[Maddog78]

I'll play too pstarr. Here are some of my favourite quotes from that thread. They are not the only ones. Storage is damn near full and the price is in the dumpster.
If and when it rebounds there will be plenty of gas. Storage will be high for years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')aleFromCalgary on October 14, 2009 - 11:50am I just got an e-mail this morning from one of the private-equity junior petes I'm invested in, saying that they are restricting flow on all their natural gas wells and coalbed methane to a bare minimum. Just enough will flow to keep the payroll going. They're not in trouble because they have no debt and a minimum staff. They specifically mentioned that they want to store the gas underground and wait for sustained $5/gigajoule minimum price.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'A')rthur E. Berman is Odysseus?
Based upon the quote you selected I very much doubt that.

[Maddog78]

Senior Drilling Engineer, Mid Continent division of a top 15 N. Gas producing company.

You will have noticed I restrict my posting to things that I actually know something about and do not speculate on areas outside of my experience, unlike many on these forums.

[Maddog78]

Go read my posts again.Nowhere did I outright dismiss energy analysis in theory.
In my posts you will see I said it could be that when EROEI is negative it could also be true that there is no money to be made.
I've said many times that EROEI is not, has not and likely will not be used in my career to evaluate projects.
It all comes down to ROI.
I've seen a few threads where people claim they can figure it out for a single well.
None of them are even close to being convincing.
You could spend a year working on all the variables and a drilling eng. could punch a dozen holes in what you came up with in ten minutes.
That is why I state it has no value in our industry for evaluating projects, especially when you do not ever know for certain what the end result will be. No one knows for 100 percent certainty what any field will produce over it's lifetime so how could you possibly know what the EROEI is, not even taking into consideration what your theoretical and uncalcuable energy input will be.


As SeaGypsy said, I have to be a pragmatist in my business. Considering a theory with so many variables that it is useless has no place in my world of signed contracts with fixed costs.

[Nefarious]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'G')o read my posts again.Nowhere did I outright dismiss energy analysis in theory.
In my posts you will see I said it could be that when EROEI is negative it could also be true that there is no money to be made.
I've said many times that EROEI is not, has not and likely will not be used in my career to evaluate projects.
It all comes down to ROI.
I've seen a few threads where people claim they can figure it out for a single well.
None of them are even close to being convincing.
You could spend a year working on all the variables and a drilling eng. could punch a dozen holes in what you came up with in ten minutes.
That is why I state it has no value in our industry for evaluating projects, especially when you do not ever know for certain what the end result will be. No one knows for 100 percent certainty what any field will produce over it's lifetime so how could you possibly know what the EROEI is, not even taking into consideration what your theoretical and uncalcuable energy input will be.


As SeaGypsy said, I have to be a pragmatist in my business. Considering a theory with so many variables that it is useless has no place in my world of signed contracts with fixed costs.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You do a discredit to your profession and education when you cavalierly dismiss net-energy analysis as a useful tool to understand oil depletion in all of its ramifications: production ROI measures, alternative-energy feasibility studies, and especially to our auto-dependent retail and service economic base.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are quoting Yergin

that's funny.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o exactly what do you cornies think about these gaseous green shoots?

Link to the Oildrum. Some tidbits:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e recently (April 2009) expressed similar concerns about the Haynesville wells – though his production decline numbers are stunningly higher – as much as 20-30% in a month, for an annual decline rate of 80-90%. The costs that he cites are up at the $7.5 to $9.5 million range for the wells, with a net final cost that the producer has to pay in the region of $7.25/kcf. He therefore concludes that the breakeven point for wells in the Haynesville lies at a price of around $9/kcf Henry Hub; with a minimum reserve of some 2.5 Bcf.

[nth]

Arthur E. Berman will be the first to admit that he does not have enough information to properly evaluate the EUR of the NG Shale play. I read his blog and in it, he keeps saying he does not have enough data and that he is wrong about his past EUR and that the new revised numbers are on the conservative side.

Basically, Arthur started out estimating EUR per well that are way lower than industry claimed of 6+ bcf. I think it was like 1-2 bcf. Then, after lots of experts in the industry complained and send him data to back up why he was wrong, he then revised then to 3+ bcf. Still below industry claimed 6+ bcf, but higher than his original estimates. He did state that due to unavailable data, his estimates were very conservative.

What I like about his comments were that he points out flaws or risky assumptions that the industry uses. For instance, the industry is using 65 years of production to estimate EUR. Wow, that is a long time of production per well. I don't think company's should be making decisions based on 65 years of production.

http://petroleumtruthreport.blogspot.com/2009_06_01_archive.html

[rangerone314]

Assuming it is possible, and assuming I would want to, two questions.

1) How much would it cost me to refit a 2006 Honda Civic to run on natural gas?

2) At current prices of NG, how many miles for DOLLAR would I get?

(I estimate 12-13 miles per dollar currently running on gasoline)

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'A')ssuming it is possible, and assuming I would want to, two questions.

1) How much would it cost me to refit a 2006 Honda Civic to run on natural gas?

2) At current prices of NG, how many miles for DOLLAR would I get?

(I estimate 12-13 miles per dollar currently running on gasoline)

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')The NYMEX spot price is $4.46 as I write this. With costs coming down in a lot of these shale plays, and the technology getting better, that price is making some of these shale plays profitable again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')gain?

[copious.abundance]

Some more killer wells. Massive production. Abundance aplenty!

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Four Chesapeake shales set output marks
Oct 22, 2009
By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Oct. 22 -- Chesapeake Energy Corp., Oklahoma City, achieved record gross operated production from its four main US shale gas plays.

The company reported exceeding 1 bcfd in from the Barnett shale, reaching 500 MMcfd from the Haynesville shale, topping 400 MMcfd from the Fayetteville shale, and attaining 100 MMcfd from the Marcellus shale.

The production levels came from 1,500 Chesapeake-operated Barnett wells, 125 Haynesville wells, 450 Fayetteville wells, and 60 Marcellus wells.

Since entering the Barnett shale in late 2004, the company has become its second largest gas producer.

Chesapeake said the 125 operated Haynesville wells are 20% the number needed to reach the same production level in the Barnett. Plains Exploration & Production Co. is Chesapeake’s 20% joint venture partner in the Haynesville.

[...]

Among recent completions

Barnett—The Day Kimball Hill A1 in Tarrant County, Tex., peaked at 16.4 MMcfd and is expected to average more than 13 MMcfd in its first month and exceed the previous monthly industry Barnett output record established by two Chesapeake-operated wells in mid-2009 that averaged more than 9 MMcfd.

Haynesville—Caspiana 13-15-12 H-1 peaked at 20.2 MMcfd, and Bradway 24-15-12 H-1 peaked at 18.6 MMcfd. Both are in Caddo Parish, La.

Fayetteville—Reva Deen 7-8-1-15H9 in White County, Ark, peaked at 8 MMcfd, and Collinsworth 7-16 2-10H in Conway County peaked at 6.2 MMcfd.

Marcellus—Clapper 2H in Susquehanna County, Pa., peaked at 10.1 MMcfd, and Otten 2H in Bradford County peaked at 8.9 MMcfd.

[...]

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome more killer wells. Massive production. Abundance aplenty!