Scientific American ain't what it used to be..........
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PeakOil is You
A Corny gets Pwned
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A Corny gets Pwned
by AirlinePilot » Mon 19 Oct 2009, 02:09:22
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Re: A Corny gets Pwned
by cipi604 » Mon 19 Oct 2009, 13:28:36
Let people dream honey and milk forever, it's called the american dream.
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Re: A Corny gets Pwned
by drew » Mon 19 Oct 2009, 18:08:14
So sad...., I have a subscription too.
It is a crappy story.
Drew
It is a crappy story.
Drew
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Re: A Corny gets Pwned
by Carlhole » Tue 20 Oct 2009, 05:20:22
That Sci Am article perked my interest about Leonardo Maugeri. He wrote The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource.
It was published in 2006. I have nearly finished the book. It's an excellent history with commentary throughout about the doomsayers that have always accompanied the oil saga. The author has plenty to say about the oil shocks of the 70's which he documents very well as having little to do with the actual supply of oil.
Despite the ever-present doomsaying, the real danger, from the producers perspective, has always been the threat of market glut. During the reign of the Seven Sisters and then the subsequent short-lived domination of OPEC, it has always been a challenge for oil producers to keep the many participants from completely flooding the globe with crude and destroying the market. The Seven Sisters, arguably, managed this difficult chore much better than OPEC (whose control completely broke down in the 80's, leading to a glut of cheap oil which lasted for the next decade and a half.
As far as memes go, Hubbert's Theory is a whole hell of a lot easier to quickly grasp than the reality of what the oil producers have always been up against. The reality is that oil supply is exceedingly complex. And predicting future supplies is just this side of reading goat's entrails. Hubbert himself admitted as much.
I like contentious debates. And it's always been my philosophy to read both sides of any issue at hand. This book is tailor-made for you if you are interested in the peak oil debate and want to be more knowledgeable about the whole history of it. Once the historical portion of the book is finished, Part Two begins with a chapter titled, "Are We running Out Of Oil?".
My experience here on PO.com, however, has been that posters only read the one side of any issue that they agree with - and prefer to attack messengers of contrary news and views. So I doubt whether many here will pick up a copy of this book at their local library, as I did.
It was published in 2006. I have nearly finished the book. It's an excellent history with commentary throughout about the doomsayers that have always accompanied the oil saga. The author has plenty to say about the oil shocks of the 70's which he documents very well as having little to do with the actual supply of oil.
Despite the ever-present doomsaying, the real danger, from the producers perspective, has always been the threat of market glut. During the reign of the Seven Sisters and then the subsequent short-lived domination of OPEC, it has always been a challenge for oil producers to keep the many participants from completely flooding the globe with crude and destroying the market. The Seven Sisters, arguably, managed this difficult chore much better than OPEC (whose control completely broke down in the 80's, leading to a glut of cheap oil which lasted for the next decade and a half.
As far as memes go, Hubbert's Theory is a whole hell of a lot easier to quickly grasp than the reality of what the oil producers have always been up against. The reality is that oil supply is exceedingly complex. And predicting future supplies is just this side of reading goat's entrails. Hubbert himself admitted as much.
I like contentious debates. And it's always been my philosophy to read both sides of any issue at hand. This book is tailor-made for you if you are interested in the peak oil debate and want to be more knowledgeable about the whole history of it. Once the historical portion of the book is finished, Part Two begins with a chapter titled, "Are We running Out Of Oil?".
My experience here on PO.com, however, has been that posters only read the one side of any issue that they agree with - and prefer to attack messengers of contrary news and views. So I doubt whether many here will pick up a copy of this book at their local library, as I did.
- Carlhole
Re: A Corny gets Pwned
by Pops » Tue 20 Oct 2009, 08:18:14
One of the things I really dislike about living in a small town is the small selection at the library, except for the left behind series ours is pretty limited.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: A Corny gets Pwned
by Carlhole » Tue 20 Oct 2009, 09:46:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')ne of the things I really dislike about living in a small town is the small selection at the library, except for the left behind series ours is pretty limited.
I noticed that "Age Of Oil" is available on Google Books.
Reading lengthy stuff online is something I never relish. But it'll do in a pinch. If you already know the history, maybe you can read the last few chapters there.
The first 15 chapters are historical, emphasizing the role of politics and historical doomsaying (more-so than Yergin's "The Prize" did). This is because Maugeri wants to prepare the reader for his later treatment of our present era of doomsaying. I read "The Prize" years ago, and here and there I've read other pieces on the history of oil. I can vouch for Maugeri's accuracy as to history. He was always clear and insightful, I thought, even if he does seem to have a fondness for $15 words. That's OK... I like words. He used them all totally correctly.
My only regret about "Age of Oil" is that it did not include an analysis of the dramatic price events of 2008. And the book could not, of course, because it was published in 2006. Maugeri, as far as I know, has only written two articles on oil since 2006. I'm curious what he would have to say about the 2008 oil bubble.
Maugeri seems to have great respect for Morris Adelman whose work I am totally unfamiliar with. He quotes him more than a few times in various places.
Lastly, for a reader new to the subject, this is the sort of book you really need to pore over a few times (and perhaps even write an outline of the text in order to get it all completely under your belt). However, I would guess that you have seen all of the ideas presented before. However, Maugeri does an admirable job of compiling and relating them all together in one place. Predicting oil supply is an enormously complex thing. Hubbert did the subject no favor by simplifying it so radically; people tend to believe what they can easily grasp. Unfortunately, analyzing oil production is fuzzy at the very, very best.
I recall FatherOfTwo as being a smart, concerned person who used to post frequently here on PO.com. He always had good questions; always wanted to sort the truth out for himself earnestly. It was probably from absorbing the kinds of counter arguments to Hubbert such as Maugeri provides in "Age Of Oil" that FatherOfTwo finally bid us farewell in November of 2008:
FatherOfTwo's Last Post
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'H')onestly I don't follow peakoil.com that much anymore (although I do pop in every now and then to the economic forum to read MrBill's very, very insightful posts) Here's why I don't follow it too much anymore, and why I would suggest doing a lot more reading before taking the "doomer's prep stage":
I started reading and researching peak oil in 2004 (as you can see by my join date and number of posts) It rattled me extensively as I was seriously uneducated about the topic at the time. I became a frequent visitor to this site and my appetite for energy related news and information became ravenous. I also became pretty depressed about the whole thing.
Over the years I have done a tremendous amount more reading and I've also attended the UofC's IEEE speaker sessions too. (I highly recommend those) With much more info under my belt and 4 years of reflection, I have a very different point of view now - and that is that we are headed for a gut wrenching adjustment, but doom due to peak oil is not on the horizon. This thread is not the place for me to extrapolate on my position.
In general I think blukatzen has good recommendations: living locally and sustainably is good regardless of what happens with Peak Oil. But as someone who has 4 years of this topic under his belt, I'd caution you to do more research before "prepping". peakoil.com is slanted hard towards the doomer side of things, and as with any topic it's best to get all the facts and a full sampling of viewpoints before betting the ranch on any one outcome.
Cheers and best of luck,
FoT
I'm inclined to agree with his final remarks. But I still pay attention to the debate... which rages on. Time will tell.
- Carlhole
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