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question for shortonsense

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question for shortonsense

Postby dsula » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 11:58:52

Shortonsense,
I've been reading your postings and I like your sense of humor and your 'opposition' view to the mainstream doom on this board. However reading your postings I understand that you do not dispute peak-oil. Since you don't dispute it but still are not a doomer I have a hard time placing you in the grand scheme of things. If you don't mind could you summarize for me your stand on the future of the world, especially regarding population growth and available energy and food and other resources. Thank you very much.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby TheDude » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 12:04:25

More Nuanced version: Peak Oil Debunked
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 15:19:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'S')hortonsense,
I've been reading your postings and I like your sense of humor and your 'opposition' view to the mainstream doom on this board. However reading your postings I understand that you do not dispute peak-oil.


I don't think anyone can dispute peak oil, in the technical sense. The stuff is finite, we use it, almost by definition, somewhere between the start of oil production, and its end, there will be a maximum rate. The significant of this concept, THAT is another story.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Since you don't dispute it but still are not a doomer I have a hard time placing you in the grand scheme of things. If you don't mind could you summarize for me your stand on the future of the world, especially regarding population growth and available energy and food and other resources. Thank you very much.


Having been prepping since the last major global peak ( call it 1979 or so ), and seeing how well those preps have withstood the test of time ( as well as the most recent peak oil ) I shall continue teaching my children the same. Don't spend all of what you make, take personal responsibility for your decisions ( a philosophy that by itself would have stopped the housing bubble in its tracks before it ever got off the ground ), learn from your mistakes ( another concept often in short supply...among those who thought, for example, that PO 5 years ago was meaningful versus what the reality of our post peak world has shown us ), if you want to invest, start with your own education in the most difficult arena, profession or trade you can master ( the sciences are best ), and then strive to be better than anyone else ...if its worth doing, its worth doing as best you can.

Not as sexy as guns, ammo and gold I understand.....and it doesn't get at population ( 2 kids good, 3 kids not as good ), I think my thoughts on available energy are well known ( there is so much its silly to pretend we don't have more than enough to nearly any reasonable population the planet can support ) and with energy, most all other things are possible. And you did say "energy", not oil, so my answer is in that context.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby dsula » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 16:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'H')aving been prepping since the last major global peak ( call it 1979 or so ), and seeing how well those preps have withstood the test of time ( as well as the most recent peak oil ) I shall continue teaching my children the same. Don't spend all of what you make, take personal responsibility for your decisions ( a philosophy that by itself would have stopped the housing bubble in its tracks before it ever got off the ground ), learn from your mistakes ( another concept often in short supply...among those who thought, for example, that PO 5 years ago was meaningful versus what the reality of our post peak world has shown us ), if you want to invest, start with your own education in the most difficult arena, profession or trade you can master ( the sciences are best ), and then strive to be better than anyone else ...if its worth doing, its worth doing as best you can.

Well yes, that is good advice peak-oil or not peak-oil. I never went for the gun/doom-bunker/hording idea anyways.
However since you agree the world is finite, you would also agree that only a finite number of people are able to inhabit it with a decent standard of living (whatever that is, doesn't mean it has to be western standard). So therefore do you think that:
1. we're still far away from that limit, in fact so far away that it's a waste of time to be concerned?
2. that due to concerted effort and a new enlightment the population growth can be stopped in reasonable time?
3. that we can find the required amount of energy to support a peak population and a slow easy painless decline after implementing (2) above?
4. that this issue is beyond our control and therfore not worthfhile spending time on?

thank you
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 20:48:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')...if its worth doing, its worth doing as best you can.
Well yes, that is good advice peak-oil or not peak-oil.
Funny how basic, sound principles work like that, ain't it?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'I') never went for the gun/doom-bunker/hording idea anyways.
But you have to admit, they are fun to listen to, aren't they? We've had people from this site actually announce they were running for the bunkers back in October, 2008.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'H')owever since you agree the world is finite, you would also agree that only a finite number of people are able to inhabit it with a decent standard of living (whatever that is, doesn't mean it has to be western standard). So therefore do you think that: 1. we're still far away from that limit, in fact so far away that it's a waste of time to be concerned?

