[Dr. Ofellati]

Did this get posted on PO.com and I missed it? If so, Mods please kill this post.

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-oi ... ws-2009-11


I have been proposing for a couple of years (along with Memmel), that the KSA is falling off a cliff. The best evidence supporting that hypothesis, I think, is that the KSA didn't increase production during the great run up to 150.

I wonder how this plays in?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', 'I') have been proposing for a couple of years (along with Memmel), that the KSA is falling off a cliff. The best evidence supporting that hypothesis, I think, is that the KSA didn't increase production during the great run up to 150.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')od. Your map shows them stuck. Are you struck?

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Try again Schmuto. BTW you owe Maddog some money.

[TheAntiDoomer]

LOL, schmuto's new profile pic totally gives him away too.

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

[Dr. Ofellati]

I think I've got it, with tip of hat to anon poster at Platts website.

It's really quite simple. The KSA isn't producing as much light sweet stuff anymore, regardless of total exports, and, given that the percentage of heavy, sour crude is going up, and, further given that the United States refiners don't make as much money on that stuff, total imports have fallen.

Not only makes sense, it reinforces the position that the KSA has peaked and can't produce more CL even if it wanted to.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

[Dr. Ofellati]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')The price run-up stalled in mid-2006 to early-2007 . . . which, not so coincidentally, is about the same time period Saudi oil production stalled. Then when the price started going back up in early 2007, Saudi production soon followed suit.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Except that . . . they did. From 8.5 million bpd to over 9.5 million bpd

[Maddog78]

I guess not.
Anybody who has to change their user name to avoid the humiliation of a really bad prediction isn't going to acknowledge losing a bet.

More confirmation from the front page;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')pecifically, the near-record stockpiles of oil that currently exist not only in the United States, but across the developed world, have been made possible by the fact that OPEC has been increasing output at the fastest pace in two years. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that the cartel has boosted production more than a million barrels a day since March -- despite the worst global recession since World War II. OPEC's largest producer, the Saudis, have helped lead the way, increasing exports four out of the past six months. Saudi output has increased almost 300,000 barrels per day since earlier this year. Overall OPEC production reached its highest level in 10 months in October.

[Velociryx]

Maddog...please stop living in denial. Face facts. We are all going to die, and soon. OPEC outputs are declining, not increasing. You're not actually going to BELIEVE these guys, are you?

The dieoff began day before yesterday. OF COURSE the newspapers aren't mentioning it. Do you think they want to spark a panic??

But soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

Again.

Or...something.

Yeah.

-=Vel=-

Remember: If it has ANYTHING to do with finding more oil, demand dropping, outputs increasing, or alternate energy technologies, it's either a lie or a big oil smoke screen.

If it conveniently fits in with existing mythology, or can be "modified" slightly to fit, then it's obviously the truth.

C'mon...get with the program, you!

[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', 'M')addog...please stop living in denial. Face facts. We are all going to die, and soon. OPEC outputs are declining, not increasing. You're not actually going to BELIEVE these guys, are you?

The dieoff began day before yesterday. OF COURSE the newspapers aren't mentioning it. Do you think they want to spark a panic??

But soon...any day now, really...it will be impossible to hide the smell coming from the body dumps, and then the world shall know the truth!

Again.

Or...something.

Yeah.

-=Vel=-

Remember: If it has ANYTHING to do with finding more oil, demand dropping, outputs increasing, or alternate energy technologies, it's either a lie or a big oil smoke screen.

If it conveniently fits in with existing mythology, or can be "modified" slightly to fit, then it's obviously the truth.

C'mon...get with the program, you!

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, guess there will be plenty to eat then. I better start stocking up on the A1 right now.