PeakOil is You
Oil will be dropping quickly
Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by Outcast_Searcher » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 21:09:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I')ndeed. I'm a bit baffled about current prices, tbh. With such huge inventories, I feel the price should be lower.
I could easily be wrong, but I suspect that now that most people don't expect the world economy to implode short term, the markets have waken up to the fact that crude oil is a story with issues lasting more than a few months. The 4 big factors which keep me DCAing on oil stocks are:
1) The dollar.
2). India and its likely future demand increase.
3). China and its likely future demand increase.
4). Cheap cars like the Nano, and what they imply for 2 and 3 above, and in fact ALL healthy emerging markets over time. (Hint - poor families seem to CRAVE having a car, per various sources like "The Economist".)
So what is a "high" price for crude if the world economy recovers in several years in light of the above factor? North of $200, perhaps?
If oil DOES drop a lot, I'll just grin and get to buy more shares cheap. Again, I may be wrong in the end, but at least my time frame isn't that of a gnat.
edit - fixed a typo
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Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by Revi » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 21:35:58
I don't think that oil will drop because the heating season has begun. People have to buy oil, wood or natural gas around here to heat their homes. I think I read some place that the northern hemisphere consumes a lot of oil in the winter heating season.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by energyhoggin » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 23:38:05
if it keeps on getting higher there will be another economic downturn and so the cycle will repeat again and again...
Fact: There will be a limit to growth
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Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by mos6507 » Sun 18 Oct 2009, 00:05:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', 'i')f it keeps on getting higher there will be another economic downturn and so the cycle will repeat again and again...
I'm looking forward to the next one so that we won't have the confusion of oil prices and the credit crisis happening in unison. Only when we have a recession caused by energy prices alone will it do some good.
- mos6507
Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by timmac » Sun 18 Oct 2009, 00:53:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'T')ake your blinders off. Demand is down and will continue to drop especially below last year.
Transportation companies are moving tremendously less volume (trucking, railroads, airlines, ships, etc).
Airlines are flying less flights. This quarter is expected to be less than 2001. (If you don't remember 2001 flights almost came to a stand still.)
Employment world wide is the lowest it has been in years and still dropping. Car usage for traveling to work, pleasure, etc has been drastically reduced. People are lowering their thermostats to save money.
Russia's only source of money is to produce more oil and other countries are starting to ignore production quotas.
You all laughed last year but I had the last laugh. Remember I called the downturn at $140.
Think about it and have a good nights sleep.
Talk to you in a few weeks.
Transportation companies are moving tremendously less volume (trucking, railroads, airlines, ships, etc).
Airlines are flying less flights. This quarter is expected to be less than 2001. (If you don't remember 2001 flights almost came to a stand still.)
Employment world wide is the lowest it has been in years and still dropping. Car usage for traveling to work, pleasure, etc has been drastically reduced. People are lowering their thermostats to save money.
Russia's only source of money is to produce more oil and other countries are starting to ignore production quotas.
You all laughed last year but I had the last laugh. Remember I called the downturn at $140.
Think about it and have a good nights sleep.
Talk to you in a few weeks.
Why did'nt CoachT come back in a few weeks and tell us why oil is not going down.??
It appears to me oil price will increase with the falling dollar, right ??
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Re: Oil will be dropping quickly
by thuja » Sun 18 Oct 2009, 02:07:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', 'i')f it keeps on getting higher there will be another economic downturn and so the cycle will repeat again and again...
I'm looking forward to the next one so that we won't have the confusion of oil prices and the credit crisis happening in unison. Only when we have a recession caused by energy prices alone will it do some good.
It could always be muddied- other factors will always be in play- such as...rapid inflation, oil being priced in other currencies besides dollars, shrinking credit, etc. It will always be possible to obfuscate the underlying lack of oil until we are experiencing genuine shortages...
No Soup for You!!
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