[Blacksmith]

At some point the price of oil cannot cover lifting costs and production will either be severly curtailed or shutin alltogether. Now this probably will not affect OPEC, but it certainly will affect junior oil companies and as such domestic supplies.

[Tanada]

I saw a report on the news this week that China is having 8% growth in 2009. Surely that will soak up some of the excess capacity created by the slow down elsewhere around the world. That in turn should support prices.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'L')et's be fair here. Few if any of us here predicted the price crash. And on fundamentals, I'm not sure why oil has risen so much since.

[energyhoggin]

well it seems you might be right the economy is sort of recovering, the dow is at 9700 with oil hovering around 66. Lets hope it keeps this trend...

added: the details might not be right but thats besides the point. Peter Schiff stated the housing market would collapsed and that gold would go up to 2000 an ounce, he was wrong on gold and a few other things but who cares about details he was right about the whole scheme of things to come.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'H')ere we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

[yesplease]

How much oil do you think is counted twice?

[yesplease]

There's a world of difference between assuing the worst and making it up as you go along Peter. I doubt we need a barrel of Petroleum to make a barrel of Ethanol. Transport, which is the only all oil input, is about five percent of a gallon of Ethanol's energy input, and lets assume half of all on farm FF use is oil, although it's technically closer to 20-30%. So for Ethanol from corn, the most energy intensive form of Ethanol out there, oil accounts for about 10% of the energy inputs for Ethanol. A gallon of Ethanol has about 76,000Btu, so we need about 8,000Btu of oil per gallon of Ethanol. A gallon of oil has a little less than twice as much energy, so there's no way we need a whole barrel of oil to make a barrel of Ethanol.

I'm not going to begrudge the point that it takes oil to get oil, specifically gasoline, diesel, keroscene, etc... to get more oil, and so on. But that doesn't mean it's O.K. to make stuff up. Along those lines it isn't just biofuels and unconventional oil that require oil to get, conventional oil requires a lot of oil based products to make, mostly oil based fuels (diesel/bunker) needed for distribution of the oil and it's refined products. If you're really serious about all the oil that's being counted twice, just look up te energy inputs needed for refining and extraction (almost everything there is natural gas, a small amount of electricity, and way less oil), then compare that to gasoline's GHG emissions from production to figure out how much energy distribution, which is primarily oil based, needs. Multiply that by however much conventional crude we have. Do the same for Ethanol and stuff like tar sands adding the extra oil needed for stuff like huge trucks for mining, and you'll get the total amount of oil that's counted twice so to speak. Ignore any financial data that could be clouded by subsidies and just focus on the the energy aspect. It's more or less energy returned on oil energy invested as opposed to all energy invested.

[mcgowanjm]

Yes, the price of oil will decline quickly. And it will also
run out quickly. And more and more people, all but a billion or
so,
will not be able to afford it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')To get an overview of the all the coming phases, we must consider that history in general (not only the history of oil) will form a sort of bell curve: the events after about the year 2000 will form a downward curve that somewhat reflects the curve of events leading up to that same year. That bell curve will not be perfectly symmetrical, of course: the decline in modern civilization is likely to be fairly swift.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')The good news will be that we can quit worrying about climate
change.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')esplease, I am sorry you never learned about industrial life-cycle and net energy analysis and how it differs from work/fuel conversion efficiency measures. It might explain you cornucopian blinders. I am not interested in you endless dissassembly of simple truths, and I will not engage this a pointless go around again. Have a nice day.

[yesplease]

Only if you stop trolling and start making sense Mr. Peter!

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'H')ere we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'H')ere we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'H')ere we go again. Just like I called it last year oil has peaked again. Watch the next few weeks for a big down turn.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Indeed. I'm a bit baffled about current prices, tbh. With such huge inventories, I feel the price should be lower.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')And certainly the inventories aren't supposed to be topped up either.