[pup55]

Iran News Report from OGJ

This report appeared earlier today in the news section.

In it, there is an estimated depletion curve by this character:

Fesharaki Bio

who is an ex-pat Iranian oil guy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ran is losing 350,000 b/d/year of oil production capacity, Fesharaki said, and the decline rate could increase to 500,000 b/d/year by the end of the decade.

[Shiraz]

I believe he is refering to depletion of existing wells, factoring out new production.

The numbers are alarming, but not near as alarming as it would appear from your chart, which assumes the depletion percentage given is net.

For example, you remember when ExxonMobil speaks of depletion of existing production of 4-6% per year for world production? Well, in this context, increasing from 7 to 8 percent for onshore wells in Iran is surprising. It is perhaps a high estimate. I agree, it would be interesting to hear what Mr Bakhtiari has to say on the matter.

[pup55]

http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/

Per this morning's news via the front page of PO.com: Iran's depletion rate is 400Kb/d/y.
This is about 9.5% of their total production, of 4125 mbd
Iran's internal consumption of oil grew 5% last year, according to the BP review.

Maybe someone more authoritative than the blogspot can update us with better figures, however, at this rate of internal consumption, Iran will become a net importer of oil within 5 years.

here are the updated production, consumption and export curves:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Year Prod Cons Export
1965 1908 201 1707
1966 2132 222 1910
1967 2603 246 2357
1968 2840 271 2569
1969 3376 300 3076
1970 3848 331 3517
1971 4572 366 4207
1972 5059 403 4656
1973 5907 473 5435
1974 6060 503 5557
1975 5387 571 4816
1976 5918 599 5319
1977 5714 638 5076
1978 5302 646 4656
1979 3218 692 2526
1980 1479 625 854
1981 1321 570 751
1982 2397 619 1777
1983 2454 748 1706
1984 2043 812 1231
1985 2205 893 1312
1986 2054 863 1191
1987 2342 891 1452
1988 2349 774 1576
1989 2894 882 2013
1990 3270 951 2320
1991 3500 995 2504
1992 3523 1017 2506
1993 3712 1044 2668
1994 3730 1099 2631
1995 3744 1204 2539
1996 3759 1248 2511
1997 3776 1221 2556
1998 3855 1160 2695
1999 3603 1192 2411
2000 3818 1271 2547
2001 3734 1277 2457
2002 3420 1385 2035
2003 3852 1472 2380
2004 4176 1551 2625
2005 3779 1629 2151
2006 3420 1710 1710
2007 3095 1795 1300
2008 2801 1885 916
2009 2535 1980 556
2010 2294 2078 216
2011 2076 2182 -106
2012 1879 2292 -412
2013 1701 2406 -706
2014 1539 2526 -987
2015 1393 2653 -1260')

[Taskforce_Unity]

Confirming through BP and EIA numbers, decline less rapid because of new production from Azedagan and Bangestan



Production (million barrels per day)

2005 3.755
2006 3.454
2007 3.228
2008 3.070
2009 2.974
2010 2.936


The EIA Country Analysis:

“Iran's existing oilfields have a natural decline rate estimated at 8-13 percent per year (300,000-500,000 bbl/d) and are in need of upgrading, modernization, and enhanced oil recovery efforts (i.e., gas reinjection).”


Decline assumption in the model:

Decline of 8% assumed for the period of 2005-2010


Production increases in the model (Based on EIA country analysis):

Azadegan production increase of 50.000 added in 2007
Azadegan production increase of 100.000 added in 2008
Azadegan production increase of 100.000 added in 2009
Bangestan production increase of 50.000 added in 2009
Bangestan production increase of 200.000 added in 2010

[EnviroEngr]

FLAG: "Some comment from Bakhtiari might be in order."

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��Iran's existing oilfields have a natural decline rate estimated at 8-13 percent per year (300,000-500,000 bbl/d) and are in need of upgrading, modernization, and enhanced oil recovery efforts (i.e., gas reinjection).”

[JohnDenver]

Some more material from the EIA Country Analysis Brief:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith sufficient investment, it is widely believed that Iran could increase its crude oil production capacity significantly. Iran produced 6 million bbl/d of crude oil in 1974, but has not surpassed 3.9 million bbl/d on an annual basis since the 1978/79 Iranian revolution. During the 1980s, it is believed that Iran may have maintained production levels at some older fields only by using methods that have permanently damaged the fields. Despite these problems, Iran has ambitious plans to increase national oil production - to 4.5 million bbl/d by the end of 2005, more than 5 million bbl/d by 2009, and 7 million bbl/d by 2024. The country is counting on billions of dollars in foreign investment to accomplish this, but this is unlikely to be achieved without a significant change in policy to attract such investment (and possibly a change in relations with the West).

