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Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 12:34:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')See the 'Export Land Model' per Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown as debated, defined, and described at the Oildrum. Wiki has examples Link


And don't forget to apply some of that critical thinking us Doomers are so proud of pretending that we do by examining these comments on that particular "model" as well.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... gence.html
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby Pops » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 12:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')nd as long as the oil companies keep finding "enough" ( however much that might be ) everyone will probably continue to not notice...lets all hear it for demand destruction and substitution.

Hip Hip!

That's where we've been for a while now - according to BP, Reserves/Production has been stuck at around 40 years for the last 30 years. We keep finding more but we keep wanting more too.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 12:41:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')nd as long as the oil companies keep finding "enough" ( however much that might be ) everyone will probably continue to not notice...lets all hear it for demand destruction and substitution.

Hip Hip!

That's where we've been for a while now - according to BP, Reserves/Production has been stuck at around 40 years for the last 30 years. We keep finding more but we keep wanting more too.


Such a balance is maybe not such a bad thing. Can't continue indefinitely using only oil of course, but after oil there are the unconventional oils which tend to get ignored, but won't forever. Then there is the conversion of all those thousands of years of natural gas supplies into liquid fuels for another century of supply for those who MUST have a liquid fuel while the part of the world which really doesn't need it ( personal transport, most medium transport, random generators ) start using something better and leave the nasty polluting liquids to industries which can afford to pay the higher price to justify the conversion and such.
Peak Oil Obfuscation Protocol 101: POOP101

Pretend the phrase, " None are so blind as those who will not see." only applies to everyone else.
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 13:44:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') will grant JD's pompous self-serving little 'blog' a read as soon as he nails down his agenda. He used to be firmly in the [smilie=5propeller.gif] Spin-Head realm but now that grants geology a place in his world-view ("DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.") I find his rants merely tedious, not ludicrous anymore. I miss his Space Methane and Quorn (tm) from Outer Space.


So many people come along screaming nonsense like "YOU CLAIM THERE CAN BE INFINITE GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD!!" which is nothing but a peaker manufactured strawman that it was ridiculous. So he spelled out the obvious...as noted...for the IDIOTS.

Interesting that its the only piece you appear to have worked your way through to date. :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Until JD clarifies his conditions and exceptions and takes another entertaining/idiotic stand again, I have to consider his opinions to be merely lost in the 'blogassphere' :twisted:


Which translates to, "I'm not smart enough to even critique his objective review of the Export/Land model, so I'll change the subject before I reveal more stuff I don't know which Short or YesPlease will notice and call me on."

Understood. And a reasonable safe path to take, rather than actually engaging anyone about the quality of the ideas in question.
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 15:59:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Come on -sense! There isn't an objective bone in JD's head.


Really? Have you put the time in necessary to even UNDERSTAND some of the things he posts about to determine this? Or, in true believer fashion, are you simply saying what you believe and pretending its factual in nature?

Why not tackle an easy one in another thread, or a thread which is already on topic?

Post #83 seems reasonable, considering its bearing on how the rest of the world will go, and its on-topic nature.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... y-oil.html
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby Pops » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 17:29:07

Ya know, watching you two is really getting old, neither of you add anything new to the discussion beyond silly names and both have made a sacred vow to not change opinion.

So either make a case the rest can learn from or continue your pissing contest via PM.
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Re: Oil Everywhere: it's a boom year for new finds

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 17:57:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') certainly don't know. I do like "demand creation" though, thats a good one. I wonder if thats even possible for crude when faced by the onslaught of Insights, Prius's, Volts, Smartcars and some of us starting to take a bus to work? In this country anyway, I suppose whatever supply we free up will find its users somewhere else until they get into the same "electric transport is better than ICE powered transport" bent that we are slowly learning, a hybrid at a time.
Elasticity of demand applies to both increases and decreases in consumption, while demand destruction only applies to decreases in consumption. We clearly have both, but I haven't seen anyone post about demand creation. Again, yay for groupthink? ;^)

OECD's price elasticity of demand appears to be quite high, so while Chindia will probably continue to gradually increase oil consumption, if there are greater cuts in consumption they will likely be from OECD due to higher prices, possibly from breakthroughs in alternative vehicle commoditization, although that's probably a couple decades away IMO even though suitable battery tech is here now.

I also don't buy the whole, whatever OCED doesn't use someone else will as a lemma. The real world doesn't work like that since OPEC has enough production to set prices. Normally, if we cut oil consumption, then price drops, and consumption increases a bit because price dropped. IRL, since OPEC as a cartel can stabilize price, if we cut consumption they cut production and price stays where it is. Since there's no decrease in price, there isn't a rebound in consumption typically seen w/ unreguated commodities.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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