ.

Disasters like the Asian Tsunami "pale into insignificance" compared to the human cost of an influenza pandemic, says Dr Higson, which will wipe out "hundreds of millions" of lives if it is not prevented.

A recent report in the BMJ showed that avian flu (called H5N1) is beginning to jump from human to human - as opposed to transmission from bird to human only, as happened initially. This vastly increases the potential for spreading the virus across the population, as infection no longer depends on direct contact with diseased birds.


Medical News

Oh, that BMJ is no off-beat publication, (it's the British Medical Journal)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')sterholm says world isn't ready for flu pandemic
Robert Roos News Editor


May 5, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – A bleak picture of the world's ability to cope with an influenza pandemic is painted in an essay by infectious-disease and bioterrorism expert Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, in this week's New England Journal of Medicine.

A pandemic emerging today would find the world severely short of vaccine production capacity and medical supplies and could bring the global economy to a standstill, writes Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the Web site.

"We need bold and timely leadership at the highest level of the governments in the developed world; these governments must recognize the economic, security, and health threats posed by the next influenza pandemic and invest accordingly," Osterholm asserts.

He says that if the H5N1 avian flu virus now circulating in Asia sparks the next pandemic, it is more likely to mimic the disastrous pandemic of 1918 than the milder events of 1957 and 1968. Such a plague could kill 1.7 million people in the United States and from 180 million to 360 million worldwide, he estimates.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 52 people in Asia in the past 17 months but has shown very limited ability to spread from person to person. If it gained the ability right now to spread quickly among humans while remaining highly virulent, the world would face a grim situation, Osterholm writes.
"There would be a scramble to stop the virus from entering other countries by greatly reducing or even prohibiting foreign travel and trade. The global economy would come to a halt, and since we could not expect appropriate vaccines to be available for many months and we have very limited stockpiles of antiviral drugs, we would be facing a 1918-like scenario."

It would take at least 6 months to produce a vaccine, and with current production capacity, the best that could be expected would be to have fewer than 1 billion doses of vaccine initially, he writes. Since two doses per person might be necessary, that might cover only 500 million people, or about 14% of the world population. Further, the world would face severe shortages of other products and services, including mechanical ventilators, antiviral drugs, and even food.


Osterholm

Some background info:

European Public Health Alliance
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Unread postby PhilBiker » Fri 06 May 2005, 08:12:27

If Avian Flu killed 1/5 or more of the population it would be amazing. Nature would be showing us that it still can do what it's always done for population control. We couldn't do a thing about it.
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Fri 06 May 2005, 13:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hai Binh Haiphong and Quang Ninh H5N1 Clusters

Recombinomics Commentary
April 6, 2005

The clusters of bird flu in northern Vietnam have merged and now cover the northeastern coastline of Vietnam adjacent to Haiphong Harbor.

The three provinces, Thai Binh, Haiphong, and Quang Ninh have the three largest clusters in terms of members admitted on the same day (Haiphong), longest transmission chain including two health care workers (Thai Binh), and first heath care worker fatality (Quang Ninh).

There is clear human-to-human transmission going on in this region, which led to the executive order on April 1 in the US authorizing bird flu quarantine.

Quang Ninh is adjacent to China, and the four cases at the Vietnam-Sweden hospital are ringing alarm bells loudly.

The flu pandemic of 2005 has clearly begun.


Vietnam_Clusters

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uang Ninh Physician Death Linked to H5N1

....The death of a health care work linked to a hospital where there was no reported contact with H5N1 patients is a clear example of efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1 avian influenza.


Physician Death


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ird Flu - End of the World as We Know It?
"An influenza pandemic of even moderate impact will result in the biggest single human disaster ever - far greater than AIDS, 9/11, all wars in the 20th century and the recent tsunami combined. It has the potential to redirect world history as the Black Death redirected European history in the 14th century."

-- Michael T. Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota

Source: Bird Flu Could Kill Millions, The Gazette (Montreal), Front Page, March 9, 2005.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"This is going to be the most catastrophic thing in my lifetime. When this situation unfolds, we will shut down global markets overnight. There will not be movement of goods; there will not be movement of people. This will last for at least a year, maybe two."

-- Dr. Osterholm, speaking to a conference of agricultural bankers

Source: Bird Flu Seen as the Next Pandemic Star Tribune (Minneapolis), November 16, 2004 (reproduced at http://www.pathobiologics.org/ivphc/ref/ahn_112204.html).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months.... We are half a step away from a worldwide pandemic catastrophe."

