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THE Collapse of the US Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby CarnbY » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 11:24:04

I agree that China as the sole superpower would be a bad thing, just as the US as the only superpower is a bad thing. What we need is a balance of power. Judging by humanity's track record I doubt we'll ever see equality on a grand scale though. The ones in power will do what's necessary to stay in power, and the less fortunate will do what they can to turn it around, only to adapt the role of oppressor if they are succesful :cry:
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby entropyfails » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 11:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
There have been a number of new political systems developed in recent history, including democracy and communism. Anarchy has a well-developed political theory, even though it hasn't been put to practice in any country yet. But I wouldn't discount it as entirely impossible just because it never happened before.



That statement has no truth to it. The spanish tried anarchism in 1936 and did fairly well with it... until capitalistic and communistic forces joined up and killed them.

http://flag.blackened.net/revolt/spaindx.html

And for millions of years before civilization, humans lived without governments as we know them. Honestly, anarchism has a longer history than any other form of government. We just call it "tribalism" when it is over 10,000 years old and "a mistake" when referring to the Spanish revolution. *grin*
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Unread postby Ebyss » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 11:29:04

In all fairness, if China attempted a World War the way you're suggesting, everyone would be against them. Everyone. China's army may be enormous, but they have to come get us all without oil. There's just no way China could invade and conquer the US without oil. Even with oil they'd stand a slim-to-none chance. America would just nuke them to high heaven before it let itself be invaded.

I agree that China as a world leader isn't exactly desirable, but I don't think it'll be as simple as them just deciding to take over, and the world falling at their feet. China may have 1.3 billion people, but the rest of the world has the other 5.2 billion.

And as previously mentioned, China's current industrial (read = oil based) growth is entirely dependent on the rest of the world buying their sh!t. When no one can afford to buy anything from them, there'll be no money going in. Having said all that, China will probably fare quite well if THSTF, they are used to having very little of anything, particularly oil.
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Unread postby NeoPeasant » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 11:36:58

Peak Oil will make transcontinental expeditionary warfare pretty impractical. If new empires are built, they will not cross continental boundaries. I expect the US sphere of military influence will eventually shrink back to the western hemisphere and maybe just North America. No one is going to cross the oceans to take territory by force. They just won't have the gas to do it.
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Unread postby BastardSquad » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 12:01:31

I'm going to have to agree with Ebyss on this one.

As an American,I can say that I'm less than happy with most of the decisions made by American politicians over the last 50 years or so,never the less,I can't imagine they'd ever let us be invaded by China.


If China ever tried to invade us,oil or no oil,we would completly obliterate them.We have enough nukes to burn their country from one end to the other 10 times over.

The Soviet Union fell apart but I don't see anyone invading them.You know why?Because they still have plenty of nukes.Just because the Russian economy is in the toilet doesn't mean they can still push "the button" if they had to.

We would stomp Chinas ass if they ever dared setting foot on U.S. soil!

The only exception would be if there were some kind of conspiracy in which our great leaders wanted us to be invaded from some crazy reason.
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Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 12:11:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'P')eak Oil will make transcontinental expeditionary warfare pretty impractical. If new empires are built, they will not cross continental boundaries. I expect the US sphere of military influence will eventually shrink back to the western hemisphere and maybe just North America. No one is going to cross the oceans to take territory by force. They just won't have the gas to do it.


I can't agree with this statement. Hegemony, adventurism and Empire building have existed for as long as man. Britain maintained a world wide empire for centuries without oil. Rome ruled most of Europe and the Mediterranean without oil.

The world is going to expand again as transportation becomes more costly but there will still be mobility and there will still be human ambition.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 12:40:08

Imagine this:

The whole global capitalist system falls, lots of people die off, local subsistance farming reigns etc... Then 50 years later people on the coast look out to sea and they see thousands of angry looking chinese on a large fleet of sailing ships with bows and arrows........ 8O :-D
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Unread postby julianj » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 13:20:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Linlithgowoil
3. china has always harboured a desire for a massive empire - everyone knows this - this might be their chance.


Can you provide any evidence for this statement?

The depleting of oil means the dimininution of all these imperial fantasies. There will be no Chinese empire.
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby jaakkeli » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 13:44:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'W')as just thinking - a lot of people on here seem to be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the amercian empire ending. Problem is, china and the communists would replace them - militarily and economically.


Rrrriight. What the hell is it with you English peopl... oops, no, all you people who serve the English? :evil: The mere thought that some English-speaking country might not be the world's most powerful military is like the end of the world or something. IF WE'RE NOT NUMBER 1, CHINA'S GOING TO COME AND KILL EVERYONE!!! Oh, right. Why? Why on earth would China care? They care about the territory that they consider theirs, which puts them into conflict with a few Asian countries and Russia - and, frankly, any enemy of Russia is good in my eyes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wonder if you'd all be pretty happy to see the red flag of china flying in washington and mass murders of americans to clear space for all the chinese?


It's only going to happen if the Americans do their part in starting the conflict. And no, if they pick a fight with the Chinese and lose, I don't really care.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd lets just forget all the pie in the sky pipe dream stuff of people all living in wonderful middle earth type towns with no central control. Wont happen. There will always be some form of 'leader' or control over people - always has been in history, and always will be.


Sure. I just don't get where you came up with this scenario where some English-speaking country simply must be a superpower or else every country in the world suddenly loses "central control". Would you please explain why we'd suddenly lose our leaders, if the US fails?
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Unread postby Clouseau2 » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 14:07:42

The more I think about it, the more it seems like China is much more doomed than the United States.

China has about the same land area as the United States but has to support 4 times the population.