There was once quite a thread on carrying capacity somewhere, which some have said was erased. In that thread, the references were provided for a carrying capacity of the planet ranging from a billion or less, to hundreds of billions. Considering that most projections put the population logistic curve landing at about 9 billion people in the next few decades, it seems to me that we still have a long way to go....or maybe not. :-D To date, as far as I know, I am the only person who actually described the exact distribution I believe covers this answer in a completely thorough way, down to the exact chance of a certain limit being reached. Wish I still had it....but in any case, 9 billion seemed to be a pretty reasonable level of people.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '2'). that due to concerted effort and a new enlightment the population growth can be stopped in reasonable time?

Population growth can be stopped tomorrow. People just have to decide to do so. Its one of the wonders of the human condition, and a characteristic which makes predicting our behavior so difficult. Free will. We can decide to stop...nearly anything ( not directly involved in outright survival, breathing, eating, drinking )...if we choose. Of course, we can decide to start something tomorrow as well. For example, if everyone tomorrow decided to stop driving, peak oil would be a worry a few centuries down the road....if then. But if we all decided to, say, buy slurpies the size of a house...well....we would instantly create slurpee scarcity! We might create peak sugar! Peak cups! Peak ice!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', ' ')3. that we can find the required amount of energy to support a peak population and a slow easy painless decline after implementing (2) above?
Absolutely. Energy is easy. Ever been sunburned? You figure maybe peak solar is a real possibility? Lack of energy probably isn't even in the top 5 triggers for some large scale human dieoff.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '4'). that this issue is beyond our control and therfore not worthfhile spending time on? thank you
I don't think its beyond our control in the least....matter of fact, I think its PERFECTLY within our control. And I consider resource depletion to be a serious and worthwhile issue....but I think the way its discussed here tends to trivialize the actual issues involved, particularly economic considerations in relation to human behavior. Also, to many circular references ( Ruppert says that Heinberg claimed that Savinar quoted which Kuntsler mentioned on his blog which Hirsch built a triangle on which the EIA didn't like, and when they said so, Ruppert quoted them as being denialists ), a severe lack of originality ( I am more than happy to argue that no idea here is original, and some can be traced back even farther than Malthus ), and a desire to talk about a cool scenario which, it is hoped, will level the playing field ( kill the yuppies, lawyers, SUV drivers ).

I hope you realize I am stereotyping a bit here, I can reference honest and concerned doomers as fast as I can spittle spewing, wild eyed crackpots. There has also been a shift since peak happened back in 2005....those who claimed it would be a near instant trigger for their personal rapture, are now much more slow-crashers, if they are around at all. Lets face it...peak oil hasn't gone the way the Prophets have claimed.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby JJ » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 22:39:32

lack of energy might well factor in the die-off. no cheap food.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 23:49:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'l')ack of energy might well factor in the die-off. no cheap food.


I always thought that "lack of food" caused someone to die, rather than its price?
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby AirlinePilot » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 00:12:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'l')ack of energy might well factor in the die-off. no cheap food.
I always thought that "lack of food" caused someone to die, rather than its price?
Another hint at your intentional misleading of the facts. The OP's comment was meant to mean that the lack of sustained food production results directly from the lack of or expense of energy. Namely oil and all it does for us with regards to agriculture(fertilizer/pesticides), food production, and transportation of the final products.

Your constant intentional obfuscation of ANY argument that brings up consequences or effects of oil depletion and the impact it will have on future population and food dynamics is telling. You do this all the time and it is a very transparent game you are playing.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby Narz » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 01:22:21

Why the name (shortonsense)?
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby mos6507 » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:26:45

Too often posters that have the worst reputations have usernames or avatar images that really give off an unflattering first impression.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby SeaGypsy » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 11:52:26

