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stages of peak oil and their consequences

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 21:51:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')If a demand crash were to occur it would be before an economic crash.



How can there be a demand crash before an economic crash? Sorry, you've totally lost me on that. Wouldn't the demand crash be caused by an economic crash? That is, people no longer have spare cash to spend on non-essentials, causing others to lose their jobs (all those others in our economy who have non-essential jobs, which is probably most of us), causing even less demand, etc spiraling downward.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 21:57:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'m mainly curious about what jobs are considered "essential" (non-"frivolous", non-"entertainment") and once those are eliminated, what jobs will those people be driving to (or taking the bus, train, etc).

<<<<works in a frivolous industry, doesn't drive to work


I think the job is irrelevant as to its frivolousness, people can keep their jobs, it just isn't essential they use a crude powered device to get to them.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 21:59:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'m mainly curious about what jobs are considered "essential" (non-"frivolous", non-"entertainment") and once those are eliminated, what jobs will those people be driving to (or taking the bus, train, etc).

<<<<works in a frivolous industry, doesn't drive to work


If a demand crash were to occur it would be before an economic crash. What people do after a PO doomsday doesn't influence the events leading up to the PO doomsday. So your question is irrelevant and off topic.


???? whats the attitude for? PO doomsday? Whats that, just more wet dreams for the anti-human brigades? I thought all you guys disappeared when PO happened and you had to go back to hallucinating consequences because obviously PO couldn't be used as your trigger anymore?

Anyway, why would there be a demand crash without a corresponding price increase to cause demand to contract?
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:01:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
I think the job is irrelevant as to its frivolousness, people can keep their jobs, it just isn't essential they use a crude powered device to get to them.



I'm just curious about how people will keep their jobs to drive to if other people have cut out all "frivolous" non-essential activities. How many of us really have "essential" jobs? If everyone cuts out their non-essential oil use, many people will no longer have jobs to drive to. Our economy is largely based on non-essentials and if those are cut out, most of us will be out of work.

I agree people may in many cases get to work a different way (or work at home like I do).
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Questionmark » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')If a demand crash were to occur it would be before an economic crash.



How can there be a demand crash before an economic crash? Sorry, you've totally lost me on that. Wouldn't the demand crash be caused by an economic crash? That is, people no longer have spare cash to spend on non-essentials, causing others to lose their jobs (all those others in our economy who have non-essential jobs, which is probably most of us), causing even less demand, etc spiraling downward.


No. If a demand crash were to occur it would be the result of a rise in prices due to a decrease in supply. An economic crash would occur after demand picked back up only to be met by an even smaller supply. At that point current business models would become unsustainable and only then will industries fall.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:08:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
I think the job is irrelevant as to its frivolousness, people can keep their jobs, it just isn't essential they use a crude powered device to get to them.



I'm just curious about how people will keep their jobs to drive to if other people have cut out all "frivolous" non-essential activities. How many of us really have "essential" jobs? If everyone cuts out their non-essential oil use, many people will no longer have jobs to drive to.


Well...okay...what jobs are frivilous? It strikes me that frivolous jobs are soon called unemployment if they don't make money or produce goods for someone, somewhere?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
') Our economy is largely based on non-essentials and if those are cut out, most of us will be out of work.

I agree people may in many cases get to work a different way (or work at home like I do).


Our economy is based on non-essentials, but that doesn't equate to jobs being frivolous. Eating at McDonalds is non essential. But the burger flipper doesn't have a frivolous job, just one related to a non essential want by someone.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:13:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')If a demand crash were to occur it would be before an economic crash.



How can there be a demand crash before an economic crash? Sorry, you've totally lost me on that. Wouldn't the demand crash be caused by an economic crash? That is, people no longer have spare cash to spend on non-essentials, causing others to lose their jobs (all those others in our economy who have non-essential jobs, which is probably most of us), causing even less demand, etc spiraling downward.


No. If a demand crash were to occur it would be the result of a rise in prices due to a decrease in supply.