They have used their country as a toxic waste dump, and they also have major desertification issues. We have taken better care of our country with environmental regulations, and we have more domestic oil production and the tar sands in Canada next door.

China is set to become a massive importer of food in the next few years as their grain harvests are plummeting.
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 17:54:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'I') wonder if you'd all be pretty happy to see the red flag of china flying in washington and mass murders of americans to clear space for all the chinese?
Yea, we the natives of North America, will stand up and fight against a force four times as large!

The original Americans were mass-murdered. The only difference is you were on the "right" side that time.

(Anybody see the cool T-shirt being sold by Funny Times, with some native americans in traditional clothing, carrying rifles, and the legend: "Homeland Security: Fighting Terrorism Since 1492")

<i><b>Dateline: April 15, 2020:</b> President Jenna Bush announces foreign terrorist cells have been located near the Edmonton oil fields, and offers "assistance" to Canada in the form of 150,000 US troops, now massing along the border.</i>
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 18:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'P')roblem is, china and the communists would replace them - militarily and economically.


There is absolutely no way that China could invade and hold the United States. Never happen. The only way that occupation happens is that the population conceeds to your rule or you systematically one at a time kill off the population. This is the lesson of Vietnam, Afganistan, Iraq, etc.

If the US with a much better armed military can't even invade and hold tiny Vietnam, why do you think that China could hold the continental United States? Racism is strong in this country and the people are heavily armed. There is no way they would tolerate being ruled by Asian invaders. Didn't you ever see Red Dawn? :-D
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 18:46:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'P')roblem is, china and the communists would replace them - militarily and economically.
The only way that occupation happens is that the population conceeds to your rule or you systematically one at a time kill off the population.
Or if the population sells themselves into slavery. The balance of trade is pretty bad, and China is holding tons of dollars.

What do you think they're doing that for? To be nice, because out of the pureness of their heart, they want Americans to have as much cheap plastic crap as they can get?

No, we'll start to see that money invested soon. The US economic bubble bursts over escalating energy prices, the dollar crashes, and the only thing worth anything in dollars any more is real estate. Then China will have enough to simply <b>purchase</b> the United States.

So remember, every time you go to Wall Mart and buy something that says "Made in China", you're voluntarily conceding to Chinese rule!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ')Didn't you ever see Red Dawn? :-D
Oh yes, I'm sorry. If it was in some movie, then that definitely proves your point! :-)
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 18:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'S')o remember, every time you go to Wall Mart and buy something that says "Made in China", you're voluntarily conceding to Chinese rule!


I think you are over dramatising the permenance of property rights. Having a slip of paper certifying your claim to a piece of land, and having the power to occupy and control it are entirely different things.
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:10:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'H')aving a slip of paper certifying your claim to a piece of land, and having the power to occupy and control it are entirely different things.
So you approve of reneging on your obligations? You enter into debt freely, then refuse to accept the consequences? You live high on the hog on someone else's resources, then declare bankruptcy when the bill is due?

Remind me never to do business with you!
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:23:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'N')o, we'll start to see that money invested soon. The US economic bubble bursts over escalating energy prices, the dollar crashes, and the only thing worth anything in dollars any more is real estate. Then China will have enough to simply <b>purchase</b> the United States.


:?

I don't get your statement. If the "US economy bursts" and the "dollar crashes", then those holding the USD are screwed and that includes the Chinese. Remember scenes from the Weimar Republic? A wheel barrel was needed to carry the paper to buy a loaf of bread. If China holds $100 in notes then they get paid back in USD which are then worth .0025 of their current value. No problem. :-D

We heard talk like this about the Japanese. In fact, Japan invested heavily in US real estate; they even bought Rockefeller Center in NYC. They lost their shirts on those investments.
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Re: If America collapses - we're all buggered

Unread postby Bytesmiths » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:28:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'N')o, we'll start to see that money invested soon. The US economic bubble bursts over escalating energy prices, the dollar crashes, and the only thing worth anything in dollars any more is real estate. Then China will have enough to simply <b>purchase</b> the United States.
If the "US economy bursts" and the "dollar crashes", then those holding the USD are screwed and that includes the Chinese.
But if things of real value are priced in dollars -- like real estate -- then those holding dollars can come scoop them up.

I'm not claiming its their strategy, but it is *a* strategy for peaceful take-over. How about midwest farmland for $100 an acre, when you've got trillions of dollars that aren't worth anything elsewhere?
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Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:36:39

Bytesmith,

To me the dollar "crashing" spells hyperinflation, hence my statement about it's value being near to worthless. In addition a country can just not pay its debt. What are the creditors going to do? Invade? I don't think that is a practical way to collect on a debt.

What would happen is what we see happen in countries such as Argentina.
Lot's of trouble, no doubt. They suffer locally and their credit rating with other countries is ruined but nobody goes over and seizes their property.

Besides, we wouldn't let them. :twisted:
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 19:53:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'B')esides, we wouldn't let them. :twisted:
Boy, them Mercans shore think they're hot!

What happens when the oil runs out? What happens when the bullets run out? What happens if you have a quiet, legal, slow invasion? Many places are already over 50% economically oppressed minorities. Do you think they will side with their yuppie brethren should it come to "which side are you on?"

I think Mercans are 99% bluster. All they really want is a Job. It won't matter if it's Boss Tweed, or some Chinese businessman, as long as it's a Job. Mercans will desecrate their air, water, and food for a Job. Mercans will tear up the last remaining wilderness for a Job. Mercans will go kill innocent foreigners for a Job. The shure as hell won't defend their neighbor's property against a foreign bank foreclosure -- in fact, when the Chinese (or whomever) take over, it will be Mercans doing their bidding.

"You have to leave your house now, ma'am. Sorry, I'm just doing my Job."
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