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Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 03 Dec 2009, 11:07:01

An energy answer in the shale below?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ecoverable U.S. gas reserves could now be bigger than the immense gas reserves of Russia, some experts say. The Marcellus shale formation, stretching across swaths of Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia, has enough gas to meet the entire nation's needs for at least 14 years, according to an estimate by two Pennsylvania State University experts. Just in Broome County, N.Y., where Fitzsimmons lives, shale gas development could create $15 billion in economic activity, according to consultants hired by the county.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby nth » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 01:47:31

Based on rumors, I heard utilities and shale gas producers are negotiating to buy NG for $5.50-$6.50 for 10-20 years contract but utilities are not biting as they want the price even lower.

The consensus for shale gas costs around $4. These costs should be dropping every year as field operators gain more understanding on how to avoid the poor wells and maximize yields.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 11:27:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')The consensus for shale gas costs around $4. These costs should be dropping every year as field operators gain more understanding on how to avoid the poor wells and maximize yields.


:twisted: :evil: 8O

I can do the exact same thing with farmers and soy. But like the farmer won't plant a seed if soy is less than $6, the Boss won't buy
a lease if the price is less than $6. Much less drill.

As us farmers avoid the poor years and maximize yields.

And still waiting for those 60 month production charts. I know they're around here somewhere.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 11:37:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')And still waiting for those 60 month production charts. I know they're around here somewhere.


The type curves are on pages 20-21.

They also have another IP Vs 10 Year Cum Graph on Page 14, Figure 10.

Rates of return ( even at $5/mcf ) are contained in a table on Page 24.

Discounted cash flows on Page 25.

http://www.tudorpickering.com/pdfs/TheB ... Report.pdf

Before making your now infamous $6/mcf statement you should have gone here...

http://www.google.com/

type stuff in...its a great system.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 11:38:49

http://info.drillinginfo.com/wireline/2 ... ery-wrong/

A Well (depending on Lateral Length :evil: :lol: )Reasoned
Rebuttal to Berman.

For PO discussion. Happy New Decade :!: :?: 8O
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 11:48:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I')ts amazing how Mcgowanmj still sucks up to Leanan even after she gave him the boot from TOD.



NEW NEWS I can't keep up but loking back I find the above.

Like Lincoln, I stand with ANYONE when I think they're correct
and will dis ANYONE when I disagree.

I've posted to Leanan many times. Has a tendency to ignore me.
:evil: 8O 8)

And I treat her like a good AP. This AM for ex she seems to be posting PO dismissive 'we're not there yet' articles, when anyone
can see that IEA WEO 2010 has jumped the shark, it's all downhill.

Just like Extinction and the Climate.

She keeps thinking like that but posts good articles nonetheless.

And about that sucking up, AD, care to state what part of
the MIC war machine/Top .01% you're part of cause those are the ONLY
folks who've benefitted from our loss of Liberties this Decade.

LMFAO this New Decade. 8)
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 11:55:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'M')ore Shale gas fun OF2. I wonder if these big discoveries will go on for a while....

Another natural gas discovery in north Louisiana could rival the Haynesville Shale

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/ ... overy.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother natural gas discovery in north Louisiana could rival the Haynesville Shale, which last year incited a gold-rush style drilling boom when it was revealed that the underground rock layer held one of the biggest gas reserves in the country.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Petrohawk announced on Wednesday that it planned to drill a Bossier well some time early next year, which will allow the company to draw more detailed conclusions about the shale deposit.


An Oil/Gas Corps- A group of Holes with liars on top
And look at what I found:

The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: December 16, 2009
"this group pooled their calculations and did some back of envelope ...... “The oil and gas business is a bunch of holes in the ground with liars on top.” ...
www.theoildrum.com/node/6049

Leanan must still be busy culling the herd, eh AD!?

:lol: 8O :wink:
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 12:09:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')And still waiting for those 60 month production charts. I know they're around here somewhere.


The type curves are on pages 20-21.

They also have another IP Vs 10 Year Cum Graph on Page 14, Figure 10.