No such decrease in supply is required to cause prices to increase. Collusion among Cartel members would do it without any trouble at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('QuestionMark', '
')An economic crash would occur after demand picked back up only to be met by an even smaller supply. At that point current business models would become unsustainable and only then will industries fall.


Speculation piled on innuendo and assumptions certainly not even in evidence, let alone true. Demand picks up, met with increasing supply until supply can't increase, price increases, and the next time I see that damn Prius, I'm BUYING it instead of just thinking about it. This demand destruction on the personal level has a structural effect on demand for the lifecycle of the car. Someone sells me an EV, and the structural change can be permanent. Or maybe I walk to work, or cycle, or take the bus. In any case, my behavior change negates any shortage in supply through price....same as normal.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Questionmark » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:14:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')I don't think you understand the discussion.

We were talking about demand for oil crashing as price increases.


Yeah..but that already happened. Happened during the last peak oil in 1979 as well. Demand destruction is GREAT.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
') My claim is that demand for oil cannot crash sharply or quickly because the majority of oil demand is driven by peoples needs.


So....the people that actually used less, thereby crashing demand, you want to pretend...it didn't happen?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Oil demand can only decline by the amount of it that is driven by leisure activities. Other than that, demand will hold steady and even grow until prices are driven to a point where current business models fail and we experience an economic collapse (PO doomsday/stage 4).


PO doomsday is nonsense, we're 4 years in and can't even sustain a decent price spike. There was a study referenced around here a few months back which claimed that 1/2 of all crude use was discretionary in the US, certainly those "leisure activities" could come to a halt and suddenly we've put 9 million barrels a day back on the open market, and crashed it in the process. Hard to buy into doomsday fairy tales when a simple change in behavior is all thats required to turn the market upside down.


The energy crisis of the 70's is a completely different animal then what we're currently facing. At the time the U.S. was by far the largest importer of oil with Europe in a distant second (i.e. the oil market was significantly smaller), and the crisis was followed by an immediate glut that lasted 6 years. Today we have to compete with China, India, Europe, and Australia. And then there's the fact that is production has actually peaked there won't be a glut to drive down prices.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Questionmark » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:19:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')If a demand crash were to occur it would be before an economic crash.



How can there be a demand crash before an economic crash? Sorry, you've totally lost me on that. Wouldn't the demand crash be caused by an economic crash? That is, people no longer have spare cash to spend on non-essentials, causing others to lose their jobs (all those others in our economy who have non-essential jobs, which is probably most of us), causing even less demand, etc spiraling downward.


No. If a demand crash were to occur it would be the result of a rise in prices due to a decrease in supply.


No such decrease in supply is required to cause prices to increase. Collusion among Cartel members would do it without any trouble at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('QuestionMark', '
')An economic crash would occur after demand picked back up only to be met by an even smaller supply. At that point current business models would become unsustainable and only then will industries fall.


Speculation piled on innuendo and assumptions certainly not even in evidence, let alone true. Demand picks up, met with increasing supply until supply can't increase, price increases, and the next time I see that damn Prius, I'm BUYING it instead of just thinking about it. This demand destruction on the personal level has a structural effect on demand for the lifecycle of the car. Someone sells me an EV, and the structural change can be permanent. Or maybe I walk to work, or cycle, or take the bus. In any case, my behavior change negates any shortage in supply through price....same as normal.

Will demand for electricity, heat, and food go down as the price of oil increases? The biggest threat isn't not being able to drive an suv to work, it's people no longer being able to survive because of our reliance on oil for EVERYTHING, not just travel.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:37:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')The energy crisis of the 70's is a completely different animal then what we're currently facing.


True. That one was WORSE. Here in the US, 4 years into our post peak nightmare and we haven't even gotten a decent lack-of-supply induced shortage yet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('QuestionMark', '
')At the time the U.S. was by far the largest importer of oil with Europe in a distant second (i.e. the oil market was significantly smaller), and the crisis was followed by an immediate glut that lasted 6 years.


The USA is still the largest importer of oil, and someone else is still a distant second. And we didn't have an immediate glut, we had a long slow battle between non-OPEC production increases, and OPEC market share collapse, resulting in the Saudi's opening the taps to enforce Cartel discipline in the spring of 1986.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('QuestionMark', '
') And then there's the fact that is production has actually peaked there won't be a glut to drive down prices.