[NTBKtrader]

from english to english

TEHRAN, Nov. 18 (MNA) – “Iranian oilfields’ production factor is to experience an increase from the current average of 25% to 30%,” caretaker of Oil Ministry said on Friday. Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh also indicated that the projected increase would take place within the 4th Socioeconomic and Cultural Development Plan by injecting gas from phases 6, 7 and 8 of the South Pars to the oilfields.
“Directives for injection of 100 million cubic meters of gas have so far been issued, however, due to gradual progress of the development plans on the said phases, the actual injection figures stand at 70% to 90% of the intended amount” he commented, adding that the injection plan is not aimed at increasing the index only, rather, it is a matter of preventing any drop in oil production as well as preserving optimization and national interest.

“At the moment, due to absence of systematic optimization and preservation in our oilfields we are losing an average of 200,000 barrels of oil from our reserves per year,” he maintained.

http://www.mehrnews.ir/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=255150

[Antimatter]

My take:

Recovery factor is to increase from average of 25% of oil in place to 30% with the aid of gas injection from the supergiant South Pars gas/condensate field that is currently being developed. But only 70 to 90% of the volume needed for injection is available. They are currently seeing declines of 200,000 barrels/day per year from existing fields and hope to stem this with more gas injection.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')EHRAN, Nov. 18 (MNA) – “Iranian oilfields’ production factor is to experience an increase from the current average of 25% to 30%,” caretaker of Oil Ministry said on Friday.

[Hegel]

"We can't use the oil-weapon any longer", "The Great Satan will f**k us up" etc.

Iran will have a sudden regime-change in early 2006.

[Tanada]

According to NEWS ARTICLE on the last of the page we have

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')raq exported 508 million barrels, or 1.41 million barrels a day in 2005. That was a 4.7 percent drop from 2004, when it exported 533 million barrels, or 1.48 million barrels a day.

[Zardoz]

Yet another big exporter in decline. It really is starting to look like the Bushies have assembled some hard data on what is really up with global reserves and have come to the conclusion that we're in deep shit. Hence the "oil addiction" bit in the State of The Union address. They can't keep quiet about it any more.

We're on the "undulating plateau" right now, folks. If global production manages to makes its way any higher than the current 84,000,000 barrels a day, I'll be very, very surprised. I'm convinced that the beginning of the global decline is just around the corner...

[pup55]

Part of this is increased internal consumption. We had extrapolated this awhile back:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic7561.html

They are about a year farther along the curve than we predicted last year with our data being what it was.

At the time, we estimated Iran to be a net importer of oil by 2011, but this suggests this might come faster. No wonder they think they need the nukes.

[backstop]

Pup -

Good to see Iran's nuclear power aims given practical perspective.

From their POV, if they are heading into dependence on nuclear energy, why would they dream of accepting dependence for enriched uranium on some external power ?

Personally I greatly doubt nuclear is the answer to their energy needs, but that doesn't appear to lessen the integrity of their case.

regards,

Backstop

[LadyRuby]

Hmmm.... not good. I didn't think they were supposed to be at a plateau yet, much less have already peaked.

I thought these were the only countries that haven't either reached a plateau or peaked. Is that right?

Brazil
Ecuador
Russia/FSU
Algeria
Libya
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Angola

Does this list sound about right? Cross Iran off the list then?

[backstop]

Lady Ruby -

while Iran may at or be near plateau, I'd put a question mark by Iraq, since neither national nor foreign armies prevented an 8% production decline last year.

No telling what the reality is, but Saddam's ex oil-minister in a recent half hour BBC interview spent some time complaining about the regime having been 'forcing' the reserves, how he'd warned of the damage this could do to them, and how maximizing immediate output had been given priority.

It's thus possible that Iraq has peaked -

Which would have been world news, and seriously for markets' confidence, had there been no invasion . . . .

regards,

Backstop

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I') thought these were the only countries that haven't either reached a plateau or peaked. Is that right?

Brazil
Ecuador
Russia/FSU
Algeria
Libya
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Angola

Does this list sound about right? Cross Iran off the list then?

[coyote]

Well, technically some of these countries peaked in the 70s or early 80s, right? We're kind of talking about secondary or even tertiary peaks for them at this point. They don't exactly fit into a smooth bell curve. Up and down and up and down and...



... especially Iraq. Talk about an 'undulating plateau.' Keeps building and crashing depending on what war's being fought in that neck of the woods. Theoretically, the country could stabilize yet again and national oil production shoot off to yet another peak. Looking at this graph, it seems that it'll be kind of difficult to make any predictions or even talk about a single 'peak' for any one of these countries.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'k')ind of difficult to make any predictions or even talk about a single 'peak'