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Sci Am says 100 years

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Sci Am says 100 years

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 04 Oct 2009, 08:03:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')bout ten years ago these clowns convinced me of Peak Oil Pretty Soon, now...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ogether with new discoveries, the increased productivity could make oil last at least another century.

Crap, guess it's back to suburbia!
100 Years Of Oil Left


Article from over 3 years ago by same author:

Two Cheers For Expensive Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices of crude oil are high these days not because oil reserves are waning -- in fact, they are plentiful -- but because inadequate refining capacity has limited the quantity of crude available on the world market. And high prices come with an upside: they could convince the oil industry to invest in new capacity.

Leonardo Maugeri is Group Senior Vice President for Corporate Strategies and Planning for the Italian energy company ENI and the author of the forthcoming book The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource.


I had not heard of Maugeri's book before. Looks good. It's in my library too.

You know what this means, don't you?

ALEX JONES WAS RIGHT ABOUT "PEAK OIL"!!!
Carlhole
 

Re: Sci Am says 100 years

Unread postby Pops » Sun 04 Oct 2009, 08:47:31

From Two Cheers For Expensive Oil, 3 years ago
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')till, the danger remains that prices could stay too high for too long, provoking a drop in demand just when new production and refining capacity start to come on-stream. This, in turn, could send prices spiraling downward and put an end to the current move toward greater investment,

From "Oil refiners investment in complex plants backfires", 2 months ago
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Aug 12 [2009] - Oil firms that invested in complex refineries to process the most difficult crude and in theory generate big profits have inadvertently forced up the cost of feedstock, wrecking the economics of their plans, especially in Europe...

...sour crude, which includes more sulphur that has little commercial value and requires longer processing, historically traded at a deep discount.
But since July this year, it has traded at near parity to lighter North Sea streams, including Brent and Forties.

Some analysts have said European refiners might have missed out on the cost advantage of a wide light-heavy spread once and for all.

I don't know what Alex Jones says about anything but if sour is selling for the same price as sweet and is costlier to refine, it doesn't matter how many refineries are planned – either finished prices go up or the refineries shut down.


Some catch that catch-22..
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Sci Am says 100 years

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 04 Oct 2009, 08:53:04

Scientific American thinks we are good to go. National Geographic thinks we are not. Who do you believe? Read both articles and decide.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/

I for one tend to side with National Geographic. They have better pictures.
:(
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Re: Sci Am says 100 years

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 04 Oct 2009, 19:08:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') don't think static output or shrinkage equals no economy, but it certainly equals an economy completely different in its driving forces to the constant growth economy we have been using for the last 125 years or so in the westernized countries.
Iono about that. IIRC, U.S. per capita normal GDP was flat for about two decades starting in the 80s, and it looks like we're seeing something similar right now. People have dealt with and can deal with static output or shrinkage w/o a completely different economy based on what I've seen.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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