[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'M')adagascar is bleeding to death. How many years do you think they've got? The population will double in 23 odd years, from 20 million to 40 million.

Sustainable?

See post immediately above. The hills of Italy are covered with grape vines, olive tree orchards, rows of tomato plants and who knows what else. Why haven't the Italians all died off due to unsustainability by now?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlinkBlink', 'T')he erosion is caused by agriculture.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith its rivers running blood red and staining the surrounding Indian Ocean, astronauts have remarked that it looks as if Madagascar is bleeding to death. This insightful observation highlights one of Madagascar's greatest environmental problems—soil erosion. Deforestation of Madagascar's central highlands has resulted in widespread soil erosion, which in some areas may top 400 tons/ha per year. For Madagascar, a country that relies on agricultural production for the foundation of its economy, the loss of this soil is especially costly.

[hillsidedigger]

Has anyone noticed what has happened in Mexico?

During the late 1930's, Mexico only had about 18 million people. Now, there are probably close to that many illegal Mexicans located within the United States with 110 million or so remaining in Mexico.

Thats about a 7X increase in 70 years. If it were to continue for the next 70 years Mexico would have more than twice as many people as currently does the United States. It can't and won't continue.

How much of Mexico is arid, high elevation land that has little potential for human carrying capacity? A lot.

If millions of desperate people were pushing against a wall a lot of the people would be crushed but the wall would fall.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ilfinder you failed at convincing anyone that new petroleum discoveries exceed extraction of oil reserves. Or that you find oil. Everything since has been a big tiresome distraction. This is certainly an example of that.

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') * JANUARY 13, 2010
Corn and Soybean Prices Plummet After Estimates of Record Crops
By IAN BERRY And SCOTT KILMAN

The U.S. government stunned commodity markets by estimating record corn and soybean crops for 2009, sending prices tumbling and prompting analysts to reassess their forecasts for the rest of the year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday increased its production estimates for both commodities. Analysts and traders on the Chicago Board of Trade expected the USDA's field surveys to detect smaller crops after a harvest season that was so slow that millions of Midwest acres remain unpicked.

The March corn futures contract, the most actively traded, dropped by the exchange's daily trading limit of 30 cents, or 7.1%, to $3.925 a bushel. The most-active March soybean contract dropped 3.2%, settling at $9.78 a bushel.

The department said U.S. farmers last year produced a record 13.2 billion bushels of corn, up 8.8% from 2008, and a record 3.36 billion bushels of soybeans, up 13% from last year.

The corn estimate, in particular, was "an astoundingly huge number," said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago. The forecast was higher than any of the 22 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones anticipated.

In addition to the big domestic crop, the soybean market also faces a record or near-record South American harvest. The USDA on Tuesday hiked the projected size of the Brazilian crop to a record 65 million tons.

[...]

[TheAntiDoomer]

^ wrong of2, don't you know we are going to all die horrible starving deaths this year? don't you know the guvemant is lyin' to us just to keep us distracted? Get with the program OF2!

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '^') wrong of2, don't you know we are going to all die horrible starving deaths this year? don't you know the guvemant is lyin' to us just to keep us distracted? Get with the program OF2!

[Novus]

So you really believe the USDA is lying? Would not be the first time the government ever lied but the USDA come on. Corn and Soybean futures are tumbling. If true the USDA managed to fool some of the best market insiders. A small fortune could be made buying these futures if shortages are months away but who is buying? This crisis you are peddling doesn't quite pass the sniff test.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'S')o you really believe the USDA is lying? Would not be the first time the government ever lied but the USDA come on. Corn and Soybean futures are tumbling. If true the USDA managed to fool some of the best market insiders. A small fortune could be made buying these futures if shortages are months away but who is buying? This crisis you are peddling doesn't quite pass the sniff test.

[mcgowanjm]

And Florida this past week did not help.

Note the patten there. If this happens Florida could be in trouble.
It's getting cold in Florida. Strawberries and oranges (always
from Florida, you never hear about their corn[May-June].

But then, we never get the update. That Florida's harvest has been
wiped out.

And over and over. Google FEMA agriculture disaster counties.
See how many there are, how you get declared a disaster county,
then tell me how you get a US Record Harvest in 09/10.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '^') wrong of2, don't you know we are going to all die horrible starving deaths this year? don't you know the guvemant is lyin' to us just to keep us distracted? Get with the program OF2!

[mcgowanjm]

Thanx again, AD. I love the fact that we're talking about Peak Grain following Peak Oil.

Of all the grains, wheat is the most plentiful. And India/China are in trouble. With Wheat. So is the Ukraine. And Australia. Down 35%.

But you want to talk about corn and soy You bet.

A bushel of soy costs $16.00 in China. $10 in the US. Weird, huh?

We have never shipped more soy/corn in the first 4 months of a crop year. 10 MMT of corn/soy still in the field, which the USDA is still evidently counting.

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Indian Wheat Crop May Top Record, Farm Secretary Says
February 09, 2010, 11:50 PM EST
By Pratik Parija

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The wheat crop in India, the world’s second-biggest grower, may exceed last year’s record on increased plantings, said Farm Secretary T. Nanda Kumar.

Production may be “marginally higher than” the 80.58 million tons gathered last year, Nanda Kumar, who is responsible for formulating agriculture policy, said in an interview.

A record crop for a second year may help Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cool food price increases that are the highest in a decade after a drought damaged harvests of rice, oilseeds and sugar cane. Rising food costs represented 80 percent of inflation in December, when wholesale prices rose an annual 7.3 percent, the fastest pace since November 2008.

“Area is up, and productivity parameters are the same as last year so logically it should be higher,” Nanda Kumar said in New Delhi. “It will definitely be the same as last year.”

Should wheat production at least equal last year’s total, which is “a good crop and is much more than we can consume, I suppose we will end up with surpluses,” he said. The crop, planted from October and harvested from February, represents 70 percent of the country’s winter-sown grains.

[...]

[mcgowanjm]

Martell has a different take on India:

The vegetation index in Northwest India has been persistently bad, reflecting stress throughout December and January. Sub-par wheat yields seem likely in the normally productive irrigated wheat states, Punjab and Haryana. The Pakistan wheat potential looks terrible in the northern growing areas bordering India. January was particularly dry.

http://www.martellcropprojections.com/

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')arch 9,2010 Brazil Expecting Near-Record Harvest
RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil will bring in a grain harvest of 145.1 million tons this year, a volume very close to the record 145.8 million tons gathered in 2008, the government said Monday.

The production of grains, legumes and oil-plants in 2010 will be 8.5 percent greater than in 2009, according to forecasts by the IBGE statistics agency on the basis of February field data. The lastest estimate is an improvement on the previous one, which was based on data gathered in January, and according to which production for this year would reach 143.4 million tons.

Land under cultivation will grow by 1.5 percent compared with 2009, eventually reaching 47.9 million hectares (118.27 million acres), the IBGE said. Crop growth this year will be achieved mainly by the 17.4-percent boost to soybean production and a 2.6-percent increase in corn. [...]

[hillsidedigger]

"Brazil's grain production to rise 36% in 10 years

Brazil's grain production will rise 36.7 percent in the next decade, reaching 177.5 million tons by 2020, the country's Agriculture, Livestock and Supply Ministry said on Thursday.

The ministry said that about 75 percent of the extra production will be due to an increase in productivity caused by the evolution of agricultural techniques. The remaining 25 percent will be the result of an increase in the cultivated area in the country, which currently reaches about 60 million hectares and will reach 69.7 million hectares by 2020.

The Ministry also stated that the grain production will most likely grow at its current rate in the next ten years."

How can they know that?