[Daniel_Plainview]

Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch
For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 9:32PM GMT 18 Feb 2010

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (£64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '[')url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7266837/Barclays-and-Bank-of-America-see-looming-oil-crunch.html]Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch[/url]
For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years. bite now," said Barclays.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '[')url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7266837/Barclays-and-Bank-of-America-see-looming-oil-crunch.html]Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch[/url]
For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years. bite now," said Barclays.

[yesplease]

In this case I think a stronger dollar and rising oil prices are both due speculation that America is coming out of the recession. As usual, there are going to be pundits screaming about anything and everything, but I still can't get around newz organizations blatantly making shiz up.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I')t appears to me oil price will increase with the falling dollar, right ??

[mcgowanjm]

Excellent charts. The $ must strengthen. Until the
US is isolated. Only then will Zimbabwe antics
come into play.

The US now has no choice but retreat.
Money velocity moves to zero as any debt created
is a negative factor for the economy.

We've been doing ZIRP since 1982. Game's up.

Crude $29.75 by Xmas.

But it will be more expensive than it is now.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Thralen', 'A')s a side note, is anyone else as amused as I am at the 10 people who, in the poll in the entry screen, chose $50-$70 as the highest price oil would hit this year? Several of them chose that option after we were into 2010 and the price was already above that level. Demonstrates just how the blinders can keep people from seeing reality, don't you think?

Thralen

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Crude $29.75 by Xmas.

But it will be more expensive than it is now.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Crude $29.75 by Xmas.

But it will be more expensive than it is now.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '[')url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7266837/Barclays-and-Bank-of-America-see-looming-oil-crunch.html]Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch[/url]
For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years. bite now," said Barclays.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')In 2008 it was a plateau at $167/bbl. Now its $30/bbl by Xmas.

[davep]

sos, your trolling is getting dull. OK, so we may be past global peak, but we're also in a deep recession. Therefore demand has gone down. We may see another peak over the next three years, or maybe we won't. But after that, I think it's downhill.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 's')os, your trolling is getting dull. OK, so we may be past global peak, but we're also in a deep recession.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')re we even IN a recession at this point?

[Geodesic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')e may very well see a defaltionary spiral, and yes oil could go well below where it is. Do not doubt that at all. We are rapidly approaching some sort of "event horizon" where we see a few things laid bare. I see three things which need to be addressed either by getting in front of them, or they get worked through by collpase of certain systems.

1. Bank Asset fraud

2. Deflationary spiral (followed by another very large leg down in both US and global markets) This is coupled with a bond market dislocation.

3. Dollar collapse.

Each one has its problems and we dont know about a timeline, but one of those is how this crap gets played out. I doubt presently that we have the leadership ability in either finance or government to sidestep the many landmines leading to big problems. While it may be possible to solve all of them, it will be nothing short of miraculous for this to occur.
In any event oil has a very large chance to pullback in the nearer term. if you can hang on though, long term looks very bullish for both Oil and NG. I'm talking about outside 3-5 years here.

[AirlinePilot]

I am simply playing the ups and downs on the S&P 500 with an ultra short fund and some USO for oil moves. I am careful with my stops and just watch things play out according to global news and events. I dont make tons, but I do make money. I do hold a large chunk of very cheap USO and I am waiting patiently for the next spike, I know its coming, just not exactly when Im out of the market completely except for those two things and sitting in cash. At some point none of this may work and much depends on how quickly things can go downhill with the dollar or with the banking system.

I think there is a lot of blatant manipulation going on lately and its hard to use traditional methods as they just wont work. Fundamentals dont make sense when the Government is buying so much of its debt and adding such ridiculous amounts of stimulus to the economy. Its all gonna break at some point and how you exit and with what may be the key to doing well or not, at least for a while. In the end I think most of us little guys here in the US are screwed.

[Geodesic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') am simply playing the ups and downs on the S&P 500 with an ultra short fund and some USO for oil moves. I am careful with my stops and just watch things play out according to global news and events. I dont make tons, but I do make money. I do hold a large chunk of very cheap USO and I am waiting patiently for the next spike, I know its coming, just not exactly when