[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') was recently asked, "but who actually believes that PO was supposed to cause collapse!!" and thought that this was an interesting perspective on how hyped last years stock market taking a dump was scaring people.

So...economics triggered collapse....that trigger was pulled more than a year ago....... and.....??

I seriously think someone should tell the stock market!!

Does anyone know anyone who has starved to death yet? Mcgowanjm claims that 50,000,000 people are starving in America....a quick calculation shows that of any 6 people any of us know, one of them should be starving.

I know...perhaps....30 people? So 5 of them should be starving? Particularly since the trigger for collapse was pulled more than a year ago....I'm feeling really abused here guys, shouldn't some of these starving people be hanging out on street corners and such where us lucky "5 of 6" can appreciate how good we have it?

[eastbay]

There are at least five excellent Member Quote possibilities from BT's clear and concise above remarks. Which would we like to post?

How about this morsel??

We are, sadly, proceeding down Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Currently, we are chewing through "Self-Esteem."

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')here are at least five excellent Member Quote possibilities from BT's clear and concise above remarks. Which would we like to post?

How about this morsel??

We are, sadly, proceeding down Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Currently, we are chewing through "Self-Esteem."

[mos6507]

Just in time for thanksgiving. I wonder if they intended such ironic timing? It had to be a conspiracy

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')When looking at markets for confirmation or refutation of the "peak oil killed the economy" thesis, the appropriate market to look at is the credit market

[BigTex]

Mos,

Do you think that the implosion of the housing market, the implosion of many credit markets, the plunging of treasury yields, and the stock market crash had ANY connection to the oil price spike in 2008 and the high oil prices that had been leading up to it for several years?

It seems to me that this recession is similar to every other recession in the past 40 years in that there was an oil price spike preceding it.

The idea that a spike in energy costs could provide a catalyst to expose underlying economic weakness seems sound to me.

As you suggest, however, I do think that the REAL test for where we are in the peak oil process will be the degree of strength in the economic expansion coming out of the current recession. A further interesting data point will be to compare in the next 10 years or so the peak of economic expansion coming out of the current recession and compare that to the peak of economic expansion coming out of the NEXT recession (whenever that occurs). Steadily weakening post-recession levels of economic expansion in the face of persistently high oil prices over multiple economic cycles should start to get peoples' attention (I hope it does, anyway).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')Do you think that the implosion of the housing market, the implosion of many credit markets, the plunging of treasury yields, and the stock market crash had ANY connection to the oil price spike in 2008 and the high oil prices that had been leading up to it for several years?

[BigTex]

Mos, whether or not peak oil had anything to do with the economic panic of 2008, do you think that the failure of oil prices to dip for an extended period following the panic (as they have following prior recessions) will be a contributing factor to sluggish economy activity going forward?

In other words, whether or not peak oil caused the current economic mess, do you think it may be what prevents us from getting out of it?

I have always viewed post-recession oil price collapses as a form of economic stimulus provided by Mother Nature. From here forward, I think we may need to look elsewhere for post-recession forms of economic stimulus. Is there somewhere else to look? I don't know.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')In other words, whether or not peak oil caused the current economic mess, do you think it may be what prevents us from getting out of it?

[BigTex]

Mos,

I agree with you. Blaming Obama for anything at this point is like blaming the pilot of a poorly designed plane that crashes after years of sloppy maintenance.

The processes that are unfolding now are probably far beyond the point at which meaningful human intervention could have altered the outcome. "The Limits to Growth" analysis is probably for the most part correct and the economic system is starting to appear frayed, in part, because the underlying ecological system is beginning to fray as well (economic software runs on ecological hardware).

But that is to be expected, and it is why civilizations both rise AND fall. If they only rose, history would be a lot less interesting, eh?

The good news is that these things usually occur over long periods of time, and it normally takes decades instead of years for feared events to unfold.

The current social, cultural and political philosophy of economic growth as the ideal and consumption as a measure of self-worth will probably be grist for some Monty Python-type skit 500 years from now. Something along the lines of the one where they are throwing people in the water as part of the "witch test", except the label won't be "witch", it will be "industrial capitalist."

[sparky]

.
There is sometimes some fun in picking through old post
this one is a doozy cica 2005
quote
["Crash should happen long before peak oil ?
by Sys1 » Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:32 pm

When i watched the hubbert curb, the first thing i noticed was the peak extraction itself.
This peak means that we won't be able to grow anymore, so a crash will happen in our capitalism economy, because founded on debts.