I always thought shorty got his name from the other shorty, shortonoil; who is kind of in the exact opposite camp. I actually am enjoying this little interview. When I 1st joined here a year ago I was pretty freaked out about peakoil. I still am very concerned. But I sometimes thank God for shorty's nonchalance, Tanada's nuclear optimism and some of the more obtuse cornucopians for just lightening things up a bit with possibilities other than TSHTF next Tuesday. I did get pretty pissed of about shorty's opinion that whale killing was good for entertainment value but he was just pushing my buttons.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby JJ » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') always thought shorty got his name from the other shorty, shortonoil; who is kind of in the exact opposite camp. I actually am enjoying this little interview. When I 1st joined here a year ago I was pretty freaked out about peakoil. I still am very concerned. But I sometimes thank God for shorty's nonchalance, Tanada's nuclear optimism and some of the more obtuse cornucopians for just lightening things up a bit with possibilities other than TSHTF next Tuesday. I did get pretty pissed of about shorty's opinion that whale killing was good for entertainment value but he was just pushing my buttons.


first timmac was a serious cornicopian. then he seemed to have gone over to the dark side. now he's defending Las Vegas. HUH?
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby SeaGypsy » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:06:15

Must have won a shite load of money there or completely lost his marbles? :lol:
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby dsula » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 12:49:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Population growth can be stopped tomorrow. People just have to decide to do so. Its one of the wonders of the human condition, and a characteristic which makes predicting our behavior so difficult.


That is true. Break-point events in a linear flow make prediction impossible. However we can assign a probability factor to such events. So I rephrase my question.
Do you believe it is PROBABLE that the world gets the population under control before disaster strikes, e.g famine, disease. What are you willing to bet on this? Your house, car, wife ?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Absolutely. Energy is easy. Ever been sunburned? You figure maybe peak solar is a real possibility? Lack of energy probably isn't even in the top 5 triggers for some large scale human dieoff.

I cut my own firewood and even with a chainsaw it's not easy. Do you believe we have enough resources to build the required alternative energy infrastructe. E.g enough rare earth minerals for all the electric motors and batteries and so forth.
AND, even more importantly do you think we have enough resources (including energy) to maintain the underlying high-tech infrastructure required to build advanced alternative energy solutions. E.g all the sun won't do me any good if I don't have access to solar panels and I don't have access to high-tech machines to manufacture them.

I agree with your assessment of Ruppert, Kunstler und such. (I enjoyed your rant about accountant Simmons). However all those predictions don't change where we're headed.

How do you think the world will look like 20 years from now, assuming there is no catastrophic game changing event (e.g pandemic, nuclear war, alien invasion, and such).
And how do you think the life of a now middle class american will look like 20 years from now.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 20:34:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'W')hy the name (shortonsense)?
Isn't it obvious? Those of us who actually count all past peaks ( and ask embarrassing questions ), compare predictions of what peak oil would cause to what is actually has caused, and judge information against ALL other information ( vs just the circular sources I talked about earlier ), why, we must be daft! :-D
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 20:55:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', ' ')So I rephrase my question.
Do you believe it is PROBABLE that the world gets the population under control before disaster strikes, e.g famine, disease. What are you willing to bet on this? Your house, car, wife ?


Yes, I think it is HIGHLY probable that the world gets population under control before disaster strikes, although to be fair, some of your disasters have been with us so long, it doesn't seem reasonable to just use them as the criteria again, unless you are referring to extreme cases versus all the normal kind.

And for all of us with children, we are already effectively betting their lives on our vision of the future. Certainly if I believed in some of the mad max scenario's, related to starvation lets say, I might deem it reasonable to turn my children into Amish clones rather than the direction I think would do them more good, say, a masters degree in electrical engineering from a solid science school.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Do you believe we have enough resources to build the required alternative energy infrastructe. E.g enough rare earth minerals for all the electric motors and batteries and so forth.


Absolutely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')AND, even more importantly do you think we have enough resources (including energy) to maintain the underlying high-tech infrastructure required to build advanced alternative energy solutions. E.g all the sun won't do me any good if I don't have access to solar panels and I don't have access to high-tech machines to manufacture them.


