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PeakOil is You

THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 1 (merged) A

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Unread postby nth » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 19:04:22

smiley, sorry. i didn't mean to say you were wrong. :P
they are deceptive in giving out one number and then comparing to another number. they don't standardize with one set of numbers.
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Unread postby RonMN » Fri 15 Apr 2005, 19:42:51

OK...so we peaked in october...do the same as if we peaked in march...

RUN OUT & BUY A HIGH QUALITY SHOVEL & HAMMER & A FEW BOXES OF NAILS BEFORE EVERYBODY ELSE FINDS OUT!!! :P
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IEA tells us how to save oil

Unread postby thegrq » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 14:02:15

The IEA just released a study titled "How to save oil in a hurry". They were saying that the most cost effective methods to save oil in a hurry are to promote telecommuting and flexible work schedules, 'ecodriving', car-pooling, odd/even day driving bans, and in some cases, speed reduction policies. Car pool and driving restrictions would shave at least a million barrels a day off of what we use now. This report will probably be another one just ignored and thrown out the drain.
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IEA grapples with oil supply scare

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Tue 03 May 2005, 09:15:09

World's richest nations meet to discuss securing supplies, keeping crude prices from hurting growth.

CNN
"Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett

"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
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IEA Peak Oil in 2010

Unread postby nth » Fri 06 May 2005, 12:29:52

IEA reports PO in 2010 for non-OPEC. Did you guys discuss about this? Anyone know any official comments about this? Do government officials and oil industry executives comment on this? Thanks.
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Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Fri 06 May 2005, 17:55:11

I know the IEA predicted Global Peak Oil a while back in 2008/2009.

Quoting from an article from the EIA called towards a sustainable future:

Page 28: The availability of oil reserves has been assessed with the help of an analytical tool called the "Hubbert curve," which indicates the rate at which reserves are transformed over time. The area under the Hubbert curve corresponds to total available reserves (see example below). Based on a reading of the curve alone, the IEA's world energy outlook 1998 stated that oil production would peak as early as 2008/2009. When technological progress is accoutned for, the area under the curve expands and, in the 1998 Outlook, changes its shape, with the right-hand tail becoming thicker.
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Unread postby nth » Fri 06 May 2005, 18:45:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') know the IEA predicted Global Peak Oil a while back in 2008/2009. Quoting from an article from the EIA called towards a sustainable future:
Page 28: .. When technological progress is accoutned for, the area under the curve expands and, in the 1998 Outlook, changes its shape, with the right-hand tail becoming thicker.

Wow, in 1998, they already predicted 2008/9. I guess EIA is calling it bluff, since they screwed up in the past too.
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Unread postby Chrissib » Fri 06 May 2005, 19:10:02

I think that Peak Oil is between 2010 and 2020.
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Unread postby nth » Fri 06 May 2005, 20:08:20

$16 trillion dollars needed to secure supplies for next 25 years.
No way we have that much money to invest.
Insane!
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Unread postby nth » Fri 06 May 2005, 20:24:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chrissib', 'I') think that Peak Oil is between 2010 and 2020.


Actually, I thought most geologists in oil industry are saying 2020-2050. I hear very few people saying we have enough cheap oil to meet surging demands. They often say as oil prices go up, people will switch to other fuels. Technology will solve it.

Maybe they mean technology will produce more oil. :P
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Unread postby Tanada » Fri 06 May 2005, 23:58:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '$')16 trillion dollars needed to secure supplies for next 25 years.
No way we have that much money to invest.
Insane!


LOL, just one more case of a 'crat picking numbers out of the air. There is no way at all you can project a real budget more than 2 years, too many pollitical factors make a roller coaster of anything publically budgeted.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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IEA forecasts demand dropping.

Unread postby nth » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:32:57

Do people actually see demand dropping?
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Unread postby FoxV » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:38:42

only if walking suddenly comes into fashion

What are the chances :lol:
Angry yet?
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Unread postby RonMN » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:43:29

as far as the average person is considered...no.

But i know a few truckers who wont take alot of jobs because of fuel prices...1 is being forclosed on (his home) and he still has to refuse work because he would actually lose money...on some 2 day trips he might come home with $50 for his efforts.
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Unread postby bruin » Thu 12 May 2005, 15:45:29

Well demand destruction is certainly already happening. There are many stories of those using less fuel for driving or heating in the news today.

The biggest problem is all the new homes being built and that creates a whole new source of enery needs. And this gets back to interest rates being artificially low.

Once interest rates finally head north, we'll see a drop in demand. Of course crude oil prices will only be going north as well.
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Unread postby earthman » Thu 12 May 2005, 16:00:34

Typically, in the U.S., summer sees an increase in demand as more people are driving longer distances, but the increase in gas prices could decrese demand if people intentionally drive less.
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Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 12 May 2005, 16:01:44

The IEA is not forecasting demand dropping, it has revised its projections for demand growth

The agency still forecasts an increase in demand for 2005 over 2004: from time to time they adjust that demand growth forecast slightly. Total projected demand for 2005 remains around 84 million barrels a day.
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Unread postby nth » Thu 12 May 2005, 16:13:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'T')he IEA is not forecasting demand dropping, it has revised its projections for demand growth The agency still forecasts an increase in demand for 2005 over 2004: from time to time they adjust that demand growth forecast slightly. Total projected demand for 2005 remains around 84 million barrels a day.

demand drop in US, EU, China. demand increase in oil producing countries. overall demand increase. I fail to see demand drop in US. EIA numbers don't support. Am I wrong?
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Unread postby johnmarkos » Thu 12 May 2005, 16:20:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'd')emand drop in US, EU, China. demand increase in oil producing countries. overall demand increase. I fail to see demand drop in US. EIA numbers don't support. Am I wrong?

Can you please point me to the source for these numbers? Thanks.
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Unread postby nth » Thu 12 May 2005, 16:58:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')demand drop in US, EU, China. demand increase in oil producing countries. overall demand increase. I fail to see demand drop in US. EIA numbers don't support. Am I wrong?
Can you please point me to the source for these numbers? Thanks.

Here is the EIA numbers: link

As for the IEA, I didn't look at them. I just read the news quote.
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