[Questionmark]

I think that by separating peak oil into unique stages that represent a process we can better understand where we currently are and where we're headed.

Stage 1: Divergence

Supply and demand diverge from one another and we begin to see prices rise above that which would be enough to adjust for annual inflation.

stage 2: Peak or plateau

This is the point at which production can no longer increase and the demand line & supply line continue to grow apart, driving prices even higher.

Stage 3: Decline

In this stage we see production actually fall. Assuming that demand stays high and continues to grow (not currently the case), we will see massive price increases.

Stage 4: paradigm shift

Soon after stage three we begin to see the high price of oil affecting business models, cost of living, and the unraveling of society as people are forced to adjust to life without cheap oil. It is in this stage that any doomsday scenario would play out and will most likely be the longest portion of the process.

Stage 5: Post oil

Years after stage 4 we will be in a world where oil has been replaced as the premiere energy source and demand may actually realign itself with supply. Resulting in a price drop and possibly the death of oil completely as it is forsaken by the worlds population entirely for cheaper and renewable sources of energy.

How long each stage will take and the ultimate outcome is still up in the air and will depend largely on how governments and people across the world approach the problem. Fighting for remaining oil supplies could make things worse and drag the whole process out while quickly giving up on oil and pooling resources could accelerate the process and bring about stage 5 in just a few years.

[davep]

You appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')There may be a small decline in demand as people give up frivolous activities (atv riding, boating, motocross, etc), but the vast majority of the demand is driven by peoples basic needs (driving to work, electricity, food, etc).

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')There may be a small decline in demand as people give up frivolous activities (atv riding, boating, motocross, etc), but the vast majority of the demand is driven by peoples basic needs (driving to work, electricity, food, etc).

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[frankthetank]

Americans drove ~2,922 billion miles in 2008... About 235 million cars/trucks... I would hope there is room to cut a few of those. That is about 12,000 miles a vehicle... Say consumption needs to drop 50%, avg needs to drop to 6000 miles...or 500 miles a month... i would hope i could exist on 500 miles a month... I'd garage my car for 8 months out of the year (warm months) and save on gas/insurance if i needed too.

Plenty of "fat" to cut out of the system, all we need are more job cuts (in progress) and another super spike.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')There may be a small decline in demand as people give up frivolous activities (atv riding, boating, motocross, etc), but the vast majority of the demand is driven by peoples basic needs (driving to work, electricity, food, etc).

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou appear to have forgotten the stages where high prices cause demand destruction and subsequent economic decline, followed by a resurgence that will again be thwarted by lack of supply.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')The only reason demand fell as much as it did during the recession is because the root cause of the recession was a housing bubble. The housing sector is one that relies heavily on oil

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')Although I suppose "non-essential" would be a better term to use.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')Although I suppose "non-essential" would be a better term to use.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', ' ')Although I suppose "non-essential" would be a better term to use.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')I don't think you understand the discussion.

We were talking about demand for oil crashing as price increases.

[Ludi]

I'm mainly curious about what jobs are considered "essential" (non-"frivolous", non-"entertainment") and once those are eliminated, what jobs will those people be driving to (or taking the bus, train, etc).

<<<<works in a frivolous industry, doesn't drive to work

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Questionmark', '
')I don't think you understand the discussion.

[Questionmark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'m mainly curious about what jobs are considered "essential" (non-"frivolous", non-"entertainment") and once those are eliminated, what jobs will those people be driving to (or taking the bus, train, etc).

<<<<works in a frivolous industry, doesn't drive to work