Right...and last year demand destruction handled the price spike just fine, and it certainly didn't take 6 years either. That demand destruction is pretty powerful stuff.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 22:45:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Will demand for electricity, heat, and food go down as the price of oil increases?


There is this word....its called "inflation"...and it generally signifies that the price of stuff, most all stuff, tends to drift upwards with respect to time. Not always, but generally. And certainly crude prices aren't directly correlated with the prices of other stuff, there are many other factors involved, like who wants to compete for market share by keeping prices down and adsorbing the increased crude costs to undercut the price of their competitors, etc etc.

Certainly when oil skyrocketed last year, neither my electricity bill, nor my natural gas based heating bill, nor my food costs skyrocketed with it. Heck, my gasoline costs didn't even go up because I bought a more fuel efficient car.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')The biggest threat isn't not being able to drive an suv to work, it's people no longer being able to survive because of our reliance on oil for EVERYTHING, not just travel.


Hogwash. Now you are off spouting peaker mythology....try and think for yourself, check out JD's site, most of this comment is nothing but a throwaway found on other websites where the owners are trying to drive traffic towards "prep" suppliers so they can profit from the fear they generate.

We rely on ENERGY for everything I might grant you, but crude can be substituted for so fast it will make your head spin.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Questionmark » Wed 02 Dec 2009, 10:45:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Will demand for electricity, heat, and food go down as the price of oil increases?


There is this word....its called "inflation"...and it generally signifies that the price of stuff, most all stuff, tends to drift upwards with respect to time. Not always, but generally. And certainly crude prices aren't directly correlated with the prices of other stuff, there are many other factors involved, like who wants to compete for market share by keeping prices down and adsorbing the increased crude costs to undercut the price of their competitors, etc etc.

Certainly when oil skyrocketed last year, neither my electricity bill, nor my natural gas based heating bill, nor my food costs skyrocketed with it. Heck, my gasoline costs didn't even go up because I bought a more fuel efficient car.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')The biggest threat isn't not being able to drive an suv to work, it's people no longer being able to survive because of our reliance on oil for EVERYTHING, not just travel.


Hogwash. Now you are off spouting peaker mythology....try and think for yourself, check out JD's site, most of this comment is nothing but a throwaway found on other websites where the owners are trying to drive traffic towards "prep" suppliers so they can profit from the fear they generate.

We rely on ENERGY for everything I might grant you, but crude can be substituted for so fast it will make your head spin.


Energy, heating, and food suppliers can only absorb a short term spike (like the one last year). You're in denial if you think permanently high oil prices won't affect the price of other things.

And If oil can be replaced as quickly and easily as you say then why hasn't it happened yet? How and with what do you recommend we replace our entire resource distribution infrastructure?
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 02 Dec 2009, 19:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')We rely on ENERGY for everything I might grant you, but crude can be substituted for so fast it will make your head spin.


Energy, heating, and food suppliers can only absorb a short term spike (like the one last year). You're in denial if you think permanently high oil prices won't affect the price of other things.


Real oil prices have been trending higher since the late-60's, are you now claiming that this 40 year trend hasn't already been absorbed? And in case you haven't noticed, peak oil was 2005, and so far, whenever we have higher nominal prices, they sure haven't looked "permanent" by any stretch of the imagination.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')And If oil can be replaced as quickly and easily as you say then why hasn't it happened yet?


Its cheap and there is plenty available, even now, 4 years into the devastating throes of our post peak world. Why substitute before its actually necessary?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
') How and with what do you recommend we replace our entire resource distribution infrastructure?


Please, thats a ridiculous leading question. With another century of oil laying around requiring nothing but additional investment to extract it, why would humans be STUPID enough to run around replacing our ENTIRE anything? It certainly hasn't been a prerequisite of peak oil mitigation since 2005.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby Questionmark » Wed 02 Dec 2009, 22:40:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')We rely on ENERGY for everything I might grant you, but crude can be substituted for so fast it will make your head spin.


