by DantesPeak » Tue 08 Sep 2009, 22:38:06
That's old news. Petrobras is finding more gas and less oil than they originally thought.
Basically at the initial Tupi well, they are flaring off most of the gas to get the oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')latts Oilgram News
July 9, 2009
Pre-salt Santos well off Brazil seems a bust
Hess also said it will expense the well cost in its second quarter earnings, which to Leite provides further evidence that Guarani is a dry hole. Leite, in a July 8 report, said the well was spudded in March, reached a total depth around 5,404 meters and took 118 days to drill.
Leite said Guarani, drilled on the giant Tupi sub-salt cluster, "reinforces our view that...pre-salt exploration blocks are not 'winning lottery tickets,' as suggested by Petrobras in the early stages of the regulatory discussions on the pre-salt."
The fact that the well was not a discovery also suggests "the larger potential of the pre-salt lies in the northern part of Tupi cluster" rather than the southern section where Guarani was drilled, he said.
Meanwhile, Leite said he believes Seadrill's West Polaris drillship that drilled Guarani will be sublet to Petrobras to explore elsewhere on the Tupi structure.
"Recent news suggests the rig could stay with Petrobras until year-end 2010," he said. "Therefore, we would not expect definitive news on the BM-S-22 before 2011...we see this postponement as a sign of the consortium's lower confidence in the block."
Leite said BM-S-22 was an especially prized block in the Tupi cluster that Petrobras discovered in November 2007 and which quickly became one of the world's most-heralded new oil finds. At the time, the Brazilian company estimated the Tupi structure at recoverable reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
But BM-S-22 always carried risks, as Leite outlined in a report last month. Azulao was "somewhat disappointing," he said, despite two oil find notifications sent to ANP in January and February.
And apparently there was "significantly lower" carbon dioxide in Guarani than in the previous successful pre-salt wells, "which would indicate lower oil volumes," said Leite. Also, oil-water contact was evidently found, an undesirable result that "would essentially eliminate the chances of substantially more oil in deeper horizons," he added.
The analyst said he does not question the "huge potential" of the pre-salt play, but rather noting "risks do exist and that expectations on the overall story need to be moderated somewhat."
Credit Suisse had estimated 5 billion boe of resource for BM-S-22 alone, but Leite now says that will need to be "revised downwards significantly, as will (probably) our 36 billion boe estimate for the Tupi cluster as a whole."
http://www.mcgraw-hill.com
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.