[Buggy]

I don't understand. I thought government spending and corporate bonuses were going to save us????

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'I') don't understand. I thought government spending and corporate bonuses were going to save us????

[NoWorries]

Not saying the economy isn't in a shambles -- But if I had a dollar for every time Denninger said that economic collapse is "dead ahead", I'd have quite a little pile.

PS--When I saw the thread title I immediately thought it was another post/link to Denninger. Now That's predictable!

[TheAntiDoomer]

Wow, someone (Denninger) is awfully sure (full?) of himself. This will be a fun thread to revisit in the future.

and agree with the above post, if I had a nickel for every denninger doom prediction........I think the guy just has a unknown grudge or something.

[AlexdeLarge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'N')ot saying the economy isn't in a shambles -- But if I had a dollar for every time Denninger said that economic collapse is "dead ahead

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'N')ot saying the economy isn't in a shambles -- But if I had a dollar for every time Denninger said that economic collapse is "dead ahead

[heroineworshipper]

They said the same thing in the 80's when U were only $4,000,000,000,000 in the hole. They managed to triple your debt easily.

[Daphne64]

I read Denninger's blog. He has quite a few good scoops and some good insights. His math skills are terrible, though, and his arguments against the tried-and-tried-again government method of printing money until hyperinflation hits are just plain ridiculous.

He seems to think the US government will stop spending when it can't borrow money anymore. When has that EVER happened with a fiat currency? On the other hand, hyperinflations are very, very common.

Both he and Mish have been very quiet on the recent rise in gold and silver prices and the dive in the dollar.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daphne64', 'I') read Denninger's blog. He has quite a few good scoops and some good insights. His math skills are terrible, though, and his arguments against the tried-and-tried-again government method of printing money until hyperinflation hits are just plain ridiculous.

He seems to think the US government will stop spending when it can't borrow money anymore. When has that EVER happened with a fiat currency? On the other hand, hyperinflations are very, very common.

Both he and Mish have been very quiet on the recent rise in gold and silver prices and the dive in the dollar.

[Daphne64]

I agree hyperinflation is not a foregone conclusion. The US government could achieve it's goals with 15-25% annual inflation.

The goals being -

Make medicare benefits so low that no doctors will take them, thus reducing expenditures - possibly in nominal terms, certainly in real terms.

Boost housing prices so that fewer homes go into foreclosure and the toxic MBS become less toxic. (Of course they will lose value due the interest rate discounting).

And the printed money will just be necessary to pay the bills!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daphne64', 'I') agree hyperinflation is not a foregone conclusion. The US government could achieve it's goals with 15-25% annual inflation.

...

And the printed money will just be necessary to pay the bills!

[cipi604]

Still nobody talks about the impact of PEAK-OIL with reality and 'business as usual'. Even more than that, almost everyone compares the past with what's about to happen.

[AlexdeLarge]

Karl responds to the interest to his "Deflationary Collapse" Post........

More On My "Deflationary Collapse" Ticker
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1442-More-On-My-Deflationary-Collapse-Ticker.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, I hate people telling me they think I'm being unrealistically "doom and gloomish", so I "de-theoreticalized" that chart a bit, and picked on more-recent times where the growth rates were pretty darn good and some of the really-expansive debt periods, particularly from the 70s, were not included.

Here are the ugly facts - not conjecture, not assumptions, not going back 50 years data, current and unassailable facts.

[efarmer]

Peak Oil, peak and gating resources, and the economic conditions
we are all observing including Mr. Denninger, are all about one large
and overarching human tendency. Living beyond our means in multiple
directions at once.

When the resources are plentiful but money is scarce or constrained,
(depression, wars, deciding to build suburbia and hook the nation
together with easy motoring infrastructure) the money can go out
ahead of the applied resources and all is well.

IMHO we just don't seem to think that living within our means is really
the part of any solution on a national or international basis. Perhaps it
is because most of our role models of success gambled long and won
big in the present system of spending and counting on the resources
to manifest and make it all good.

Watching Mr. Geithner squirm and obsfucate on CSPAN this week
when asked how much toxic debt there was, drove it home that they
either know and won't tell, or don't have a clue and won't admit it.

Not defining our means and liabilities allows us the exquisite luxury
of pretending they don't exist, for awhile longer.

I suppose we are ready for www.peakmeans.com in addition to this
excellent forum.

[AirlinePilot]

Denninger has made some calls over the last few years. Unfortunately he has almost exclusively called it right Along with Schiff, Roubini,Taleb, Shedlock etc.

Choose to disregard this analysis at your own peril. I've done a lot of research into Denningers math and really he isn't wrong. The only thing he may get a bit incorrect is the magnitude and the timing. Long term i believe he is correct and his calls are more about waking folks up to the rape of our money and a call to action. His stuff is read by most as Tin but I believe he is going to be looked back on as being very correct about what happens.

I think there is still room for us to go down either path, be it deflation, or inflation, there are still things which point to either one being plausible.

Denninger's math right now is I believe unassailable. He has it nailed. I plan on following this guys calls and advice. His track record on a lot of other things has been clairvoyant for over two years now.

What I see here and many other places is analysis based on traditional outcomes and economic/financial environments. Karl's take is not based on that and rightly so. We are in uncharted waters. We are seeing the remaking/remodeling of our banking and monetary system undergoing massive change and implosion right in front of our faces. The further loss in valuations of just about every category of financial instruments will be nothing short of devastating. The reset of capitalism which is needed every twenty years or so is being desperately and incorrectly fought right now. Instead of allowing the reset to happen allowing debt to be cleared we are putting it off with ridiculous amounts of more debt. We are doing it fiercely and doing it globally. That cannot be sustained.

As Karl rightly puts it, we are past the event horizon and either way the end result will be bad. There is no soft landing coming, it will be all bad no matter how this plays out. The longer we wait and fight it, in some false hope of positive moves which will not come, the bigger the crash becomes on the other side. The time is now to expose the banks, the ponzii scheme that is government and monetary policy, and the nonsense that "green shoots" and sentiment can change the new pardigm that we are in.

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')enninger's math right now is I believe unassailable. He has it nailed. I plan on following this guys calls and advice. His track record on a lot of other things has been clairvoyant for over two years now.

[AirlinePilot]

Denningers advice and calls have made me a tidy sum of money already. Ill trust him far more than the cornucopian dolts here and the pumpers on CNBC and the MSM any day.

I cannot argue with the voice of reason backed by objective and realistic analysis of available data.

[Daphne64]

When I said his math is terrible I based it on recent examples:

1) He talks about debt going parabolic, when exponential is the right word.

2) He made a comparison of GDP and spending over time and didn't notice that one figure was per capita and the other wasn't.

3) He talked about debt increasing more as a % of a baseline point, and GDP increasing from a baseline point, and said since the debt had increased much more that we are doomed. He didn't seem to notice that the initial debt to GDP ratio is material.

4) His graphs are just awful - he doesn't know how to put years in the x-axis, for example, or use legends that explain what the y-axis is.

I agree with him on the collapse part, but not the deflationary collapse. He isn't able to give any examples of a deflationary collapse, because there are none, not on a fiat system anyway. Look to examples of inflationary collapse, then multiply by 10 since the US will take down much of the world.

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'D')enningers advice and calls have made me a tidy sum of money already. Ill trust him far more than the cornucopian dolts here and the pumpers on CNBC and the MSM any day.

I cannot argue with the voice of reason backed by objective and realistic analysis of available data.

[NoWorries]

Ok. But my point remains that he has been saying the same thing for a long time, and it hasn't happened yet.

WHEN?