[Keith_McClary]

US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook-December 8, 2009 Release (Next Update: January 12, 2010)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')IA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will average about $76 per barrel this winter (October-March). The forecast for the monthly average WTI price dips to $75 early next year then rises to $82 per barrel by December 2010, assuming U.S. and world economic conditions continue to improve. EIA's forecast assumes that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 1.9 percent in 2010 and world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP grows by 2.6 percent.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')Crude Oil Predictions and Targets: Round-UpSeveral predictions here.

[basil_hayden]

I've been contemplating my entry for several days.

I feel like I have too much knowledge to make an accurate prediction, if that's possible.

Of the last few years, 2010 seems like it could be the year where anything can happen - big moves up or down, based on geopolitics, the dollar, the US economy, someone actually noticing that production is declining, etc. I think the bumpy plateau will get more volatile this year but not as bad as the next and nowhere near as bad as 2008, so I'm going with:

High: $105.83

Low: $65.17

Close: $84.19

But I'm not nearly as comfortable with these numbers as I was with last year's numbers, however I was really comfortable with my 2008 prediction which was way off. Go figure.

Best of luck to all the contestants and Thanks pup55 for managing this exercise!

[Timo]

High - $193 due to wars in Mexico, Yemen, Iran, and Egypt.
Low - $71 due to silly visions of a new reliance on Russian oil to save us.
Close - Who knows since it won't be tied to the dollar any longer.

[pup55]

High: 117.1
low: 55.01
close:87.28

I did the regression analysis on the high and low data for the last 6 years. The high forecast above was computed using the trendline y=12.11X - 24224 where X is the year.

Similarly I computed the low at 45.01, y=1.22149X - 2110 except I added 10 dollars because that was how far off of the low I was this year.

The yearly close on average, has been 47% higher than the yearly low (which would have made it about 82) and 79% of the yearly high, which would make it about 92, so I took the average of those two, which would make it about 87.

Keeping in mind that R-squared for the high trendline is about .5, and .05 for the low (basically nonlinear) so this is essentially a random number generation....

I just don't think the economy will be able to stand $3.50 gas, at least for very long..... and I do not see it getting down into the 40's as long as china keeps using all of that oil.....

I should do that calculation of the US crude oil energy cost as a percentage of GDP, except that the current GDP does not really reflect what is going on in the economy right now......I bet it would be something on the order of $120 to have the same effect as $143 did in 2008...since the real economy has probably contracted 20% since then....

.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')High Low Close
TreeFarmer 88 38 63
eXpat 100 70 90
alpha480v 125 75 99
jdmartin 118 70 90
SeaGypsy 92 68 87
Hawkcreek 168 69 119
Armageddon 219 75 201
OilFinder2 84 64 68
IslandCrow 140 70 105
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12
Cog 110 74 90
davep 140 60 120
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25
2cher 136 72 123
TheDude 120 45 65
Gerben 101 65 78
pablonite 169 69 113
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40
Bas 168 68 148
eastbay 147 72 137
SteinarN 112 71 102
Repent 120 10 70
thylacine 150 60 100
obixman 120 64 110
Daniel_Plainview 125.15 66.6 83.73
lateStarter 104 68 98
Nike62 95 40 80
Carlhole 100 60
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73
Comp_Lex 90 40
rangerone314 72 152 90
careinke 135 65 125
biofuel13 168.25 62.5 162.47
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117
ColossalContrarian 119 64.38 102.76
sparky 98 55 60
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25
shortonsense 95 55 75
Midessa 100 75 100
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84,19
Timo 193 71
pup55 117,1 55.01 87.28




avg 121 62 95

[TheDude]

I pasted your list into my spreadsheet, plugged in my numbers to see whose calls were closest to mine, and your high diff from my call got translated as "-120." So you think they'll be giving it away?

You put in a comma by mistake, is all. Same with basil's close. Actually if my calls came out right on the money you'd be #2. It'd be fun to throw some of these MSM analysts in the pot, too. This Price Challenge, I mean. Some of them deserve a good stewing as well.

Carhole, Comp Lex, and Timo need to supply numbers for the close.

[PeakOiler]

Here's what I have:



I'm not sure why our averages are different. After reviewing the list, I did find one error in my spreadsheet, but the averages still didn't match.

I sorted the data by Overall, then name.

[copious.abundance]

mcgowanjm's high price is already wrong.

If it's not too late, I'd like to bump up my high price to $88, my low price to $66, and my closing price to $77. I've decided to go for aesthetic elegance rather than theoretical justification.

[kmann]

High: 95
Low: 58
Close: 75

Reasons: Slow economic recovery, little demand growth in the US, the high will go to 95 only because of speculative excess, 2010 will be alot like 2009 as far as oil consumption and production is concerned.

[Kez]

High $198
Low $ 70
Close $198

[Arsenal]

High: $134
Low: $67
Close $ 89

[kublikhan]

High: $125
Low: $70
Close: $105

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not sure why our averages are different.

[PeakOiler]

Here is the latest revision:



I added the late-comers to the list. Where's Dante? Ludi? frankthetank? et al.? It is an interesting game, imo, and reflects the attitude of so many po.com members...

Please check your numbers everyone! As The Dude pointed out, a few folks still need to guess their closing price estimate.

If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet, send me your email address in a PM.

[Keith_McClary]

Jeff Rubin, the former CIBC World Markets Inc. chief economist who accurately predicted oil’s surge during the last decade, expects crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter and $100 by the year’s end.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')High Low Close
TreeFarmer 88 38 63
eXpat 100 70 90
alpha480v 125 75 99
jdmartin 118 70 90
SeaGypsy 92 68 87
Hawkcreek 168 69 119
Armageddon 219 75 201
OilFinder2 88 66 77
IslandCrow 140 70 105
wisconsin_cur 138.95 32.16 55.12
Cog 110 74 90
davep 140 60 120
mcgowanjm 78.51 27.25 27.25
2cher 136 72 123
TheDude 120 45 65
Gerben 101 65 78
pablonite 169 69 113
AlexdeLarge 88 35 40
Bas 168 68 148
eastbay 147 72 137
SteinarN 112 71 102
Repent 120 10 70
thylacine 150 60 100
obixman 120 64 110
Daniel_Plainview 125.15 66.6 83.73
lateStarter 104 68 98
Nike62 95 40 80
Carlhole 100 60
TheAntiDoomer 96 58 73
Comp_Lex 90 40
rangerone314 72 152 90
careinke 135 65 125
biofuel13 168.25 62.5 162.47
vtsnowedin 152.5 51.25 117
ColossalContrarian 119 64.38 102.76
sparky 98 55 60
PeakOiler 96.5 62.4 78.25
shortonsense 95 55 75
Midessa 100 75 100
basil_hayden 105.83 65.17 84.19
Timo 193 71
pup55 117.1 55.01 87.28
kmann 95 58 75
Kez 198 70 198
Arsenal 134 67 89
kublikhan 125 70 105



avg 122 62 95

[PeakOiler]

pupp, (respectfully), I think you have rangerone314's high and low price estimates switched which may explain our average differences with the data.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'L')ow: 72
High: 152
Close: 90
<<snip>>

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')kay, here is the official list of entries. Naturally anyone who finds another typo will get the love and respect of the PO.com community.