-- Dmitry K. Lvov, Director, D.I. Ivanovsky Institute of Virology, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences

Source: Russian Expert Says Flu Epidemic May Kill Over One Billion This Year, MosNews.com, November 28, 2004


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Thus, H5N1 is clearly transmitting efficiently in northeastern Vietnam. However, since many of the cases are mild, most of this transmission is not being detected and/or reported. The time between this efficient transmission in northeast Vietnam, and a pandemic resulting in millions of fatalities may be weeks or months, but the efficient transmission is the missing requirement for the start of the pandemic, and that requirement has now been met."

-- Henry L. Niman, Founder and President, Recombinomics, Inc.

Source: Efficient Transmission of H5N1 in Northeast Vietnam, Recombinomics Commentary, April 7, 2005



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')gt;> I know that many of you have dedicated your careers to this field. In the short time that I have been Secretary of Health and Human Services, I have become acutely aware of the disastrous public health impact that an influenza pandemic could have throughout the world. This is one of the most urgent health challenges we face, and I've made it a top HHS priority. Recently, I increased my briefing frequency on the flu to daily......

In order to increase our readiness against a pandemic strain of influenza, last Friday, on my recommendation, President Bush added pandemic influenza to the list of quarantinable events. This gives HHS the authority to take steps to prevent people with a new or reemerging influenza virus from infecting others by stopping them at our borders. <<

The above remarks by US Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, support the comment that an H5N1 infection of a 34 year-old physician at Vietnam-Sweden hospital in Quang Ninh led to the executive order of April 1, allowing the US to quarantine bird flu cases.

The monitoring of the outbreak in the US has been elevated to a daily briefing, which almost certainly includes additional notifications of unusual events. Therefore, when the physician developed Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) on Friday, April 1, in Vietnam (Thursday night in the US), he was probably tested with a quick test for H5N1. When he tested positive, an alert was issued.

This alert then went to HHS in the US, which resulted in the recommendation for the executive order, which was signed on April 1.


If you fail to heed these warnings, you do so at your peril.
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Unread postby CarnbY » Fri 06 May 2005, 18:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'I')f it gained the ability right now to spread quickly among humans while remaining highly virulent, the world would face a grim situation, Osterholm writes.

It said somewhere else that it became less lethal in order to become more transmissive, can it do both?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'T')he virus clear has all of its ducks in row, and humans are simply sitting ducks, unaware or unconcerned about the looming mayhem in the fall.

What happens in the fall?

Thanks for keeping us updated.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 06 May 2005, 19:35:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarnbY', '
')What happens in the fall?
Speaking of getting the ducks lined up in a row, I'm wondering just what may go down before this year is up. disease? market crash in October, perhaps? oil superspike when we finally cross over to insufficient global supplies to meet demand? suitcase nuke?
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Fri 06 May 2005, 19:41:15

Perhaps this might help some:

Influenza Basics

W.H.O. Influenza Page

CDC Influenza Page

Others should find these pages helpful

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')umulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) since 28 January 2004

4 May 2005

Country/ Territory Total cases Deaths
Cambodia 4 4
Thailand 17 12
Viet Nam 68 36
Total 89 52

Notes

Total number of cases includes number of deaths.
WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases
WHO H5N1 Lab-Confirmed Cases



This is also very helpful background on why you should stay up-to-date on these developments...

WHO Avian Influenza Fact Sheet

Browsing around the rest of the site in these links should also be informative.

Carnby asks: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat happens in the fall?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/]1918 Spanish Flu Pattern[/url]

The origins of this influenza variant is not precisely known. It is thought to have originated in China in a rare genetic shift of the influenza virus. The recombination of its surface proteins created a virus novel to almost everyone and a loss of herd immunity. Recently the virus has been reconstructed from the tissue of a dead soldier and is now being genetically characterized. The name of Spanish Flu came from the early affliction and large mortalities in Spain (BMJ,10/19/1918) where it allegedly killed 8 million in May (BMJ, 7/13/1918). However, a first wave of influenza appeared early in the spring of 1918 in Kansas and in military camps throughout the US. Few noticed the epidemic in the midst of the war. Wilson had just given his 14 point address. There was virtually no response or acknowledgment to the epidemics in March and April in the military camps. It was unfortunate that no steps were taken to prepare for the usual recrudescence of the virulent influenza strain in the winter. The lack of action was later criticized when the epidemic could not be ignored in the winter of 1918 (BMJ, 1918). These first epidemics at training camps were a sign of what was coming in greater magnitude in the fall and winter of 1918 to the entire world.

