[midnight-gamer]

I would like to start a thread about the relationship between Peak Oil, and the math used to study it's effects. My understanding of higher math is fairly limited, as I am a lazy student. I won't be able to contribute much on my own.

I'll start off with this: link
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[lonewolf]

x minus x equals zero

[2cher]

X + X = y if x != 0 && X != Y

[Daphne64]

OK, I've got a degree in math, so I feel obligated to say something.

The only thing that comes to mind is that those bell curves they always show to illustrate peak oil, and the inevitable statement that the peak of oil production comes at the half way point of oil depletion don't necessarily apply.

Individual oil field extraction is not a bell shaped curve - but the assumption is that we have many oil fields (none of which is a big chunk of the whole) with randomized discovery dates, and when you add the production of all those fields together it will make a bell shaped curve (I dimly remember doing the proof of this in stats class, but that was long time ago).

However, some fields are outsized (ghawar, cantarell) and their skewed production curve can throw off the curve. There are all sorts of other factors that could make production lumpy - higher price points bringing tar sands into feasability all at once, etc.

I haven't done a whole lot of looking at this, but I don't think we can assume that approximately half the oil is left when production peaks.

[Comp_Lex]

You're talking about the Central Limit Theorem. That's the reason why my software doesn't fit Hubbert Curves for individual countries. Further, it's like trying to predict the weather.

[Voice_du_More]

No she is not talking about the central limit theorem or she would have mentioned it.

The best way to show the relationship to a bell shaped curve is to look at cumulative production with an assumption of total recoverables. Then you can fit a logistic whose derivative shows the point of inflection, i.e. the peak.

This is probably my last post and will shortly be deleted since I am about to purposely offend the SS unit that now passes for moderators of this cheap rag.

So long.

[Comp_Lex]

Yes you're right. I read her post too fast.