Of course. Obviously, some of what you refer to as "underlying high-tech" infrastructure will be more useful, plentiful or cost effective than others, but in general, sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')I agree with your assessment of Ruppert, Kunstler und such. (I enjoyed your rant about accountant Simmons). However all those predictions don't change where we're headed.


You are supposing something without being explicit....we are headed.....to a future utopia as predicted by Simmons once we appropriately "manage" our oil addiction? :-D And yes, I have the quote and have used it before.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', ' ')
How do you think the world will look like 20 years from now, assuming there is no catastrophic game changing event (e.g pandemic, nuclear war, alien invasion, and such).


Cleaner. More efficient. Bigger, of course. More electric. A more interesting geopolitical dynamic between the US and China

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')And how do you think the life of a now middle class american will look like 20 years from now.

For Americans, I think our standard of living, headed down since the early 90's and concealed by the introduction of a second earner into the family cash flow, will be hurt for a substantial portion of those 2 decades. 20 years might be enough for a turnaround, or it might not. If nothing else, a decent sized burst of inflation, similar to that after the 1979 global peak oil, will certainly cause some decent chaos and economic irritation for large segments of the population. Same as before.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby JJ » Fri 05 Feb 2010, 09:21:58

SOS said:
And for all of us with children, we are already effectively betting their lives on our vision of the future.

What if we had the children before we knew ANYTHING about PO, Dieoff, etc? As is the case with my family. :(
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby shortonsense » Fri 05 Feb 2010, 10:26:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'S')OS said:
And for all of us with children, we are already effectively betting their lives on our vision of the future.

What if we had the children before we knew ANYTHING about PO, Dieoff, etc? As is the case with my family. :(


Are you suggesting that knowing about PO would have stopped your urge to spawn? Certainly few seem to demonstrate such dedication to the idea, and certainly quite a few babies have been born after the The Population Bomb was written, and that was a previous version of the same dieoff discussed here.

But lets say you already have the kids, and you read a 10 year old copy of The Bomb, and are struck speechless with the consequences of resource depletion, or at least that version of it.

What do you do, as far as training the children? I don't really spend much time watching the preparation forums because they don't focus on what I consider to be the most productive solutions for the future, they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced. I wonder how many parents are taking this so seriously that they are doing what would seem like reasonable preps for their KIDS versus themselves. Hand to hand combat training starting at age 8, Amish farmer practice during summer vacation, camping on the weekends, teaching them how to catch rabbits with their bare hands or string and deadfalls, certainly there would be no point in wasting time on a drivers license, dating, or heck, even regular public school, they should all be pulled out and turned into little Rambo's? I never really thought about this from the other perspective, what things I would want to teach them if I thought the world was headed to small agricultural communities within no more than a few years.
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby JJ » Fri 05 Feb 2010, 11:44:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'S')OS said:
And for all of us with children, we are already effectively betting their lives on our vision of the future.

What if we had the children before we knew ANYTHING about PO, Dieoff, etc? As is the case with my family. :(


Are you suggesting that knowing about PO would have stopped your urge to spawn? Certainly few seem to demonstrate such dedication to the idea, and certainly quite a few babies have been born after the The Population Bomb was written, and that was a previous version of the same dieoff discussed here.

But lets say you already have the kids, and you read a 10 year old copy of The Bomb, and are struck speechless with the consequences of resource depletion, or at least that version of it.

What do you do, as far as training the children? I don't really spend much time watching the preparation forums because they don't focus on what I consider to be the most productive solutions for the future, they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced. I wonder how many parents are taking this so seriously that they are doing what would seem like reasonable preps for their KIDS versus themselves. Hand to hand combat training starting at age 8, Amish farmer practice during summer vacation, camping on the weekends, teaching them how to catch rabbits with their bare hands or string and deadfalls, certainly there would be no point in wasting time on a drivers license, dating, or heck, even regular public school, they should all be pulled out and turned into little Rambo's? I never really thought about this from the other perspective, what things I would want to teach them if I thought the world was headed to small agricultural communities within no more than a few years.


