[Questionmark]

This is my prediction for the manner in which peak oil will unfold in the U.S. and the rest of NA.

2010 - Mexican oil production declines to the point at which it can no longer export any. Being one of the United States top 3 suppliers, prices begin to climb rapidly, regardless of the economic climate or state of demand.

2011 - The annual Mexican budget is severely reduced due to it's lowered oil sales and tourism. Mexican drug lords gain in strength and full blown war breaks out.

2012 - Economic collapse occurs and we see Mexican refugees flooding border states. Whatever remains of the government is locked in a war with the drug lords, which it has little chance of winning.

While the years may not end up being all that accurate I do believe the major turning point in NA will be when Mexico production falls below a level at which it can export, and I fully expect that to happen before 2011. At that point, peak oil will hit the U.S. pretty hard, no matter what the demand is.

Given the current state of war in Mexico and the governments reliance on oil for it's budget, we can also expect the government and economy to eventually collapse. This will undoubtedly send swarms of people north into the united states. Which will create a whole new set of problems for the American government and may result in some serious human rights violations being committed.

[Fishman]

The Mexican outlook is pretty grim. They only export three things to any significant extent, oil, people, drugs. Cantarell is plummeting, jobs are scarce north ot the border, so that only leaves drugs.

"some serious human rights violations being committed" would pretty much define Mexico right now. Might take a lot more "
some serious human rights violations being committed" before they get their drug war under control, assuming they can.

As for the US, does a fence constitute "some serious human rights violations being committed"?

[oddone]

Mexico needs to export all oil above 1.5M bpd - that's their (max)refining capacity. The present prodction is 3M bpd.

They might soon not have the money to buy back refined oil - leading to a quite severe shortage in Mexico - that will be the tipping point for a "failed state"...

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'T')he Mexican outlook is pretty grim. They only export three things to any significant extent, oil, people, drugs. Cantarell is plummeting, jobs are scarce north ot the border, so that only leaves drugs.

"some serious human rights violations being committed" would pretty much define Mexico right now. Might take a lot more "
some serious human rights violations being committed" before they get their drug war under control, assuming they can.

As for the US, does a fence constitute "some serious human rights violations being committed"?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')I was thinking more along the lines of the mistreatment of refugees by the U.S., given our xenophobia.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', 'I') was thinking more along the lines of the mistreatment of refugees by the U.S., given our xenophobia. It's going to be impossible to stop them from coming. The real question is how do we deal with them once they arrive.

[Questionmark]

I'm not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')they will not be welcomed by Americans.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')they will not be welcomed by Americans.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')they will not be welcomed by Americans.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', 'I')'m not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', 'I')'m not passing judgement on anybodies belief system, only stating the obvious and giving my prediction. Which is that Mexicans will inevitably flood the border states & California and that they will not be welcomed by Americans. We already have hillbillies using border crossers as target practice, what do you expect to happen as their numbers increase? Especially during tough economic times.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

[Questionmark]

From 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=5168712

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ensions between the United States and Mexico remain high after the shooting death of an illegal immigrant at the border last month.

[Pretorian]

Well what did you want? You are coming to other men's land with no purposes other than stealing their economic opportunities, sleeping with their women and excreting your personal waste in their water. If you come through a desert--- you'd better expect some action.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', 'F')rom 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '
')Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')Most of these incidences will go unreported for a wide range of reasons but to deny that this sort of thing goes on at all is simply naive.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', 'F')rom 2006, but exactly what you're asking for.