Energy, heating, and food suppliers can only absorb a short term spike (like the one last year). You're in denial if you think permanently high oil prices won't affect the price of other things.


Real oil prices have been trending higher since the late-60's, are you now claiming that this 40 year trend hasn't already been absorbed? And in case you haven't noticed, peak oil was 2005, and so far, whenever we have higher nominal prices, they sure haven't looked "permanent" by any stretch of the imagination.


Except during the 80's glut. PO doom doesn't happen as soon as we hit the peak. I laid out the process in my original post and PO doom would occur in the second to last stage, at the very end of peak oil.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')And If oil can be replaced as quickly and easily as you say then why hasn't it happened yet?


Its cheap and there is plenty available, even now, 4 years into the devastating throes of our post peak world. Why substitute before its actually necessary?

Prices are currently low because of the economic recession. We're lucky the housing bubble burst when it did. And the original spike in prices had more to do with speculation and peoples state of mind than it did supply. Like I've already said, it's still too early for prices to raise to a point where we're facing any kind of PO doom scenario.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
') How and with what do you recommend we replace our entire resource distribution infrastructure?

Please, thats a ridiculous leading question. With another century of oil laying around requiring nothing but additional investment to extract it, why would humans be STUPID enough to run around replacing our ENTIRE anything? It certainly hasn't been a prerequisite of peak oil mitigation since 2005.

If it were as easy as you say we would at least be making progress towards replacing oil, if only because of current sentiments towards global warming. The truth is that it's impossible to replace oil in any less than a full decade, and even the most optimistic estimates don't give us that much time.
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Re: stages of peak oil and their consequences

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 02 Dec 2009, 22:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '
')Real oil prices have been trending higher since the late-60's, are you now claiming that this 40 year trend hasn't already been absorbed? And in case you haven't noticed, peak oil was 2005, and so far, whenever we have higher nominal prices, they sure haven't looked "permanent" by any stretch of the imagination.


Except during the 80's glut.


I was specific. I said, "real oil prices have been trending higher since the late-60's", no one usually mistakes "trending" for "instant pricing". Look at 2005, that was a price spike, as was 2008. Look at the fall and winter of 2008...that was a NEGATIVE price spike. The trend, however, has been quite clear, since the late 60's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('QuestionMark', '
')PO doom doesn't happen as soon as we hit the peak. I laid out the process in my original post and PO doom would occur in the second to last stage, at the very end of peak oil.


Yes, I noticed. Did you seriously wish that to be considered, versus the claims by quite educated and intelligent people who were predicting contemporaneously ( not after the fact, as we are now ) that peak oil would in fact be a near instant event?

http://www.bluegreenearth.us/archive/ar ... -2005.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')And If oil can be replaced as quickly and easily as you say then why hasn't it happened yet?

Its cheap and there is plenty available, even now, 4 years into the devastating throes of our post peak world. Why substitute before its actually necessary?

Prices are currently low because of the economic recession.


Prices are currently low because the rampant speculation and carry trade from the summer of 2008 slacked off, and Americans started using less as prices escalated. Consumers demonstrated quite clearly the power of "behavior change" as it relates to peak oil mitigation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')And the original spike in prices had more to do with speculation and peoples state of mind than it did supply. Like I've already said, it's still too early for prices to raise to a point where we're facing any kind of PO doom scenario.


To early? 4 years into PO, heading into 5? You think maybe we have another generation or two before regular people even NOTICE? Or heck, we even have a decent shortage like we did back during the 70's?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
') How and with what do you recommend we replace our entire resource distribution infrastructure?

Please, thats a ridiculous leading question. With another century of oil laying around requiring nothing but additional investment to extract it, why would humans be STUPID enough to run around replacing our ENTIRE anything? It certainly hasn't been a prerequisite of peak oil mitigation since 2005.

If it were as easy as you say we would at least be making progress towards replacing oil, if only because of current sentiments towards global warming.


?? 40% of new electrical generation being wind powered over the past few years in the United States preparing for the onslaught of EV's isn't "making progress" in your book?
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