Rates of return ( even at $5/mcf ) are contained in a table on Page 24.

Discounted cash flows on Page 25.

http://www.tudorpickering.com/pdfs/TheB ... Report.pdf

Before making your now infamous $6/mcf statement you should have gone here...

http://www.google.com/

type stuff in...its a great system.


Now, to your PDF The Hottest Play Going? :twisted:

Page 24 shows extrapolation of guesses for vertical drilling.
With Both Tier 1/Tier 2 costing less than the $2.5 million per well
agreed cost.

Unless you can show otherwise, that's NOT a 60 month
production chart.

And then the Kill Shot from Pickering. Is this the same Tudor Pickering?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Source: Pickering Energy Partners
We can also see why vertical wells in the non-core area don’t really work. Johnson County should have the
best vertical wells of the non-core area because the Barnett Shale is the thick and deep. The median Johnson
county vertical well had peak volumes of 500mcf/d, which is only slightly economic at $6/mcf gas (10% return;
45-50% of the wells completed would not have been economic under this scenario). The average well, as
expected, looks better at 585mcf/d, generating a 26% return. But here’s the rub…these numbers ALL assume
mechanical success (i.e. a productive well). Any wells which did not flow (due to fracing into the water-bearing
Ellenburger, etc.) are NOT included in the data set. Thus these results should be viewed as a best case scenario
since it’s been well documented that penetrating the Ellenberger with a frac is a problem in the non-


STILL looking for that 60 month Flow Chart.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 12:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Unless you can show otherwise, that's NOT a 60 month
production chart.


Do you know what a type curve is, or what it represents, or how it is built? Do you know what a 10 year cumulative number is? Do you know what positive discounted cash flow means? Do you dispute the IP/CUM R squared in the report provided versus Bermans claims of no correlation?

If you want a wells 5 year production profile, go here, and stop pretending there aren't nearly 10,000 of them available for the Barnett for anyone who really wants to find one.

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/index.php
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 12:44:25

Thanx. The TX RR Commission.

Berman's been there. Done that. 90% depletion first year.

Again, thanx.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... EUlpJcuZB4
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bloomberg', '
')“We’re ignoring Mr. Berman,” said Brad Sylvester, a spokesman for Southwestern Energy Co., the Houston-based company that pioneered development of the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas. Southwestern was he only oil and gas producer in the Standard & Poor’s 500 that rose last year.

Rick Buterbaugh, a spokesman for Quicksilver of Fort Worth, Texas, said Berman underestimates the company’s Barnett Shale production by using figures from the Railroad Commission that don’t include natural-gas liquids.

Berman said he’s glad companies and analysts are starting to discuss his shale research. “I think it’s very encouraging that people are disagreeing with me because what that suggests is that we’re going to get to an answer eventually,” he said.


"we’re going to get to an answer eventually" and I'm hedged
either way so good luck and Happy New Decade. 8)

And a BTW-


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Do you know what a type curve is, or what it represents, or how it is built? Do you know what a 10 year cumulative number is? Do you know what positive discounted cash flow means? Do you dispute the IP/CUM R squared in the report provided versus Bermans claims of no correlation?


Yes on all of those and I'd like to see a 60 month flow chart.
When we get a 70% drop in the first year. 20% the next.
So I will give ground on that. I'm a nice guy after all.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Berman', '
')Looking at a large sampling of Barnett wells, the overall data reveal that initial gas flows decline rapidly. With some wells, the drop-off is as much as 70% in the first year, with further declines of 20% in the second year.


Thanx.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 01 Jan 2010, 19:24:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Berman', '
')Looking at a large sampling of Barnett wells, the overall data reveal that initial gas flows decline rapidly. With some wells, the drop-off is as much as 70% in the first year, with further declines of 20% in the second year.


Thanx.


You are fighting a strawman. No one has ever denied that shale gas doesn't decline quickly. What is denied is that these types of wells require your claim of $6/mcf to be economic.

