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THE Petrobras Thread (merged)

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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 10:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')I'm just not comfortable with supposition being touted as fact, as you did.


supposition:an opinion or judgement based on little or no data.

I did not make a supposition, I analyzed data available spanning multiple, independent sources, examined peaker/ASPO common practice for calculating these declines and their chronological dependency and relationship through time.

A critical analysis strikes me as a much more accurate characterization. Feel free to offer your own......I am a huge fan of everyone doing their own analysis, certainly those who limit their world view to only statements by large scale authority figures and the MSM miss out on quite a bit of the obviously related detail available.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby davep » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 11:29:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')I'm just not comfortable with supposition being touted as fact, as you did.


supposition:an opinion or judgement based on little or no data.

I did not make a supposition, I analyzed data available spanning multiple, independent sources, examined peaker/ASPO common practice for calculating these declines and their chronological dependency and relationship through time.

A critical analysis strikes me as a much more accurate characterization. Feel free to offer your own......I am a huge fan of everyone doing their own analysis, certainly those who limit their world view to only statements by large scale authority figures and the MSM miss out on quite a bit of the obviously related detail available.


At least you've acknowledged there is nothing authoritative behind your assertion. That's fine for me.

The IEA did a field by field study around the world and got their figures from that. I'm not sure of anything approaching that level of detail we can turn to for previous years. But I welcome your attempt to pull the figures together from disparate sources for previous years, even if they can never really be globally accurate.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 19:54:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')At least you've acknowledged there is nothing authoritative behind your assertion. That's fine for me.


I would repeat myself, but if information available to the President, utilized by the IEA or standard industry practice going back more than a half century isn't "authoritative", certainly it would not matter.

Any conversation between individuals requires a common lexicon, as it were. It works quite well in the scientific community, everyone knows that 2+2=4, and they can advance from that commonly held position until a real disagreement emerges.

When the agenda is to simply try and discount a line of reasoning, without any information against the line of reasoning, but only using the phrase "it isn't authoritative", it means that the basics of 2+2 cannot be established to the satisfaction of both parties.

Cool by me.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 21:27:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I')ts Monday, do we have a definitive agreement YET on what the Petrobras CEO actually said?


Depends on who you mean when you say "we". ;)

I think these folks here get it.....

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petrobra ... is-now205/


Petrobras CEO: Peak Oil Production is Now
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 09 Feb 2010, 21:39:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I')ts Monday, do we have a definitive agreement YET on what the Petrobras CEO actually said?


Depends on who you mean when you say "we". ;)

I think these folks here get it.....

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petrobra ... is-now205/


Petrobras CEO: Peak Oil Production is Now


Ruppert, Deffeyes and Simmons: Peak Oil was 2005

A QUANDARY!
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby davep » Wed 10 Feb 2010, 03:55:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')At least you've acknowledged there is nothing authoritative behind your assertion. That's fine for me.


I would repeat myself, but if information available to the President, utilized by the IEA or standard industry practice going back more than a half century isn't "authoritative", certainly it would not matter.

Any conversation between individuals requires a common lexicon, as it were. It works quite well in the scientific community, everyone knows that 2+2=4, and they can advance from that commonly held position until a real disagreement emerges.

When the agenda is to simply try and discount a line of reasoning, without any information against the line of reasoning, but only using the phrase "it isn't authoritative", it means that the basics of 2+2 cannot be established to the satisfaction of both parties.

Cool by me.


I don't really see how using $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n amalgam of Jimmys number based on declines from long ago in the US, and the most recent claims of global decline by the IEA, which are 1% higher.
can be considered useful, as the IEA production decines were for 2008 when they did a field by field survey. There is little merit in assuming the figures were the same three years earlier. And Carter's figures weren't global, so were not relevant. For example, Canterell's production declines were just starting in 2005, but fell by up to 36% in 2008.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 10 Feb 2010, 10:34:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
I don't really see how using $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n amalgam of Jimmys number based on declines from long ago in the US, and the most recent claims of global decline by the IEA, which are 1% higher.
can be considered useful, as the IEA production decines were for 2008 when they did a field by field survey.


The IEA sampled fields, they did not survey them all.

Hook at ASPO did the same thing. As did Robelius.

