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Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 30 Nov 2009, 22:32:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'E')asy : 1982 is before peak oil. 2009 is post peak oil.

Oh, I almost forgot something else.
In 1982, we could still think about a better future.
In 2009, every day passing will be worse than the precedent.


Excluding whats happened to the stock market since March though, right? :lol:
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby timmac » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 01:24:14

In 82 we had Ronald Reagan, America's greatest pres,, in 09 we have Obama, need I say anymore.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 04:30:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I')n 82 we had Ronald Reagan, America's greatest pres,, in 09 we have Obama, need I say anymore.


That explains a lot about your views on global warming. It's really sad how many people slot into predictable ideological caricatures.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 09:52:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'E')asy : 1982 is before peak oil. 2009 is post peak oil.

Oh, I almost forgot something else.
In 1982, we could still think about a better future.
In 2009, every day passing will be worse than the precedent.


Excluding whats happened to the stock market since March though, right? :lol:

Who gives a rats @$$ what has happened to the stock market since March?

What has happened to the stock market since 1999?
Dec 1, 1999 S&P = 1,397.72
Nov 30, 2009 S&P = 1,095.63

But even better:
Nov 30, 2009 S&P =864.70 (in 1999 dollars)

So if you had $140,000 invested in 1999, by now your investment would be worth less then $87,000 after inflation?

Any thoughts on a 10-year lost decade? (Actually more than 10-years, I wonder how far you would have to go back before 1999 to actually reach a point where you are keeping up with inflation)

I thought the stock market was suppose to go up over long periods of time? LOL!

World GDP was about 61 trillion in 2008, so that crude oil production eats up like 9% of that? For the US I think it is crude eating up like 10%. If demand in Chindia goes up, combined with falling production in places like Cantarell and higher costs of drilling in places like offshore Brazil, I think $100/bbl oil and higher is easy to see coming.
Last edited by rangerone314 on Tue 01 Dec 2009, 10:09:04, edited 1 time in total.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 09:54:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I')n 82 we had Ronald Reagan, America's greatest pres,, in 09 we have Obama, need I say anymore.

Reagan and Obama have a lot in common, actually. Both good spokespeople for BAU and the corporations.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 10:37:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'E')asy : 1982 is before peak oil. 2009 is post peak oil.

Oh, I almost forgot something else.
In 1982, we could still think about a better future.
In 2009, every day passing will be worse than the precedent.


Excluding whats happened to the stock market since March though, right? :lol:

Who gives a rats @$$ what has happened to the stock market since March?


Me. How else is someone to make a little coin if not to ride the wave as it comes back up? I think I ended up 15% on the year prior to pulling out awaiting the double of the double dip.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')What has happened to the stock market since 1999?
Dec 1, 1999 S&P = 1,397.72
Nov 30, 2009 S&P = 1,095.63


The quote was how every day of 2009 was getting worse and worse, not how over 10 years the S&P500 has done.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Any thoughts on a 10-year lost decade?


Yes. I didn't start dumping money into S&P500 funds until well AFTER 1999, and I certainly didn't lose the decade, did you? The decade has treated me pretty well, but I didn't get into any of the nonsense, the results of which are still reverberating around the country.

Like I said before, those of us who have lived through a few of these, we know how to do it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')I thought the stock market was suppose to go up over long periods of time? LOL!


My mom has a financial advisor who certainly claims that. I jump in and out based on whats going on during shorter periods of time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')World GDP was about 61 trillion in 2008, so that crude oil production eats up like 9% of that?


??

30,000,000 / Day X $80 / BBL X 365 Days = 876 Billion dollars / 61 trillion = 1.4%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')For the US I think it is crude eating up like 10%. If demand in Chindia goes up, combined with falling production in places like Cantarell and higher costs of drilling in places like offshore Brazil, I think $100/bbl oil and higher is easy to see coming.

Go recheck your math, we can calculate the US number later. But at 1.4% it sure doesn't look like even $160/bbl would be that big of a deal.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 10:50:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'E')asy : 1982 is before peak oil. 2009 is post peak oil.