The war brought the virus back into the US for the second wave of the epidemic. It first arrived in Boston in September of 1918 through the port busy with war shipments of machinery and supplies. The war also enabled the virus to spread and diffuse. Men across the nation were mobilizing to join the military and the cause. As they came together, they brought the virus with them and to those they contacted. The virus killed almost 200,00 in October of 1918 alone. In November 11 of 1918 the end of the war enabled a resurgence. As people celebrated Armistice Day with parades and large partiess, a complete disaster from the public health standpoint, a rebirth of the epidemic occurred in some cities. The flu that winter was beyond imagination as millions were infected and thousands died. Just as the war had effected the course of influenza, influenza affected the war. Entire fleets were ill with the disease and men on the front were too sick to fight. The flu was devastating to both sides, killing more men than their own weapons could.


Basically, the flu comes in waves, it is always changing, and the pattern is seasonal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nfluenza: A Short History of the Disease

......Historical Overview:

Historically, influenza has followed unpredictable patterns, occurring at irregular intervals and varying in intensity.

In the past, pandemics (global epidemics) have had intervals as varied as from ten to forty-nine years. The eighteenth century witnessed roughly eight flu pandemics; the nineteenth century witnessed five pandemics and the twentieth century witnessed three significant pandemics.

Generally, influenza has been a disease of the colder months but there have been some exceptions to this. The most notable of these occurred in 1918-1919; that year, the first wave of the epidemic occurred in the spring with the second and lethal wave erupting in the fall. The second exception was the 1781-1782 pandemic, when the peak of the epidemic occurred in mid-summer. Both the 1918-1919 pandemic and its predecessor in 1781-1782 were especially virulent pandemics.

P.H.S. Inlfluenza - A Short History
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Fri 06 May 2005, 19:57:04

And this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have found that most diseases actually have a seasonal incidence. For example, diarrheal diseases have been known to be highest in the summer months, influenza highest in winter months. The assumption has been, well, it's simply the fact that there's more pollution. In the summer, we tend to drink water that may have more bacteria in it. In the case of influenza, we're crowded in rooms and therefore we have more person-to-person contact. They're rather simplistic, maybe not necessarily fallacious, but simplistic explanations of the infectious disease.

But now we understand that in fact cold viruses may have a predilection for the tissues of the nasal passages when the temperature's somewhat lower as it is in winter months, hence the winter months may be a time when we have greater risk for cold virus infections.

Rita Colwell, PhD

Dr. Colwell is a Marine Microbiologist and serves at the President of the National Science Foundation.

Expert Says


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he worst pandemic of influenza ever recorded was caused by the 1918 Spanish influenza virus. Emotional reports of fit and healthy soldiers falling down on parade and dying the same or the next day are recorded (1). An initial mild wave of infection occurred in the spring of 1918 and the lethal wave appeared throughout the world, in the fall. At least 20 million persons died worldwide and probably 10 times that number were affected. The origin of this virus and the basis of high pathogenicity have remained elusive for the virus is not available for study.

Spanish Flu Info



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom 1974 to 1985, the typical seasonal pattern of influenza epidemics was for activity to begin in late December and peak in mid-February. This was the pattern for 9 of 11 years, but a distinct exception to this pattern occurred in 1991 when school outbreaks began in the Houston area beginning the last week of October. The epidemic peaked in mid-November and was over by Christmas. In Texas, the tendency for earlier epidemics has accelerated since 2000. Epidemic disease has been recognized in Texas by early November in 3 of the last 4 years. After an absence of 5 years, influenza A(H1N1) virus reappeared in the summer of 2000, when an outbreak in a children's summer camp in central Texas began during the Fourth of July weekend.10 The spread was dampened by universal administration of amantadine to all campers and staff (∼600 persons), none of whom was ill with an influenza-like illness when the camp adjourned in early August. However, the same virus was documented to be epidemic in Austin, TX by the first week of November 2000.

Influenza Seasonal Pattern Earlier


and this

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')igure 1 depicts the raw time series of weekly number of deaths from pneumonia and influenza in the United States, France, and Australia, normalized by population size. The series show a typical seasonal pattern, with large interannual variability in the amplitude of epidemics in all three countries. The pneumonia and influenza death series for Australia appears less smooth than for the United States or France, probably because of noise effects caused by the smaller population size of Australia, representing 7% of the population size of the United States and 32% of that of France.


Flu Seasonality Reference
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Fri 06 May 2005, 20:47:06

Carnby said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t said somewhere else that it became less lethal in order to become more transmissive, can it do both?


There is a discussion of the trade-off between lethality and transmissibility here:

Peak Oil Thread

But from what I've read the theory is that the more lethal a virus is, the quicker it kills its hosts, and thus, has less chance to survive itself. Thus, it may exchange some lethality for more tranmissibility in the form of genetic changes. It is I think a basic principle of parasites basically.

In reply to the earlier comment to the effect that when the numbers get bigger, he'll be more concerned...