If I recall correctly what I read from the last CERA report, they actually did a more thorough job, much closer to a "field by field" survey at the global level.

Lets not pretend these guys actually did more than it seems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
') There is little merit in assuming the figures were the same three years earlier.


Not only is assuming exactly that an industry standard, but its exactly what ASPO, Hook and Robelius assumed in their work. You can assign as much or as little merit to a practice as you wish of course, but the history of the practice is hard to deny based solely on your opinion of the practice. Unless you have experience in this type of analysis and have specific professional concerns about its validity?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
') And Carter's figures weren't global, so were not relevant. For example, Canterell's production declines were just starting in 2005, but fell by up to 36% in 2008.


All information is relevant. And if there is a "sweet spot" of field decline, in the 6% or 7% range, it shows up first in mature producing areas, which the US already was when Carter made his statement. All information is relevant....the physics of reservoir dynamics does not change because of political boundaries on the surface.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby davep » Wed 10 Feb 2010, 14:48:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')The IEA sampled fields, they did not survey them all.


From what I read of their report, they did the first ever comprehensive field by field report of all major fields.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll information is relevant. And if there is a "sweet spot" of field decline, in the 6% or 7% range, it shows up first in mature producing areas, which the US already was when Carter made his statement. All information is relevant....the physics of reservoir dynamics does not change because of political boundaries on the surface.


Actually, the older bigger fields are said by the IEA to be decreasing production at about 2 to 3%. It's the newer ones that are extracted more intensively which are showing far higher drops in production. This is why it is imprudent to assume the same production decline figures for previous years.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 10 Feb 2010, 21:01:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')The IEA sampled fields, they did not survey them all.


From what I read of their report, they did the first ever comprehensive field by field report of all major fields.


Well, their first ever maybe, and if you want to consider 800 fields of what, maybe 50,000 around the globe, as "comprehensive", you can.... I suppose. Hard to tell if its statistically significant without more information.

Even reading through some generic analysis like this:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4735

doesn't appear particularly helpful. I would particularly like to know how they assembled the Slide #7 example.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Actually, the older bigger fields are said by the IEA to be decreasing production at about 2 to 3%. It's the newer ones that are extracted more intensively which are showing far higher drops in production. This is why it is imprudent to assume the same production decline figures for previous years.


Yeah, well, the more I read into this thing the less I like it.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 11 Feb 2010, 17:07:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') knew I smelled a rat.

Absolutely nowhere in that Petrobras PDF does Gabrielli state that 2010 will be the peak of production . . ..

Pardon me for being so blunt, but . . . .

I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6206
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrobras', 'T')he post written by Anthony Eriksen (ace) right in its title makes an erroneous interpretation of the graph presented by Petrobras in December 2009. In no moment was the graph intended to provide an estimate of peak oil date. The mentioned slide was put together intending to show a reasonable estimate of the “challenges” that oil supply will face in the long term. . . . Once again, we do not believe it is possible to predict a peak oil date. In particular, we do not believe it will happen in 2010.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby JustaGirl » Thu 11 Feb 2010, 17:10:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') knew I smelled a rat.

Absolutely nowhere in that Petrobras PDF does Gabrielli state that 2010 will be the peak of production . . ..

Pardon me for being so blunt, but . . . .

I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6206
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrobras', 'T')he post written by Anthony Eriksen (ace) right in its title makes an erroneous interpretation of the graph presented by Petrobras in December 2009. In no moment was the graph intended to provide an estimate of peak oil date. The mentioned slide was put together intending to show a reasonable estimate of the “challenges” that oil supply will face in the long term. . . . Once again, we do not believe it is possible to predict a peak oil date. In particular, we do not believe it will happen in 2010.


wow Oilfinder, you hit the nail on the head 8O
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 11 Feb 2010, 17:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') knew I smelled a rat.

Absolutely nowhere in that Petrobras PDF does Gabrielli state that 2010 will be the peak of production . . ..

Pardon me for being so blunt, but . . . .

