[Jenab]

Some months ago, because Montequest had recommended it, I ordered and later read a copy of William Catton's book, Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. Although this is an excellent book, sufficient to clue in an intellectual who stays with the text long enough, Catton has a habit of going into academic technicalese or avoidance when the gory details are due for a mention.

Yesterday, I ordered a copy of William Stanton's book, The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000, from Amazon.com. Although it has not arrived, I have located a Google preview of the book, which introduced me to the term "Violent Cutback Level" (VCL). I had, of course, already been familiar with the concept that man is a social primate that competes for dominance within and between groups, but Stanton's term to describe flashpoint trigger conditions for inter-group Darwinian conflicts was a new phrase for me.

Unfortunately, the preview didn't let me explore everything Stanton had to say on the subject. So that will have to wait until my purchase arrives in the mail. However, I was curious about what Peak Oilers, here, think regarding circumstances that lead to, cause, or define the "Violent Cutback Level," this flashpoint for inter-group Darwinian conflict.

Obviously one aggravating factor is the shortage of some vital resource, which could be food or fuel, to name the two prime examples. Presumably it could be something else as well, such as shelter, or opportunities for gainful employment, or even a large gender-ratio imbalance.

But besides the shortages themselves, what would tend to make inter-group conflicts more likely? On what conditions would people be more inclined, rather than less so, to go out and find somebody to clobber for whatever could then be looted off his remains, given equally troublesome economic scenarios? On what conditions would such violent behavior tend to become organized, with predator groups forming pacts to cooperate in victimizing other groups?

Jerry Abbott

[patience]

I think the trigger points for most people would be something pretty dire. There are the criminal types, of course, who would resort to violence more readily, but I don't think the the majority of people do that without severe provocation.

We have seen riots under varying situations, like NOLA during Katrina, when NOTHING worked, and the LA race riots of the 90's for very different causes. I think Gerald Celente hit it on the nose when he said recently, "When people lose everything, and have nothing left to lose, they lose it".

Our area had a major electrical power outage when hurricane IKE made it to Indiana a while back. Some places were out of power for 10 days to 2 weeks, but I don't remember hearing of any violence associated with that, instead, there were a lot of tales of people helping each other. If the situation were to be perceived, however, as being very long term, or permanent, then I think there would be trouble. Same with food supply, water, heating fuel, or economic chaos on a grand scale. As long as J6P thinks he can cope, he'll stay pretty civilized, IMHO.

I don't see PO becoming a problem this way until it causes some of the above situations, but when the general public THINKS there is no way to cope, they get rowdy. I'm recalling the gas lines of 1973-74, when gas was only available on alternate days. Gas was sold to those with license plate numbers ending with an even, or odd number on a given day. If stations ran out before everyone got theirs, trouble ensued, usually limited to fisticuffs at most.

If it was generally known that gasoline was in very short supply, the price was very dear, and you may not get what you need at any price, look for trouble, and fast.

[Newfie]

Patience,

I don't know if you are right. I think that you have a mid-western perspective. I live in Philadelphia, albeit a nice neighborhood, so I can't speak for the downtrodden however.............my concern is that there is a class that is already pretty well without much already. The urban poor have already pretty much lost it all, even before the depression. My conjecture is that this group of people is somewhat calm because they have been getting some government aid. If that aid were to go away then there could be a rapid dissolution of civil order. Here is the scenario (roughly) as I see it.

State aid programs dwindle and/or are cut off. Food stamps, aid for dependent children and the like.
The police, already stressed and pissed because of pay cuts, are less able to maintain order. They make a limited pull out.
Local gang leaders fill the vacuum, some charismatic leaders start to organize the gangs into larger "militia."
The militia (manned by ex-cons, kids who have not finished high school or ever worked, and drug addicts) start to "forage" for food. They hit supper markets and distribution centers.
Police and National Guard are then forced to "do something" and make a muck of it.
TSHTF

I'm old enough to remember the race riots of the 60's. I don't hear them spoken of much anymore. I suspect they are moving out of our cultural consciousness.

Do you remember the MOVE incident in Philadelphia some 25 years ago? That was flat nasty, urban "homesteaders" burned out by the cops, firemen ordered to not put out fire, over a whole city block goes up in smoke. Men, women, and children burned to death. We had an (idiot) black mayor at the time. Had we a white mayor the reaction would have been different. Something similar could happen in almost any big city. Given the right rhetoric it could then spread around the country. Obama or not.

Very recently we have the student deaths in Chicago, the recent mass rape in California, all kinds of other incidents that, whether or not they are significant in themselves, could become a flash point to ignite the disenfranchised population. Probably not until summer though.