six years ago, I had a sub-arachnoid anuerysm burst at the base of my skull, putting me in a coma for a month. (I'm currently 51 years old). It took three months to learn to walk and talk again. Somehow, right after that, I was introduced to some web-site regarding PO. Every since then, I have read everything I can. We have five children; his, hers and ours. I came into the marriage with a now 28 year old son (adopted) and 27 year old daughter (mine). My wife has a (currently living at home) 26 year old son, who is a manager the last two years at the chain grocery I work for. He makes quite a bit more than I, but deservedly so, as he has two degrees. He is PO aware, and sees a very, very grim future. Between us, we have a 14 year old son and a 8 year old son. They are certainly PO aware, as they listen to our conversations all the time, BUT they seem to be "normal" children to me (at least by our societies standards). They are straight A students (not hard since our educational system sucks) and do the basketball/soccer thing. All the kids are obsessed with basketball. (I have no interest). My wife is a teacher, and having grown up in the Philippines and Kuwait/England, etc has little hopw for our collective future also. But she is very pragmatic. We just live every day for that day, are trying to pay down all debt, make some preparations, etc. Which is probably more than 99% of the people.

I have neighbors in several houses nearby on different streets (who fortunately I think are friends) who are hard-core doomers, with arsenals of weapons, ammo and preps and are living for the collapse.

I'm toast if I have to stand up against any of them. (The good news is I probably won't even know I lost). :)
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Re: question for shortonsense

Postby Phildo » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 18:33:27

Fun thread. Mind a join-in?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'S')OS said:
And for all of us with children, we are already effectively betting their lives on our vision of the future.

What if we had the children before we knew ANYTHING about PO, Dieoff, etc? As is the case with my family. :(




Same here . . . except the key-term "know." As far as "knowing" how things will turn out -- we do not. PO (and the outcomes) are just a set of beliefs and supposings. I view them as only scenarios -- and if taken to the more extreme All-Doom-All-The-Time level, many aspect are mutually exclusive (meaning parts would cancel each other out). By the time you get to the Dieoff.org level, you have pretty much reach All-Dingbats-All-The-Time, mho.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Are you suggesting that knowing about PO would have stopped your urge to spawn? Certainly few seem to demonstrate such dedication to the idea, and certainly quite a few babies have been born after the The Population Bomb was written, and that was a previous version of the same dieoff discussed here.

But lets say you already have the kids, and you read a 10 year old copy of The Bomb, and are struck speechless with the consequences of resource depletion, or at least that version of it.



Never do discuss the difference between Quantity and Quality, do they?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What do you do, as far as training the children? I don't really spend much time watching the preparation forums because they don't focus on what I consider to be the most productive solutions for the future, they appear to be extremely Luddite influenced. I wonder how many parents are taking this so seriously that they are doing what would seem like reasonable preps for their KIDS versus themselves. Hand to hand combat training starting at age 8, Amish farmer practice during summer vacation, camping on the weekends, teaching them how to catch rabbits with their bare hands or string and deadfalls, certainly there would be no point in wasting time on a drivers license, dating, or heck, even regular public school, they should all be pulled out and turned into little Rambo's? I never really thought about this from the other perspective, what things I would want to teach them if I thought the world was headed to small agricultural communities within no more than a few years.


[/quote]

EZ one, there.

You know the proverb . . . ..

Between two goods -- Choose Both. Between two evils -- Choose Neither.

So kids learning Farming, (along with martial arts, sports, arts, etc.) is all Good. So are the other non-Luddite, as you say, choices. Seen the mention of Electrical Engineering back up the path on this thread. Can be Good or Bad. Just have to choose the Good over the Bad.

So Choose All the Good. Reject All the Evil. That is the family side of our Electric Farm project. Both top end applications of practical Electrical Engineering and down-in-the-dirt farming. Mostly good in all that.

Back in younger farming days we had neighbors who both Mennonite and Amish. So going completely electric, I sort of feel disloyal to the Amish, but Luddite Doomers aside, I do not think history actually ever does go backwards.

For fantasy family fun vacations, I figure visiting these folks in Montana would be the thing (Mrs. Phildo does not concur :-D ) >>>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutterite
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