[Revi]

I think we'll be driving cars like mine, if we are driving at all, so we won't need to buy gas at all.



We could come out of this with a lean, renewable economy.

It won't support as many people, and we'll live on much less energy per person, but it could work as an economy.

What we're doing now is doomed.

If we could all live on say one gallon of petroleum a day instead of 3 we could live well into the 21st century without much problem.

Nobody wants to give up the lifestyle that we have had, but after 10 years of Kondratieff winter we may see driving a small electric car and living in a tiny house as pretty nice.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we'll be driving cars like mine, if we are driving at all, so we won't need to buy gas at all.

We could come out of this with a lean, renewable economy.

It won't support as many people, and we'll live on much less energy per person, but it could work as an economy.

What we're doing now is doomed.

If we could all live on say one gallon of petroleum a day instead of 3 we could live well into the 21st century without much problem.

Nobody wants to give up the lifestyle that we have had, but after 10 years of Kondratieff winter we may see driving a small electric car and living in a tiny house as pretty nice.

[Revi]

Yes. Check out the Sprit car on www.sunnev.com

It's a smaller version with pedals.

It has less that a horsepower, so it can be registered as a moped.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'N')obody says when it will get "Bad", or how bad. Anyone have any actionable intelligence on when TSHTF? How, when, where?

[Newfie]

Revi,

Relevant to this discussion is something Cid just put out on his Runaway GW thread:

Climate 'tipping points' may arrive without warning
Quote:
"Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them," said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. "Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can ‘tip’ precipitously.

"This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible."

Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing major environmental effects, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, droughts, heat waves and wildfires; rising sea level; water shortages in arid regions; new and larger pest outbreaks afflicting crops and forests; and expanding ranges for tropical pathogens that cause human illness.

And they fear that worse is in store. As U.S. presidential science adviser John Holdren (not an author of the new UC Davis study) recently told a congressional committee: "Climate scientists worry about 'tipping points' … thresholds beyond which a small additional increase in average temperature or some associated climate variable results in major changes to the affected system."

Among the tipping points Holdren listed were: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer, leading to drastic changes in ocean circulation and climate patterns across the whole Northern Hemisphere; acceleration of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, driving rates of sea-level increase to 6 feet or more per century; and ocean acidification from carbon dioxide absorption, causing massive disruption in ocean food webs.

The new UC Davis study, "Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning," was supported by the Advancing Theory in Biology program at the U.S. National Science Foundation and was published online today (Feb. 9) by the journal Ecology Letters, in its Early View feature.

link http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/n ... icle/22806

Quote:
Predicting regime shifts – drastic changes in dynamic behaviour – is a key challenge in ecology and other fields. Here we show that the class of ecological systems that will exhibit leading indicators of regime shifts is limited, and that there is a set of ecological models and, therefore, also likely to be a class of natural systems for which there will be no forewarning of a regime change. We first describe how nonlinearities in combination with environmental variability lead to model descriptions that will not have smooth potentials, concluding that many ecological systems are described by systems without smooth potentials and thus will not show typical leading indicators of regime shifts.

Abstract

In other words, we'll just be cruising along happy as a clam, then BOOM!, the ecological system we were born into and are evolutionarily adapted to, ceases to exist suddenly, never to return. No warning, irreversible.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')evi,

Relevant to this discussion is something Cid just put out on his Runaway GW thread:

Climate 'tipping points' may arrive without warning
Quote:
"Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them," said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. "Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can ‘tip’ precipitously.

"This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible."

link http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/n ... icle/22806

Quote:
Predicting regime shifts – drastic changes in dynamic behaviour – is a key challenge in ecology and other fields. Here we show that the class of ecological systems that will exhibit leading indicators of regime shifts is limited, and that there is a set of ecological models and, therefore, also likely to be a class of natural systems for which there will be no forewarning of a regime change. We first describe how nonlinearities in combination with environmental variability lead to model descriptions that will not have smooth potentials, concluding that many ecological systems are described by systems without smooth potentials and thus will not show typical leading indicators of regime shifts.

Abstract

In other words, we'll just be cruising along happy as a clam, then BOOM!, the ecological system we were born into and are evolutionarily adapted to, ceases to exist suddenly, never to return. No warning, irreversible.