I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6206
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrobras', 'T')he post written by Anthony Eriksen (ace) right in its title makes an erroneous interpretation of the graph presented by Petrobras in December 2009. In no moment was the graph intended to provide an estimate of peak oil date. The mentioned slide was put together intending to show a reasonable estimate of the “challenges” that oil supply will face in the long term. . . . Once again, we do not believe it is possible to predict a peak oil date. In particular, we do not believe it will happen in 2010.



Airlinepilot time to show some humility and finally recognize that OF2 actually knows what he is talking about a lot of the time. It's high time you don't simply dismiss his information by name calling "oily" corny" etc etc.
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Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 11 Feb 2010, 20:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '
')Airlinepilot time to show some humility and finally recognize that OF2 actually knows what he is talking about a lot of the time. It's high time you don't simply dismiss his information by name calling "oily" corny" etc etc.


I agree. Its one thing, when data is minimal, or the seductive words of the false Prophets haven't been thoroughly investigated or understood to buy into the Dogma Of Doom, but as evidence comes forth, bad predictions come and go and the Prophets head for the hills ( or Venezuela, or Maine, or their own personal massage parlor ), those who ACCURATELY can ferret out the BS should be recognized for their abilities.

Kudos for Oily, and AirlineP should join in the serenade.
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 20:09:31

*crickets chirping*
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 22:00:29

pfffft. Go Read Rocmann's analysis over at TOD. I stand by his assessment of the entire debacle. A completey politically derived whitewash. But of course your right so i cant argue with you. :roll:
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 22:15:09

Read the ridiculous and OBVIOUSLY political and bulsh1t reply here at TOD.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6206#more

Then read the comments section.

What else would you expect them to say? I mean come on! Am I the only one who can see through the corporate smokescren this dolt is attempting to throw up?

I completely agree with Roccman there. He is blatantly making a ridiculous proposition as a result of political pressure on him. Accurately repeating a totally indifensable proposition doesn't make the proposition any more valid. If that were acceptable then anyone can make any totally ridiculous statement and rebuke any challenge by saying they were just repeating what someone else said. !!!!!!!!

Sounds eerily familiar. :cry:
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 22:21:48

So, according to your rationale, supposedly the CEO of Petrobras really did mean to say the peak of oil production capacity would be this year. And if that was the case there would supposedly not be any political motivations for such a proclamation.

But now that a spokesman from Petrobras has told us the CEO of Petrobras did *not* say the peak of oil production capacity would be this year (as I correctly pointed out), suddenly such a statement *is* politically motivated.

In other words, whenever someone says there is plenty of oil, or at least does not acknowledge a near-term peak, they are being motivated by politics only. But when someone says the peak is near or past, they *aren't* being motivated by politics.

Ya sure. :roll:

I have a lot of respect for Rockman, but I noticed he does have just a bit of the cynical/conspiratorial streak in him.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 23:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'p')fffft. Go Read Rocmann's analysis over at TOD. I stand by his assessment of the entire debacle. A completey politically derived whitewash. But of course your right so i cant argue with you. :roll:


Rocmann? The one who has been hiding in a bunker since late 2008, or the one in industry who used to post here occasionally?
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 23:25:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'p')fffft. Go Read Rocmann's analysis over at TOD. I stand by his assessment of the entire debacle. A completey politically derived whitewash. But of course your right so i cant argue with you. :roll:


Rocmann? The one who has been hiding in a bunker since late 2008, or the one in industry who used to post here occasionally?

Rockman is the one who used to post here occasionally.

The bunker guy is roccland.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Petrobras CEO says 2010 Peak

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 12 Feb 2010, 23:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'p')fffft. Go Read Rocmann's analysis over at TOD. I stand by his assessment of the entire debacle. A completey politically derived whitewash. But of course your right so i cant argue with you. :roll:


Rocmann? The one who has been hiding in a bunker since late 2008, or the one in industry who used to post here occasionally?

Rockman is the one who used to post here occasionally.

The bunker guy is roccland.


Gotcha. I read the TOD article anyway, I'm not certain of its relevance. Rocmann appears very unhappy that someone can claim that 5.0% is the right answer rather than 5.1%.

Considering the topic they are discussing, the level of precision which is claimed does appear more than a little silly. Rocmann gets pretty perturbed over it for some reason, rather than just laughing it off as typical management "knowledge", which it tends to look like based on the quote provided above the comment section.
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