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Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 21 Sep 2009, 15:00:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')The idea of demand going down is humorous.


Nobody ever said you have to take my word for it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... iq7K1Ch3BU
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Mon 21 Sep 2009, 15:21:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', '[')size=150]Total issues oil shortage warning [/size]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"What we have to decide today is production for 2010-2015. So in between we might be faced with insufficient oil to meet demand."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8266200.stm
(bolding mine)

This is the real issue: the day when the supply and demand curves cross. When that happens these discussions leave the theoretical realm, because people not getting their oil fix are going to cause serious problems.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 21 Sep 2009, 15:36:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', '[')size=150]Total issues oil shortage warning [/size]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"What we have to decide today is production for 2010-2015. So in between we might be faced with insufficient oil to meet demand."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8266200.stm
(bolding mine)

This is the real issue: the day when the supply and demand curves cross. When that happens these discussions leave the theoretical realm, because people not getting their oil fix are going to cause serious problems.


That article is talking about rust, not geology. That is kind of Matt Simmons' current (rejiggered) mantra, that the economic downturn has made oil cheaper in the short-term but sabotaged mid-term oil supply due to the pulling of investment. It's concerning, but not as concerning as geologic oil depletion.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby Maddog78 » Mon 21 Sep 2009, 15:54:50

Bring on the "Rust" depletion.

I know a lot of unemployed oil workers that would like to see it.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 02:48:10

The way I read Matt's stuff lately is that he is saying Rust will add to the problem. I dont think he is going off message, just pointing out another issue which we appear to be screwing up. There is plenty of good evidence to suggest things all around the oil patch have been put on hold for at least a while. None of that is positive from a production standpoint and lowered revenues means further delayed progams and money for infrastructure.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby americandream » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 03:07:53

short...a little commonsense here. Any reduction in demand if any will be inconsequential and very brief.....an undeveloped but developing 5 out of 6 billion of this planet's population will ensure that. Even that should be evident to you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')The idea of demand going down is humorous.


Nobody ever said you have to take my word for it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... iq7K1Ch3BU
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby KevO » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 09:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Or the economy will have to be kept in a permanent recession/depression.


we have a correct answer nearly. It won't be kept in it it will just collapse.
I stated at this very forum 5 years ago that the next recesion will be the very last recession. I still stand by that.
But do watch this vid - doomer, scary but somehow accepted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnxGd_zUUjE&feature=channel_page

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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby americandream » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 15:48:20

I'm inclined to agree with you there although I reckon we will have a few recessions to go with a terminal depression being the killer. I think the Chinese are being worked on to keep this leaking tub afloat. Kinda bizarre that a (nominally) communist state should come to capitalism's rescue!!!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Or the economy will have to be kept in a permanent recession/depression.

we have a correct answer nearly. It won't be kept in it it will just collapse.
I stated at this very forum 5 years ago that the next recesion will be the very last recession. I still stand by that.
But do watch this vid - doomer, scary but somehow accepted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnxGd_zUUjE&feature=channel_page

.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 16:09:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m inclined to agree with you there although I reckon we will have a few recessions to go with a terminal depression being the killer. I think the Chinese are being worked on to keep this leaking tub afloat. Kinda bizarre that a (nominally) communist state should come to capitalism's rescue!!!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Or the economy will have to be kept in a permanent recession/depression.

we have a correct answer nearly. It won't be kept in it it will just collapse.
I stated at this very forum 5 years ago that the next recesion will be the very last recession. I still stand by that.
But do watch this vid - doomer, scary but somehow accepted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnxGd_zUUjE&feature=channel_page

.

When the American empire ends, the Chinese figure they will get the keys to the house, the same way the Americans inherited the keys when the British empire ended.

I expect a less-than smooth transition, because I'm sure not everyone in the US will play ball.

The joke is on the Chinese, if they think it'll amount to much for very long.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby americandream » Tue 22 Sep 2009, 16:20:46

Actually I disagree with you. From my experience with Chinese corporates, they are desperate to get what few crumbs they can off the table. Chinese boardrooms are invariably headed up by Western experts and I can tell you now, much of China is essentially a front for western capital. The Chinese are as much prisoners of global capital as we are, even more so in fact as pay parity between the West and China is epically vast.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'m inclined to agree with you there although I reckon we will have a few recessions to go with a terminal depression being the killer. I think the Chinese are being worked on to keep this leaking tub afloat. Kinda bizarre that a (nominally) communist state should come to capitalism's rescue!!!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Or the economy will have to be kept in a permanent recession/depression.

we have a correct answer nearly. It won't be kept in it it will just collapse.
I stated at this very forum 5 years ago that the next recesion will be the very last recession. I still stand by that.
But do watch this vid - doomer, scary but somehow accepted
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnxGd_zUUjE&feature=channel_page

.

