Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
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Have we ever ran out of any raw material?
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Have we ever ran out of any raw material?
by Agren » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 09:54:26
I read a short intervju with an economist today who stated that even though resources are limited we have never ran out of anything.
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
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Re: Have we ever ran out of any raw material?
by NeoPeasant » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 10:39:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Agren', 'I') read a short intervju with an economist today who stated that even though resources are limited we have never ran out of anything.
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
I would expect that when some resources become scarce the costs of finding and extracting them exceed their value so the remnants remain unused. We don't run out in absolute terms, we run out in practical terms.
Of course this should sound familiar to the peak-oil aware.
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by Egon_1 » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 11:11:40
Easter Island ran out of trees - cut down every single one. It was the end of their civilization.
England came close to running out of trees also. If coal had not been substituted when it was, the consequences would have been significant.
England came close to running out of trees also. If coal had not been substituted when it was, the consequences would have been significant.
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by JoeW » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 14:25:36
The US nearly ran out of buffalo.
The economist's argument about running out shows that he fails to understand the problem. The problem isn't about running out, it's about the ability to keep up the monumental task of bringing almost 10^8 barrels of the stuff to market day after day when it's getting harder to find, in harsher environments, and in smaller reservoirs.
Tell the economist to draw a graph that starts at x=1800, y=0, ends at x=2500, y=0 and has some positive numbers in between, but has no maximum.
It is mathematically impossible to do so. If x is years and y is oil produced that year, then you have just shown him the most basic concept of peak oil theory. Whatever shape the curve has, oil production will have a peak value.
The rest is a matter of modeling based on observation, and prone to error. No one can predict with certainty when the peak will happen, or what the consequences (if any?) will be, but it is mathematically impossible to avoid.
The economist's argument about running out shows that he fails to understand the problem. The problem isn't about running out, it's about the ability to keep up the monumental task of bringing almost 10^8 barrels of the stuff to market day after day when it's getting harder to find, in harsher environments, and in smaller reservoirs.
Tell the economist to draw a graph that starts at x=1800, y=0, ends at x=2500, y=0 and has some positive numbers in between, but has no maximum.
It is mathematically impossible to do so. If x is years and y is oil produced that year, then you have just shown him the most basic concept of peak oil theory. Whatever shape the curve has, oil production will have a peak value.
The rest is a matter of modeling based on observation, and prone to error. No one can predict with certainty when the peak will happen, or what the consequences (if any?) will be, but it is mathematically impossible to avoid.
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by Falconoffury » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 14:47:24
I believe we ran out of guano off the coast of south america.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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by BiGG » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 16:14:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Egon_1', 'E')aster Island ran out of trees - cut down every single one. It was the end of their civilization.
England came close to running out of trees also. If coal had not been substituted when it was, the consequences would have been significant.
England came close to running out of trees also. If coal had not been substituted when it was, the consequences would have been significant.
You would think those idiots would have thought about replanting a few along the way like any simpleton could figure out. I’m sure glad man is only that stupid still in other parts of the world unlike America & Canada and a few other places where we know what an acorn or a walnut is used for.
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Re: Have we ever ran out of any raw material?
by Specop_007 » Fri 29 Apr 2005, 18:10:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Agren', 'I') read a short intervju with an economist today who stated that even though resources are limited we have never ran out of anything.
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
Is this true? Does anyone know of any raw material we have actually ran out of? Or any that we have substituted out of usage because of price?
I know this is not a good argument and all that, but that's beside the point right now
I would expect that when some resources become scarce the costs of finding and extracting them exceed their value so the remnants remain unused. We don't run out in absolute terms, we run out in practical terms.
Of course this should sound familiar to the peak-oil aware.
Sounds alot like pussy. Except in this case man keeps on payin top dollar to get a peice.
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Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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