One last thought. My personal feelings about Obama aside I was, and remain, skeptical of his Presidency for one reason. This whole "HOPE" BS. Obama is one man. No matter how good he can only do so much. Perhaps much less. I believe that a large segment of the population put a lot of faith that having a "black" for President would cure a lot of ills. If he can not produce some significant change for these people then they may well become significantly disillusioned. And that disappointment can then, in the hands of a skillful propagandist, be used to mobilize them for God knows what. Pit that crowd against the right wing-nuts and you have the setting for rapidly deteriorating situation and nasty a dust up.

[Revi]

I think that things could get bad enough for the violent cutback level to kick in very easily. In Russia the average male's life expectancy went down dramatically after the fall of the Soviet Union.

It's getting worse and worse for most people in the US now.

A lot of recreation is centered around cheap gas around here.

They aren't going to be too happy when gas isn't as available.

[Rod_Cloutier]

The conseravative goverment in Canada (read Republican), is actively trying to reinflate the pre-collapse bubble. They are running a massive structual deficit to support 'an economic action plan' that involves tax breaks for people to renovate and invest in their already lavish homes. One time cash (grants) or payouts (mainly to known conservative voters) for business expansion and job creation, and large scale government spending on any project they think will win Conservative voter support.

(This all came with a enourmous political scandal attached to it. That the mailed out cheques (from public government funds) all have the Conservative name and logo printed on them, along with the conservative's canidate sponcer name attached on the cheques as well).

They may actually achieve the reinflated bubble economy up here, given their enourmous and reckless deficit spending. However, it is all deficit money, and when TSHTF (likely from peak oil) this money will all be gone and the economy will collapse again.

[patience]

Newfie,

I think you're right. I DO have a Midwestern perspective. I think I see it correctly for our area, but I also think you are right about the major cities. I've had the misfortune to work in places like you described with the poorest of the poor and their criminal elements. Yeah, those places are a powder keg. Part of the reason we live where we are now is the vulnerability of major cities to this sort of thing.

That said, human nature is very much the same, the world over, I think, but their situations vary tremendously. We have our share of problem people in rural areas the same as everywhere else. One of the big differences is, there are fewer people per square mile by a factor of 100X or 1,000X. So there is a much better chance that us country bumpkins know who the stinkers are, which may improve our odds somewhat.

I think there is pretty broad agreement that severe social problems will start in the areas where people are hurting the worst, and are packed together tightly.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'O')ur area had a major electrical power outage when hurricane IKE made it to Indiana a while back. Some places were out of power for 10 days to 2 weeks, but I don't remember hearing of any violence associated with that, instead, there were a lot of tales of people helping each other.

[mcgowanjm]

The NOGC should be the wealthiest place in America.

It's definitely the most strategic.

Instead it's the model of all productive wealth funneled
into finance.

And it would've been o so simple to save NO.

Blow the S levee across from the Bonnet Carre Spillway.

The problem: All industry N is stranded.

[PrestonSturges]

After katrina, the clearest cases of racial violence were white home owners and white cops shooting black people, sometimes entirely at random. They were so convinced that an army of negro cannibals was going to come boiling out of NO that they shooting people on sight. Black EMT workers attending a convention were turned back at gunpoint by neighboring law enforcement officers who were scared shitless by their black skin.

[Cloud9]

You have proof of this.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'I')t's easy to be nice when you have money in the bank, your home still exists in habitable form, and don't feel threatened by your neighbors.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'Y')ou have proof of this.

[PrestonSturges]

For a little perspective, go to youtube and watch DW Griffiths "Birth of a nation," the impossibly romanticized silent movie about the birth of the KKK.

There are many scenes of race riots, but it is the whites being terrorized by blacks, not blacks being castrated, lynched, and burned by whites. And whites are turned away from the voting booth by mulatto politicians and their black henchmen.

Familiar narrative? Go marinate your mind in Fox News, where they are still going on and on about ACORN. It's the same storyline peddled by the Klan, now on Fox.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')We have seen riots under varying situations, like NOLA during Katrina,

[Revi]

I think that the problems that are coming aren't neccesarily racial. I think it will be a kind of a class war. A lot of places will become very unsafe. Richer people will be able to buy security, and the poor will be stuck with what they have now.

There will be pockets of relative normalcy, but most of the country will fall into a lawless, poor and neglected state.

A lot of the country is there already.

[americandream]

http://www.socialistalternative.org/new ... hp?id=1000

Mexicans as well get it in the ass during times of economic downturn in Amerika. Don't know why I'm telling you the obvious but I suspect you have a bad case of Michael Jackson race/class confusion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'Y')ou have proof of this.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')We have seen riots under varying situations, like NOLA during Katrina,

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')
A lot of the country is there already.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')The ones in Glen Beck's mind

[Cloud9]

Yes I know AD Mexicans caught it in the LA riots too. I wanted to see the proof of events in NO. I full well expect that minorities will catch it on the chin should a break down occur. It should be remembered that different races constitute the minority in different parts of the country.