[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')If a serious/curious reporter strays onto a site like this, they see so many "zombies are coming soon" and similar alarmist posts that they don't then take the time to garner enough info to take the issue seriously, IMO.

One would think that thoughtful people would at least give being CAUTIOUS some credibility.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')

The way I look at it , post peak there is a good chance there will be cheap plentiful oil available

For the few rich ,

most folks will have been pauperized , thus depressing their demand
.

[sparky]

.

A pretty reasonable spread of ideas from a capitalist rag ( but a good one ! )

" The real question about peak oil "
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b60301ce-82eb ... abdc0.html

Some of the stuff can be argued about but they are definitely on board Peak Oil

I quite like the last paragraph about wage arbitration theory ,in summary
when transport price rise , globalization go into reverse


.

[rangerone314]

6 big questions:

1) How much MORE will demand in India and China increase?

2) How much "FAT" can the US cut in terms of petroleum usage?

3) What year does the plateau end? (2014?)

4) What % does oil production decline at globally once we are past the plateau?

5) Taking into account #1-#4, how many solar panels and battery powered cars would need to be brought online each year after production decline, to take up the yearly decline in oil production.

6) Compared to #5, what amount of solar panels & electric cars can REALISTICALLY be brought online year to year, and what price per mile of driving would result from the expected shortfall?

If we can answer the above 6, then we know how long and severe a "long tail" decline will be (barring a black swan, like Iran War or Taiwan War, or a Ras Tanura incident)

[sparky]

.

The oil consumption of neighboring countries is

______________bl/day_______population______bl/day per Mp

Taiwan ............816.700..................23......................35508

Japan ............5,353,00.................130......................41176

South Korea .....2,130,000..............50......................42600

China ...........6,930,000...............1,336......................5187

Interestingly the three neighbors have number quite close for a similar lifestyle


if China want to reach the consuming power of Taiwan ,as would be acceptable to Beijing ,
the 35508 Bl/day per million people would require 40 millions barrel a day extra
or a 120 Mbl/d world production

I doubt if production can even reach the 90 Mbl/d for a couple of year

India's number are of the same order ,

I don't know how much fat the U.S. can loose before the politics become feral
my hunch is not so much as ten percent , if using cars with 1liter motors

Plateau ? it could be an ever decreasing series of peak and troughs for all we know
following boom and bust economic conditions ( mostly bust )

The decline rate can be guesstimated only as 5 % a year ,
it seems that the deeper the wells the faster the rate ,
there was a paper from Upsala Uni on it
Now with the all big new fields are deep

No amount of solar panel can compensate depletion, they use more fossil energy to manufacture than they produce , a solar panel array cannot power a solar panel factory ,
Wind is a bit better ,
it break even eventually but cannot generate the spare available power needed

the tail profile will probably depend as much on demand suppression as raw production number




.













.

[Loki]

Thanks for the link KevO. I like this quote from Arup's chairman, a very succinct encapsulation of the problem we face: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil prices have the potential to destabilize economic, political and social activity."

[TheDude]

More specifically for China the numbers by sector are:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1352 1489 1673 1776 1853 1983 2175
1791 1945 2285 2528 2723 2879 3178
792 880 956 904 938 892 716
1352 1489 1858 1777 1867 1988 1930
5288 5803 6772 6984 7382 7742 7999')

Light distillates
Middle distillates
Fuel oil
Others
Total

Interesting that their fuel oil use contracted. It's been pretty flat over the decades; it was at the start of the 90s when the other sectors began to skyrocket.

[eastbay]

Por una feliz futuro, solamente una mas Ghawar cada ano. Solamente. Buena suerte amigos.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'M')ore specifically for China the numbers by sector are:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1352 1489 1673 1776 1853 1983 2175
1791 1945 2285 2528 2723 2879 3178
792 880 956 904 938 892 716
1352 1489 1858 1777 1867 1988 1930
5288 5803 6772 6984 7382 7742 7999')

Light distillates
Middle distillates
Fuel oil
Others
Total

Interesting that their fuel oil use contracted. It's been pretty flat over the decades; it was at the start of the 90s when the other sectors began to skyrocket.

[sparky]

.
In 2008 China moved away fro a subventioned / rationed system of distribution for consumers
the state refineries were bound to sell diesel below cost in the home market
while prices of crude skyrocketed ,
they made a killing selling oversea and shorting their home consumers
trucks transport even the harvest farm machinery were suffering drastic shortage
so they abandoned the subventioned price ( slowly )
The price rise didn't affect the economy so much ,
If you wanted any , the real price was black market driven

.

[misterno]

where is the link?

[KevO]

where's the first original thread with the link in?

but it was this
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.html

[sparky]

.

On the Chinese problem with fuel during 2007-8

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Busi ... 5Cb01.html

http://www.china.org.cn/english/business/239603.htm

http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... -16qd.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23776742/