There's a funny thing that happens with exponential processes. Take a penny, then double it each day. Now tell me how many pennies you have in 30 days....Now imagine if you started with one penny, then tripled it every day...Tell me how many you'd have in 30 days. And no, you wouldn't have just triple the result in the earlier answer...(!) :)

Even more so with infectious diseases such as influenza, I'm afraid. You could have a virus as communicable as the flu spread the globe in weeks or a few months...You just won't have the luxury of time, is what I'm saying, when you finally recognize it as a problem...

With the flu, the incubation period can vary, but it generally takes one to four days - on average two days - for a person exposed to the flu virus to develop symptoms. Once the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak, the exponential process takes over, and it's extremely difficult to stop until it's run its course.

Here's a link to a site that models an earlier flu epidemic (not a pandemic)
It's a flash demonstration.

makingthemodernworld

EDIT: Spelling change, and added:

Ever see that movie "Outbreak" with Dustin Hoffman? The part where his team computer models a possible infection scenario? Kind of like that in a worst case scenario. If 25% of 300 Million in the US are infected, and the mortality rate is 20%, then that means 15 Million deaths. Yikes!
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Sun 08 May 2005, 14:32:01

Sorry about the formatting - unable to find which line caused it.

Here's an article with a fairly good synopsis of the problem as well as being a good primer:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')arning: Avian flu pandemic looming
Abram Katz, Register Science Editor05/08/2005

A global wave of death and disease may be gathering in Asia, and America’s only defense is 2.3 million doses of anti-influenza medication.


Although a flu pandemic is impossible to predict, the avian influenza virus festering in several Asian countries shows ominous warning signs, doctors, epidemiologists and other experts warn.

New Haven Register
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Sun 08 May 2005, 21:02:25

Oh my.

There may be over a THOUSAND cases of H5N1 (bird flu) that WHO was unable to detect (false negative - had H5N1, but test was negative)....see this... be ready for a NASTY W.H.O. announcement in the next few days or weeks...

No Primer to Test With

Pandemic Flu False Negatives in Vietnam and Korea

Bird flu tests out-of-date, may have missed cases

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anadian Press

TORONTO — A diagnostic test designed by Canadian researchers and used in Vietnam to detect H5N1 avian flu is out of date, scientists from the National Microbiology Laboratory admit -- raising the possibility some human cases may have been dismissed in error.

The test was designed at the Winnipeg lab using genetic sequencing information from samples of the virus that circulated in the first quarter of 2004. But the virus has changed enough since then that questions have surfaced about the test's sensitivity.

Tracking the virus's forays into and among humans is critical, given fears that H5N1 may acquire the ability to easily transmit from person to person, sparking an influenza pandemic.

"Well, you have to be concerned," says Dr. Earl Brown, a virologist at the University of Ottawa who specializes in influenza evolution. Brown was not involved in the design of the test.


Dr. Niman, virologist, Harvard Medical School, estimates that WHO has missed 80% of bird flu cases in Vietnam...which means this virus, likely transmitting human-to-human, has had an unfortunate head start...

Not only that, but WSN/33 is about to go into the news cycle, big time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')HO shoudl (sic) definitely know by now that they made a major error, but I have not heard their response, which they will have to give to many, because many know they know.
I will be doing a mytharc interview tonight. I believe it will be online tomorrow. It will be VERY detailed......

I don't think WHO can make the WSN/33 announcement until Korea officially notifies them, but at this point I don't think that they have any choice. Too many now know the real deal.

I suspect that when it becomes official, many will ask many questions, and this time they will get answers instead of stories about accidental upload of the wrong sequence file.

-Dr. Niman


Scandalous Non-Investigation of Human WSN/33 in Swine


8O

For more detail, listen to this mp3 interview from Friday eve....

Dr. Niman WSN/33 Interview (mp3)

Personally, I think the cases represented this spring will be smaller and milder than what may come later...we may be in for a rude awakening....and, I pray not.....
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Unread postby OilsNotWell » Sun 08 May 2005, 21:10:29

Here's a quote from someone who's wants to say how he really feels...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's not that WHO didn't look; it's that they couldn't see!

WHO and the Vietnamese, without the correct primer, could not see.

They didn't have the correct primer because they don't believe in recombination.
After all, it's an internet "disease" or some such, isn't it?

Their now tragic failure to accept recombination has resulted, imo, in NON-DETECTION of thousands of cases of H5N1. The world (that's us) has lost the precious little time it had over the past 6 months to find out how the disease is evolving and step up world plans for it.

Even now, though new primers are being developed, possibly, in Canada and the USA, we have been F___ed, courtesy of Webster et al.

What amazes me is that WHO will now generate new primers but refuse to recognize recombination.

One stupid question to the great brains of WHO, "Why are you developing new primers when the virus has not reassorted??????"

WHO shall be damned here?

WHO Isn't Seeing


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