Oh, I almost forgot something else.
In 1982, we could still think about a better future.
In 2009, every day passing will be worse than the precedent.


Excluding whats happened to the stock market since March though, right? :lol:

Who gives a rats @$$ what has happened to the stock market since March?


Me. How else is someone to make a little coin if not to ride the wave as it comes back up? I think I ended up 15% on the year prior to pulling out awaiting the double of the double dip.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')What has happened to the stock market since 1999?
Dec 1, 1999 S&P = 1,397.72
Nov 30, 2009 S&P = 1,095.63


The quote was how every day of 2009 was getting worse and worse, not how over 10 years the S&P500 has done.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Any thoughts on a 10-year lost decade?


Yes. I didn't start dumping money into S&P500 funds until well AFTER 1999, and I certainly didn't lose the decade, did you? The decade has treated me pretty well, but I didn't get into any of the nonsense, the results of which are still reverberating around the country.

Like I said before, those of us who have lived through a few of these, we know how to do it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')I thought the stock market was suppose to go up over long periods of time? LOL!


My mom has a financial advisor who certainly claims that. I jump in and out based on whats going on during shorter periods of time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')World GDP was about 61 trillion in 2008, so that crude oil production eats up like 9% of that?


??

30,000,000 / Day X $80 / BBL X 365 Days = 876 Billion dollars / 61 trillion = 1.4%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')For the US I think it is crude eating up like 10%. If demand in Chindia goes up, combined with falling production in places like Cantarell and higher costs of drilling in places like offshore Brazil, I think $100/bbl oil and higher is easy to see coming.

Go recheck your math, we can calculate the US number later. But at 1.4% it sure doesn't look like even $160/bbl would be that big of a deal.
I never screw with funds like S&P... espec not in ROTH IRA. After we get a correction, I will probably go into a particular water company, oil ETF, gold, Canadian National (railroad) and Hasbro.


Thanks for fixing the math I was having a brainfart this early without coffee.

But it should be about 3.5% counting crude (@ 74 million crude and all liquids I think is about 85 million/day) so say 3.5-4% of world GDP goes to oil. I'd say a small perturbation in that causes a bigger ripple than just 4% would seem to justify.

I think we all know oil could never reach $2,125/bbl as that would be 100%. So at least we have a mathematical ceiling.

What % of the world GDP could the world tolerate crude oil eating up?

20%?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby deMolay » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 11:07:51

I think the 70's was worse than the 80's. In the 70's we had interest rates in the 20% range, an oil embargo. Stagflation and wage and price controls. I recall lots of men working for the county, burning brush and clearing right of ways as make work projects. I think this recession is worse and is actually a |Depression. We have way more unemployment now, foreclosures, bankruptcies etc. The 70's were an inflationary recession. This is structurally deeper and has not fully played out yet.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 01 Dec 2009, 15:21:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Thanks for fixing the math I was having a brainfart this early without coffee.

But it should be about 3.5% counting crude (@ 74 million crude and all liquids I think is about 85 million/day) so say 3.5-4% of world GDP goes to oil. I'd say a small perturbation in that causes a bigger ripple than just 4% would seem to justify.

I think we all know oil could never reach $2,125/bbl as that would be 100%. So at least we have a mathematical ceiling.

What % of the world GDP could the world tolerate crude oil eating up?

20%?


Don't thank me too fast, one glance at the numbers I used and I think I put in the wrong amount. Where the hell did I get the 30,000,000 number? Thats not the US or the world?

Lets run it again....except plug in 85,000,000, its all directly scalable, so we'll just use 85/30 as a correction factor to the original 1.7% which means (0.017 * 85/30 ) = 4.8%. Sorry...

So...$160/bbl crude would make nearly the 10% mark for global GDP, which was about the size of your original assertion, so the actual number is closer to 1/2 that, with the potential of being 10% if we have another speculative runup in price similar to the summer of 2008.
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