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Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby Pops » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 10:47:00

This is what makes me mad, regardless of the title of the thread people just post up whatever crosses their mind. why have separate forums, why even have separate threads, why even have moderators?

Just spout out whatever.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 11:08:53

Pops, you are throwing out posts that you think are off-topic when they really are. The topic of the thread really boils down to whether or not people are overreacting to peak oil. And if so, why is it that we may be biased towards being nervous nellies? So obviously that's a broad topic and it leads people to start to defend their positions, either corny or doomer.

Thuja is basically just plugging a slow-crash scenario here, and expressing an intolerance for other opinions.

This was an interesting topic until you started taking a hatchet to it. Why don't you just move it to the open forum?
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby ian807 » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 12:45:19

I agree. Our downward slide is going to be just that. Prolonged. Messy. Uneven. Difficult to recognize. It will happen in fits and starts. Rome wasn't built in a day and it didn't fall in a day either. Neither will we.

We're far more likely to start out in an Argentina-like scenario with economic collapse followed by years of hardship, exacerbated by ever increasing oil prices and eventually characterized by shortages, power glitches (It still takes oil to deliver that coal to the power plant), reduced social services, widespread poverty and political restructuring (e.g. the USA might break up into several countries). I won't see the end of it in the remainder of my lifetime (35 years).
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby Revi » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 13:40:45

I think Rome did fall in a day. It was sacked by the vandals in 476 and that is used as the date of the end of the Roman Empire.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby Nefarious » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 14:25:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think Rome did fall in a day. It was sacked by the vandals in 476 and that is used as the date of the end of the Roman Empire.


Are you referring to when the Visigoths under the leadership of Alaric sacked Rome in 410 AD? If so they sacked it for three days and only after a year long quarantine of the city. After a year the starving and cannibalistic Roman citizens said open the gates and let them in. So the fall would have then taken 1year and 3 days :lol:

Edit: I stand corrected historians look at the second sacking of Rome as the end not the first one seems the vandals did a better job of it than the visigoths
Last edited by Nefarious on Fri 23 Oct 2009, 14:31:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby thuja » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 18:52:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', ' ')The topic of the thread really boils down to whether or not people are overreacting to peak oil. And if so, why is it that we may be biased towards being nervous nellies? So obviously that's a broad topic and it leads people to start to defend their positions, either corny or doomer.

Thuja is basically just plugging a slow-crash scenario here, and expressing an intolerance for other opinions.



Yeah that basically spells it out- though any normie outside of this forum would call me a hopeless doomer. I just happen to be a slow crash doomer...

In terms of intolerance...you bet...the same intolerance most of us have for cornies...

Let me put it this way- if this site was overrun by cornies so that 90% of the posts were corniie posts- how much would you like this site?
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 23 Oct 2009, 21:36:28

When you are a peasant who has been knighted by cheap energy
you begin to get snippy with all the free time it affords.
On one hand you can analyze the data and math that shows the
royalty conferred is most probably a temporary condition and get
doomish, and on the other hand, you can read an article that states
there is pie in the sky (more often the scent of pie in the sky) and
take it personal as if they were trying to insult all the study you had
undertaken to date about threats to your knighted bliss.

I sometimes think that the price for being cheap energy royalty
is that the comfort and convenience has taken the toil out of
existence and replaced it with worry. In my case, I must admit
that it sure as hell has let me sharpen my snippy until it has a
magnificent razor edge.

Although tempted to apply my snippy to a corny or a doomer,
I will attempt, Dear Thuja, to just try and keep it in my "bag out
bag", just in case. Perhaps it can be useful and open some Spam.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 24 Oct 2009, 01:28:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think Rome did fall in a day. It was sacked by the vandals in 476 and that is used as the date of the end of the Roman Empire.


Are you referring to when the Visigoths under the leadership of Alaric sacked Rome in 410 AD? If so they sacked it for three days and only after a year long quarantine of the city. After a year the starving and cannibalistic Roman citizens said open the gates and let them in. So the fall would have then taken 1year and 3 days :lol:

Edit: I stand corrected historians look at the second sacking of Rome as the end not the first one seems the vandals did a better job of it than the visigoths


The decline and fall of the entire Roman Empire took over a thousand years.

Gibbon's "Decline and fall of the Roman Empire"

The easternmost part of the empire with its capitol at Constantinople didn't fall till the 1400s.

Based on that analogy, it seems unlikely that our modern western civilization will collapse in just a day or just a year due to peak oil, although some of the outlying frontiers may be over-run by barbarians in electric cars long before the center collapses.

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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 24 Oct 2009, 19:15:35

If we look at our lives and look at how much energy we dont need then all the doom becomes alot less necessary. A mixture of both technological advances and reducing our consumption of energy could easily see us get ahead of depletion curves and still living very full rich lives.

Even the much repeated fact that agriculture takes up 20% of our energy, cut back on the beef and lamb, reduce the more exotic foods and hey we can be cutting very deep into the energy per kcal.

Reading and contributing to peak oil.com for me is about getting informtion and then repackaging it out to other sources, getting people thinking and prepaired to act on the problem.We will stand or fall as a society not as individuals and if we are doomed, it is our intransigence that dooms us.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Sat 24 Oct 2009, 22:52:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'I')f we look at our lives and look at how much energy we dont need then all the doom becomes alot less necessary. A mixture of both technological advances and reducing our consumption of energy could easily see us get ahead of depletion curves and still living very full rich lives.

Even the much repeated fact that agriculture takes up 20% of our energy, cut back on the beef and lamb, reduce the more exotic foods and hey we can be cutting very deep into the energy per kcal.

Reading and contributing to peak oil.com for me is about getting informtion and then repackaging it out to other sources, getting people thinking and prepaired to act on the problem.We will stand or fall as a society not as individuals and if we are doomed, it is our intransigence that dooms us.


Well, all true, to be sure, but there's a big, implied "if" in your hopeful suggestion: we could do all that you say if people were willing to wind it all down in an orderly and peaceful manner.

No chance.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 01:12:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I have been setting a good example for several decades. Helped to form the federal organic standards, started one of the first CSA's, built a walkable community out of a degraded industrial site, etc. etc. Meant little. Am I bitter? Sure as shootin'


This is terrible. Pstarr, I feel so bad in denigrating your inability to understand the basics of this complex topic, I didn't realize you were hoarding your intellectual resources to tackle honest and reasonable problems, just in a different spectrum of the entire "how do we make the world better by forcing people to accept only my solution" game.

How about the next time I'm in California I bring the sports car, I'll collect you at your local industrial site or wherever, and we'll just randomly combust some rapidly disappearing fuel in an orgy of enjoying what the wonders of the SAE and hydrocarbon age has brought us, before being forced into an age of enlightened and politically correct electrically based transport?

A reasonable solution to the entire problem which the peak oil community hasn't yet embraced with the enthusiasm that many of us think they should.
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Re: Will the Peak Oil watching community please...

Unread postby efarmer » Sun 25 Oct 2009, 13:01:40

People have spent decades and lifetimes turning their ideas of how
things could be into processes and systems that are proven and
teachable and usable right now.

I am grateful that this great work has been done and is continuing.

Most folks see this sort of stuff as a bad place they would have to
go if the wheels come off the cart. And that is exactly when they
will try to go there in large numbers, and not until the myriad of
end of life for the cart ploys and scams has been exhausted.

I can see how the sustainable living tool makers must feel like the
old masters of the art world. People rave and fawn about all of your
great stuff about 50 years after you are gone.
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