When the American empire ends, the Chinese figure they will get the keys to the house, the same way the Americans inherited the keys when the British empire ended.

I expect a less-than smooth transition, because I'm sure not everyone in the US will play ball.

The joke is on the Chinese, if they think it'll amount to much for very long.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Wed 23 Sep 2009, 18:13:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', '[')size=150]Total issues oil shortage warning [/size]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"What we have to decide today is production for 2010-2015. So in between we might be faced with insufficient oil to meet demand."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8266200.stm
(bolding mine)

This is the real issue: the day when the supply and demand curves cross. When that happens these discussions leave the theoretical realm, because people not getting their oil fix are going to cause serious problems.


That article is talking about rust, not geology. That is kind of Matt Simmons' current (rejiggered) mantra, that the economic downturn has made oil cheaper in the short-term but sabotaged mid-term oil supply due to the pulling of investment. It's concerning, but not as concerning as geologic oil depletion.

Honestly, it makes no difference why we can't get the gas to the pumps. If J6P can't get his tank filled, he's going to be upset about it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 23 Sep 2009, 22:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '
')Honestly, it makes no difference why we can't get the gas to the pumps. If J6P can't get his tank filled, he's going to be upset about it.


It just seems where there is a bump up in demand, investment will follow, and the rust problem will resolve itself before the zombies take to the streets. Ultimately I am much more concerned about geology than investment.
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby Nefarious » Wed 23 Sep 2009, 22:41:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')It just seems where there is a bump up in demand, investment will follow, and the rust problem will resolve itself before the zombies take to the streets. Ultimately I am much more concerned about geology than investment.


In theory yes but in reality no.
This is my profession since 1990 addressing rust in the offshore oilfield environment. We were behind then, we are behind now, and we will be behind in the future.
It is IMPOSSIBLE to catch up!!
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 24 Sep 2009, 09:10:54

nefarious; just curious

can you give us any more details on what you've been doing?
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 24 Sep 2009, 09:35:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '
')Honestly, it makes no difference why we can't get the gas to the pumps. If J6P can't get his tank filled, he's going to be upset about it.


It just seems where there is a bump up in demand, investment will follow, and the rust problem will resolve itself before the zombies take to the streets. Ultimately I am much more concerned about geology than investment.

If we're taking a 3-6% per year depletion rate net of new fields, and the fact that "rust problem" has a time lag issue in solving, it seems apparent that BOTH are a problem.

Also consider that as geology and "rust" become major issues, the benefits to radicals of destroying or damaging Ras Tanura grow... because if you are close to a tipping poing of a collapse they might harder to push one the system is teetering. Iran and AQ are BOTH candidates for destroying Ras Tanura in the future.

I also sure hope AQ never gets the idea of using drug smuggling boats to try & take out an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico, too. I like $2.30 gas.

I wonder if the recent re-establishment (in 2008) of the US Navy Fourth Fleet for the Latin American region somewhat relates to security threats relating to oil fields at Gulf of Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby Nefarious » Thu 24 Sep 2009, 20:06:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'n')efarious; just curious

can you give us any more details on what you've been doing?


I work for one of the largest if not the largest abrasive blasting and coatings company that caters solely to the offshore oil industry in the GoM.
When you erect a steel platform in a salt water environment,you are placing it in one of the worse possible environments for it's longevity.
With a perfect coating on the steel you have about a 7 year coating life, before the coatings have broken down enough to no longer provide sufficient protection from corrosion.On average you get a 4 to 5 year coating protection, then you have to go back and blast and re-coat again.
Two years ago we were at our yearly review with one of our largest customers. They surveyed their platforms and came up with a figure of 10 million square feet of structure and piping that needed to be addressed (blasted and coated). Us and the other contract companies that are addressing it are averaging around 900,000 square feet a year. That means we can get right under half of that 10 million square feet done before we would have to start over at the beginning again.Not to mention that, that 10 million square feet is not a static number each year that number grows because rust grows and in the salt water environment it grows fast.
You also have to take into consideration that corrosion control is a cost overhead and it is very expensive to do on offshore production platforms. Some companies will hold off maintenance in structural integrity until it becomes a serious problem and MMS steps in and starts fining them until it gets addressed. In some severe cases MMS will shut the platform in if there is serious corrosion on production piping that might lead to a release and environmental damage until it is repaired. (Although that is very rare, they usually start to do something when the fines start adding up)
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
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Re: Peak oil expected in 2009: Reuters

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 27 Sep 2009, 21:25:57

nefarious; WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

++++++ for Matt Simmons
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