[leal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey want to keep things going until after November 2010 for political reasons but I don't think they can hold it together for another 11 months.

[Prince]

Yowzers, that's quite the read. Good find... Very good analysis and projections in that article. I don't know when we'll see this faux 'recovery' burst, but when I see things like this, I have to believe it is coming sooner than later. Numbers can lie for a while, but not indefinitely. And the long-term projected numbers haven't been in our favor for a long time.

[Newfie]

I dunno. Sounded like a lot of statements without much substance.

I would like to hear more opinions.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Sounded like a lot of statements without much substance.

[pablonite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') dunno. Sounded like a lot of statements without much substance.

I would like to hear more opinions.

[deMolay]

WShat is the solution? http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/18/govern ... -debt.html

[Rod_Cloutier]

I know a guy who lost 1/3 of his total assets (on paper) during last year's collapse. He has recently made all the money back cashing out at the market high point.

He said only the stupid people who sold during the panic lost money. He held his paper, and sold as soon as the market recovered. He told me the key to his successful investment was diversification. A liitle in gold (I told him about the recent gold plated tungsten scandal), a little in real estate (I told him to expect futher devaulation), a little in stocks, (I told him about the suckers rally), a little in government bonds, (I would have told him about the possibility of large scale gov't default but he wouldn't have believed me).

Despite what I told him, from his perspective the worst is over and the economy will completely recover by the end of 2010.

I voted for quarter 2, 2010 for the date of part II of the financial collapse, because by then the food crisis in waiting will reveal itself. Greece is a hint of the instablity waiting in the wings.

[Cloud9]

Trillions of Troubles: “…the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company--only Japan, Lebanon and Zimbabwe are higher.”

The purveyors of power through their hubris are evidently convinced that it will never end. Nobody cares. Everybody wants theirs. Forty years ago my economics professor told me that social security was unsustainable. He was right, but for forty years, we have lived large. Band-Aids and B.S. may keep us going for another forty years.

Then again, the current kakistorcacy has decided to save the dying state by bleeding it even further with more services and more taxes. It is possible that they may do the seemingly impossible; they may collapse the system. Should they do that, we will be forced to withdraw from Hadrian’s Wall. Europe may find itself speaking Chinese and worshiping in a mosque. We may devolve into our racial and regional factions.

We are more like Lebanon than we are Japan or Zimbabwe. Japan is essentially a monolithic culture. They are all the same race. They have lived through their long emergency without tearing themselves apart. Zimbabwe rallied its black majority and disenfranchised its white minority wrecked its economy and ended any protections to private property. Lebanon boasted one of the most diverse and sophisticated populations in the Middle East. The Lebanese devolved into their racial and regional factions,. They blew their cities to pieces, ripped their society apart and murdered the minorities they found hiding in enclaves within their various regions.

Can you imagine what Miami or New York would look like without a government check?

[Newfie]

deMolay,

Thanks, better.

[Novus]

Economic Crisis is like a Tsunami. First all the water goes out (deflation) exposing the ocean floor to curious onlookers and stranded fish alike. Then the ocean comes roaring back as a massive tidal wave (hyperinflation) consuming everything in its path. Do not be one of those one lookers when the tidal wave comes.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'E')conomic Crisis is like a Tsunami. First all the water goes out (deflation) exposing the ocean floor to curious onlookers and stranded fish alike. Then the ocean comes roaring back as a massive tidal wave (hyperinflation) consuming everything in its path. Do not be one of those one lookers when the tidal wave comes.

[lowem]

Who knows for sure, but I put down Q2 2010, that's when the next wave of mortgage resets is said to be coming.
And we all know what happened the last time round, which gave us the events of Aug-Sep 2008.

Looks to me increasingly that all the crystal balls are getting murky. Even the contrarian community is like, split down the middle, with that darned inflation vs deflation debate still going on. Whole bunch of conflicting indicators and contradicting opinions and forecasts. There's going to be a bunch of 2010 forecast articles these next 2-3 weeks from the community, would be interesting to look through them and try to sort things out.

Right now I'm at a 50-50 split between a major crash ie a Aug-Sep 2008 repeat around Apr-May 2010, or a relatively minor crash with a major over-reaction on the printing presses from governments fearing a Aug-Sep 2008 repeat. Of course both could be wrong and it's a "no-crash scenario", to mangle a line from the new Captain Kirk, but does anyone here really believe in a "no-crash scenario"?

[Stonemason]

Q2 2011

[patience]

I can't call it. Been wrong many times on this, but my guts tell me to get busy and do CYA,

[leal]

So, I still seem to be the only one in Q4 2012. One brave soul earlier in 2012 though. I read all the comments but still not convinced that it will crash next year. Am I deluding myself? Or is it a affect of drinking this beer?

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('leal', 'S')o, I still seem to be the only one in Q4 2012. One brave soul earlier in 2012 though. I read all the comments but still not convinced that it will crash next year. Am I deluding myself? Or is it a affect of drinking this beer?

[kmann]

Second wave? It will be a no-show. 80% of the US is fully employed and half of that with substantial income and still consuming. It may be a slow painful recovery- but a full recovery will come. And all the option ARM resets and future foreclosures? That will keep housing prices low for the next 5 years or so. And what's wrong with affordable housing? This economic downturn could turn out to be a positive thing in the long run - less reliance on debt, better preparation for hard times, viewing a house as housing and not an income source, etc. Recovery could be derailed by something like oil production falling off a cliff, but that is unlikely in the next 10 years or so. Easy living comes from cheap energy, and right now we still have cheap energy. It's just a matter of working out the details.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'S')econd wave? It will be a no-show. 80% of the US is fully employed and half of that with substantial income and still consuming. It may be a slow painful recovery- but a full recovery will come. And all the option ARM resets and future foreclosures? That will keep housing prices low for the next 5 years or so. And what's wrong with affordable housing? This economic downturn could turn out to be a positive thing in the long run - less reliance on debt, better preparation for hard times, viewing a house as housing and not an income source, etc. Recovery could be derailed by something like oil production falling off a cliff, but that is unlikely in the next 10 years or so. Easy living comes from cheap energy, and right now we still have cheap energy. It's just a matter of working out the details.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell it is nice to know there are still SOME Optimistic people in the world.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'I')t's just a matter of working out the details.