[Olaf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we'll be driving cars like mine, if we are driving at all, so we won't need to buy gas at all.

[Olaf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Abstract

In other words, we'll just be cruising along happy as a clam, then BOOM!, the ecological system we were born into and are evolutionarily adapted to, ceases to exist suddenly, never to return. No warning, irreversible.

[Revi]

My car is a fun experiment, but the real thing that might keep us alive is the wood in the woodshed, which I intend to lock up and have a camera on soon.

It's going to be a nasty ride.

And it starts soon.

[Roy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut the real thing that might keep us alive is the wood in the woodshed

[Revi]

I like the steel hulled sailboat! I think that could weather a lot of storms.

It's hard to tell when things are going to happen, but there are definitely storm clouds on the horizon.

I call the three hours after I get out of school my other job.

I find some wood, trade some cast iron and get the maple sugaring going.

They are as important as my day job.

We may not make it out of this thing alive, but it will be a heck of a ride, and I intend to be ready for it!

[eXpat]

Horay!
China orders retreat from risky assets
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina has ordered managers of its vast currency reserves to withdraw from risky dollar assets and retreat to core debt guaranteed by the US government, a clear sign that Beijing is battening down the hatches for fresh trouble on global markets.
A Communist Party directive leaked to the Chinese-language edition of the Asia Times said dollar reserves should be limited to US Treasuries or agency mortgage debt such as Freddie Mac that enjoys Washington's implicit backing.

BNP Paribas said the move has major implications for global risk assets. "The message from Beijing is that we don't like this environment," said Hans Redeker, the bank's currency chief.
"When the world's biggest investor turns risk-averse, that is something you take notice of. We think this could become the new theme for the markets in the medium-term," he said.
...
The exact break-down of China's holdings are a state secret but it is understood that SAFE bought large amounts of corporate debt as well as municipal and state bonds during the boom years of 2006 and 2007. Any move to liquidate holding of California debt at this crucial juncture could have serious implications.

[Newfie]

Hell, I may not make it out this week. Talk about Storm Clouds.

SNOWMAGEDDON II - the storm that ate Philadelphia! (I didn't make that up, heard it on the radio)

Mayor is telling everyone to go home, they are closing the buses and trains.

Apparently some locales are pulling their snow plows off the street.

DC is shut down again today, and will be almost certainly tomorrow, probably Friday also. (So much for the good news)



If it was not for the wife, to whom I am deeply devoted, I would be OUTTA HERE.

She still sees value in her work and wants to continue. Frankly, I think it time to go.

[ritter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olaf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Abstract

In other words, we'll just be cruising along happy as a clam, then BOOM!, the ecological system we were born into and are evolutionarily adapted to, ceases to exist suddenly, never to return. No warning, irreversible.

[Newfie]

Very much along the same lines check out "What could crush us in 2010" thread.

Great web graphic there.

[Olaf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ritter', '
')
You guys give me the warm fuzzies....

Clouds have been on the horizon for a bit but they sure do seem to be moving in faster recently.

[ritter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olaf', 'T')rying to live in one world while preparing for the next.

Olaf

[Newfie]

I recently saw a blog from a Brit who said it had failed but I didn't hear anything else and dismissed it.

I believe that if it was changing in any significant way we would have heard about it loudly.

[careinke]

Market watch put out a pretty depressing article "How to invest for a global-debt-bomb explosion"

LINKY

(wish I knew how to make smaller links)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')RROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Wake up investors. Are you prepared for the economic anarchy coming after a global-debt time bomb explodes? Are you thinking outside the box? Investing differently? Act now -- tomorrow will be too late.

Start by looking past the endless cable skirmishes between Rush, Glenn, Bill and Shawn versus Harry, Nancy, Ben and Barack. Look way past the insurgency bonding Sarah and her diehard Tea Party revolutionaries with Ron Paul's Neo-Reaganite ideologues, Fat-Cat Bankers and the Party of No, all planning a massive frontal assault on the 2010 elections, hell-bent on destroying the presidency. All that's the sideshow. The Big One is coming soon, bigger than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 subprime credit meltdown combined. A huge market blowout. And as Bloomberg-BusinessWeek predicts: "The results won't be pretty for investors or elected officials."