Shale gas was economic at $1.25/mcf before you were born. I'll bet those ones declined fast as well. It just doesn't matter.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby nth » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 09:29:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')hanx. The TX RR Commission.

Berman's been there. Done that.


? Where do you stand regarding Berman's analysis?

Berman admits that he does not have enough data to prove that $6 gas is uneconomical.
Do you agree with him on that? He does not have quality of gas, pressure, etc....

Berman seems to think the numbers do not add up because he refuses to use any kind of assumption, except the most conservative ones. And yes, he uses assumptions just like everyone else when modeling these wells.

He still has not answered the question on how a few wells are very profitable. At least, he admits that the wells are profitable, but he still sticks to the idea that a few profitable wells do not make a field profitable and one cannot model based on a few good wells.

The question then becomes do these few good wells are just lucky or are the operators doing something to these few wells that makes them good, so they can be repeated? The operators are stating that the latter is the case. The data from gov't sources are too early to backup the operators, but if you look at Berman's analysis, you will see the numbers are looking better now than when he first disclosed his data as he updates his data with more new wells.

On another point, Berman contends that the operators are reworking the wells, so the data for certain wells are exceeding his projections. Public data is not available to determine what it costs to rework those specific wells, so unable to determine the cost. Remember that he is not saying the gas is not there, but that it costs too much to extract it.

I think one thing that is getting lost here is that there is a lot of gas here. History has taught us that if you got a lot of resources and that demand is high. Then, the price for these resources will drop. People will find more cost effective ways.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 11:04:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')? Where do you stand regarding Berman's analysis?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', 'T')hanx for your questions. 8)
About 75 percent of predicted EUR in horizontal Barnett wells has been produced by Year 5. In the control group, the first wells were drilled in 2003, and already 15% have reached their economic limit five to six years into their production life cycle.
I agree.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')Berman admits that he does not have enough data to prove that $6 gas is uneconomical.
Do you agree with him on that? He does not have quality of gas, pressure, etc....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', '
')Yes. $6 -$7.25. A spokesman from Quicksilver has stated that Berman underestimates Quicksilver’s Barnett Shale production by using data from the Railroad Commission that does not include natural-gas liquids.

And

In addition, as gas prices close in on the pivotal $6 price, a level the majority of energy companies say would encourage them to increase exploration and production spending, according to Barclays ( BCS - news - people ) Capital, concerns will also grow that supplies will outpace demand again next year.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')Berman seems to think the numbers do not add up because he refuses to use any kind of assumption, except the most conservative ones. And yes, he uses assumptions just like everyone else when modeling these wells.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', '
')See? That's convoluted sentences containing a straw man.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')He still has not answered the question on how a few wells are very profitable.

[quote=McG"]
Neither have you. At $6 per hole. And 70% first year 20% the second and a five year depletion rate per hole.
[/quote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')At least, he admits that the wells are profitable, but he still sticks to the idea that a few profitable wells do not make a field profitable and one cannot model based on a few good wells.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', '
')You're contradicting here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')
The question then becomes(Only because of your straw man;} 8O 8) do these few good wells are just lucky or are the operators doing something to these few wells that makes them good, so they can be repeated? The operators are stating that the latter is the case. (Super) The data from gov't sources are too early to backup the operators, but if you look at Berman's analysis, you will see the numbers are looking better now than when he first disclosed his data as he updates his data with more new wells.
(Wells that hit dry aren't counted for one. Two, and we haven't
even gotten to benzene releases and who pays for ground water contamination).

