by nth » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 09:29:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')hanx. The TX RR Commission.
Berman's been there. Done that.
? Where do you stand regarding Berman's analysis?
Berman admits that he does not have enough data to prove that $6 gas is uneconomical.
Do you agree with him on that? He does not have quality of gas, pressure, etc....
Berman seems to think the numbers do not add up because he refuses to use any kind of assumption, except the most conservative ones. And yes, he uses assumptions just like everyone else when modeling these wells.
He still has not answered the question on how a few wells are very profitable. At least, he admits that the wells are profitable, but he still sticks to the idea that a few profitable wells do not make a field profitable and one cannot model based on a few good wells.
The question then becomes do these few good wells are just lucky or are the operators doing something to these few wells that makes them good, so they can be repeated? The operators are stating that the latter is the case. The data from gov't sources are too early to backup the operators, but if you look at Berman's analysis, you will see the numbers are looking better now than when he first disclosed his data as he updates his data with more new wells.
On another point, Berman contends that the operators are reworking the wells, so the data for certain wells are exceeding his projections. Public data is not available to determine what it costs to rework those specific wells, so unable to determine the cost. Remember that he is not saying the gas is not there, but that it costs too much to extract it.
I think one thing that is getting lost here is that there is a lot of gas here. History has taught us that if you got a lot of resources and that demand is high. Then, the price for these resources will drop. People will find more cost effective ways.