IMO, things are not so simple. The question is not just about the growth itself, but its speed. The more you get close to peak oil, the more growth opportunities are reduced (watch the shape of Hubbert curb).
Some decades ago, the growing of oil extraction was awesome, allowing an economy's debt based to be healthy.
Now that the growing get slower and slower, economy is slowing too, becoming unable to pay the debts accumulated in the past. Economy can't get out of this vicious circle.

Knowing that peak oil is for 2008 (ASPO source), inflation explosion should happen somewhere betwen now and the peak.
Last edited by Sys1 on Thu Mar 24, 2005 " ] end of quote
link
crash-should-happen-long-before-peak-oil-t6207.html

Roughly , Peak oil and Peak debt should happen at about the same time
if one consider the debt to include government debt too ,
.....we should live in interesting time

[Revi]

Let's bump this thread. Do you think that peak oil will rear it's ugly head again? Gail Tveberg sure does, and it sounds like it may be soon. Here's her blog. Check out particularly Oct. 23rd's entry. She has a little different slant on how peak oil will affect us economically, but remember she is an actuary and the whole thing doesn't add up to keeping the status quo going.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/author/gailtheactuary/

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')et's bump this thread. Do you think that peak oil will rear it's ugly head again?

[radon1]

Didn't know where to put this.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-2 ... hart-world

[Subjectivist]

Seems to me all the places self sufficient by 50% or more not counting nuclear could achieve self sufficiency by building a nuclear network like that of France. It wouldn't be cheap or even easy, and as long as importing is cheaper energy only a dedicated leadership will male it possible. In the 1970's France was blessed with that kind of leadership and everywhere else was not.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'S')eems to me all the places self sufficient by 50% or more not counting nuclear could achieve self sufficiency by building a nuclear network like that of France. It wouldn't be cheap or even easy, and as long as importing is cheaper energy only a dedicated leadership will male it possible. In the 1970's France was blessed with that kind of leadership and everywhere else was not.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'S')eems to me all the places self sufficient by 50% or more not counting nuclear could achieve self sufficiency by building a nuclear network like that of France. It wouldn't be cheap or even easy, and as long as importing is cheaper energy only a dedicated leadership will male it possible. In the 1970's France was blessed with that kind of leadership and everywhere else was not.

[ROCKMAN]

Ignoring the silly words of our gov (“Texas’ conservative fiscal principles…” are not the primary reason IMHO but PO is. Or the sense that businesses will suffer less in Texas than elsewhere. And not just other US companies: I recently posted articles about a variety of EU companies locating here to take advantage of our much cheaper NG. And yes, Texas is generally business friendly but has been for many decades. So I see the shift in the last 10 years more related to an increased appreciate for the energy predicament we are currently in and how much worse it may be in the future:

“Dallas Fed Report Finds Texas Leads in Job Creation at All Pay Levels - A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas noted that Texas experienced more job growth at all pay levels than any other state in the nation from 2000 to 2013. The highest rate of job growth in Texas occurred in the upper half of the pay scale.

“Texas’ conservative fiscal principles continue to be a national example for stimulating job growth at all wage levels and creating opportunity for families,” Gov. Perry said. According to the report, the two upper wage quartiles were responsible for 55 percent of the net new jobs in Texas. The state also experienced growth in middle income wage jobs over the time period, whereas the rest of the nation saw negative or zero growth. Texas has succeeded in producing broad-based job growth in the context of job and wage polarization nationally. The most recent jobs data shows Texas with 5.7 percent unemployment, a full point below the national rate. Over the last ten years, Texas has added nearly one third of the net new jobs created in the U.S.”

[Graeme]

JPMorgan Explains: The Problem Is The Inexorable Rise In Entitlement Payments

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother question that comes up: why can’t the US spend more on worker retraining? The entry of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 accelerated a massive decline in US manufacturing jobs, and after the housing bust, the country’s unemployed construction workers need new skills. As shown in the first chart on the next page, why is less money being spent on training, employment and related social services? The second chart on the next page is striking as well: given concerns around peak oil, fracking, climate change, etc., you would think that public sector spending on commuter rails, urbanized natural gas vehicles, carbon capture and storage, safer ways of operating nuclear power (light water reactors), more efficient internal combustion engines, battery/electricity storage R&D and renewable energy integration would be rising. So why is energy spending falling?



The answer to all these questions is the same: these categories are declining since they are being squeezed out by the inexorable rise in entitlement payments. There may be negative consequences for productivity, job growth and national income over the short run and over the long run (the New Orleans infrastructure cost/benefit failure is one textbook example). Of course, some argue that there are sufficient incentives for the private sector to solve the transportation, natural resource, infrastructure, job retraining, energy and urbanization challenges facing the US, so that the above trends aren’t a problem. I wouldn’t.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')et's bump this thread. Do you think that peak oil will rear it's ugly head again?