On another point, Berman contends that the operators are reworking the wells, so the data for certain wells are exceeding his projections. (I need the source and of course you can add $$$
as you seem to imply that laterals are being extended).) Public data is not available to determine what it costs to rework those specific wells, so unable to determine the cost.(Exactly) Remember that he is not saying the gas is not there, but that it costs too much to extract it.(Exactly;} :shock:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')
I think one thing that is getting lost here is that there is a lot of gas here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', '
')But it's spread out and getting to it w/o destroying water supplies
and flooding the surrounding air with benzene and other carcinogens is a cost addition.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')
History has taught us that if you got a lot of resources and that demand is high. Then, the price for these resources will drop. People will find more cost effective ways.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('McG', '
')History :twisted: 8O 8) has also taught us that if demand is crushed you got a lot of resources and the price will drop. And
people will find that the more cost effective ways involve a
drastic lowering of their standard of living. Because they can't
afford the cost of energy now. And the only way for BigOil/Gas
to deliver energy cheaper (only in the short term;} is to put
the onus for absorbing cost on the indigenous source and the
Planet.

Again, thanx for you reasoned statements. A pleasure. James
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 11:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Again, thanx for you reasoned statements. A pleasure. James


I would agree McG.

Thank you for pointing out how little information Berman has, how thoroughly others have discredited his analysis, what little information he used, and his own statements regarding not knowing what he was doing because he didn't have the information used by those who do this for a living who refuted him.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 12:24:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')Again, thanx for you reasoned statements. A pleasure. James


I would agree McG.

Thank you for pointing out how little information Berman has, how thoroughly others have discredited his analysis, what little information he used, and his own statements regarding not knowing what he was doing because he didn't have the information used by those who do this for a living who refuted him.



And thank you SoS

Thank you for giving us another convoluted series of statements
which only serves to muddy the waters.

And

When Berman is "wrong" you'll notice it's not in favor of cheaper gas and larger EUR's. Berman's 'wrong' in being too conservative.

Chase after the truth like all hell and you'll free yourself, even though you never touch its coat-tails.
Clarence Darrow

And remember when 'Fracking" Wells was clean? :twisted: :evil: 8O 8)

“The oil and gas business is a bunch of holes in the ground with liars on top.

Last week, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection released a report that concluded that natural gas drilling in watershed areas would pose “unacceptable risks” to residents and create “a substantial risk of chemical contamination.” Scientists estimated that drilling could result in hundreds of tons per day of fracturing chemicals migrating through the watershed.

Officials with the state Department of Health also reviewed potential public health impacts from natural gas drilling and, in a letter to the state Department of Environmental Conservation, said they “have concerns related to the potential release of waste-water as a result of leakage, catastrophic pit wall failure and improper waste-water disposal.”

I just can't wait til we find out Congress prevented the EPA from
regulating Fracking back in 2005.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 15:02:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')And thank you SoS


Welcome.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')When Berman is "wrong" you'll notice it's not in favor of cheaper gas and larger EUR's. Berman's 'wrong' in being too conservative.


Not according to the USGS. His EUR estimates for vertical wells appears to line up quite well with their estimates.

The real issue appears to lie with the results from horizontal wells. I haven't been able to find the USGS numbers for those wells yet. Berman says they aren't much higher than the verticals, which is counterindicative of industry behavior.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 02 Jan 2010, 17:04:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I have no idea how many times various "unconventional" (read: low-quality, bottom-of-the barrel, high-hanging fruit, low-eroei, isolated, poor-quality, etc) have been touted to a gullible investment public.


Can "tout" be the equivalent of "consumed" do you think? Because certainly no one wants to put all the high hanging fruit, bottom of the barrel, low-eroei, isolated and poor quality resources BACK any time soon.
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Re: Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 Jan 2010, 01:23:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'I') think one thing that is getting lost here is that there is a lot of gas here. History has taught us that if you got a lot of resources and that demand is high. Then, the price for these resources will drop. People will find more cost effective ways.
History has taught us no such thing, Athabasca tar sands production being a minor exception. (I wonder if the project would exist without subsidies--water, NG, regulatory and tax breaks, etc.) 3.6 trillion barrels of super heavy/degraded deposits have amounted to little.

I have no idea how many times various "unconventional" (read: low-quality, bottom-of-the barrel, high-hanging fruit, low-eroei, isolated, poor-quality, etc) have been touted to a gullible investment public.

[...]

Nothing has changed. We will never run our consumer-based retail/industrial on this stuff.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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