[Ludi]

I need to check something I'm not sure I'm understanding properly. According tothis link

world oil supply will decline by approx 62% in 33 years, or about 2% a year.

According to this link

worldwide demand is expected to rise at about 3%.

So, if I'm understanding this, after peak, the first year or thereabouts, there will be a 5% lack of oil to meet demand, 7% the next year, 9% the next, etc.

Is this correct or am I missing something critical?

I hope someone will clear this up for me.

[Ludi]

Wait a minute, if demand increase 3% a year, wouldn't it be more like

1st year 5%
2nd year 10%
3rd year 15%

That can't be right, can it? What am I missing?

[clv101]

After the first year of supply not meeting demand and prices shooting up, demand will fall considerably, the 9% year after etc will never be seen. Over the last few months I've changed my mind somewhat about peak oil... in the short-medium term I don't think peak oil is really an energy problem. It's an economic problem. Whatever happens price will rise, this will increase the cost of doing business, inflation and interest rates will increase, businesses will fail, unemployment will rise, equity and housing markets will crash, savings and pensions will be gone...

Even 10 years post peak I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of oil available, maybe even at reasonable prices but the damage will have been done. The oil may be available but the unemployed won't be able to afford it.

In the long term 20+ years, peak oil is a fundamental energy problem but over the next decade or so I think depression induced demand destruction will outpace the declining production rates.

This is not to belittle the problem – economic failure is just how the problem will be expressed.

[Ludi]

I agree with you, I'm just trying to use these figures to convince someone else of this problem, and how it will destroy the economy. They don't believe me and think alternatives will make up the shortfall.

[Aaron]

This assumes that historic depletion rates will occur like in the lower 48 US.

Many, (myself included), think that is unlikely because of MRE.

Think 10% +

[Ludi]

Can you explain that in a little more detail Aaron?

[clv101]

Put simply, advanced technology doesn't increase the ultimate recoverable reserves much. What it does is allow a higher rate of production to be maintained for longer. However when production does start to decline, the decline is rapid.

Much of world production now comes from fields using advanced technology.

Both Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons said this in Edinburgh:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7398.html

[Aaron]

What he said

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is not to belittle the problem – economic failure is just how the problem will be expressed.

[Antimatter]

Depletion at 10% + per year would mean a URR far smaller than Campbell et al predicts.

[clv101]

Indeed... but we have to remember that the URR isn't fixed, it depends on the method of production. If production is fast then URR is lower than if production is slower.

[Aaron]

Oman

[Ludi]

Thanks for clarifying.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')url=http://omrpublic.iea.org/supply/om_to_ts.pdf]Oman[/url]

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')his assumes that historic depletion rates will occur like in the lower 48 US.

Many, (myself included), think that is unlikely because of MRE.

Think 10% +

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')his assumes that historic depletion rates will occur like in the lower 48 US.

Many, (myself included), think that is unlikely because of MRE.

Think 10% +

[Ludi]

I'm still wondering, given the projected speed of the decline, how some people can cling to the belief that "alternative energy will save our butts."

[mgibbons19]

That Oh Man! report is even creepier if you look at the 10-year. The depletion is fast enough that they are not even putting out what there were in 95.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is not to belittle the problem – economic failure is just how the problem will be expressed.