US Air Force:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')/10/2009 - HANSCOM AIR FORCE BASE, Mass. (AFNS) — The convergence of “exponentially advancing technologies” will form a “super-intelligence” so formidable that it could avert war, according to one of the world’s leading futurists.
Dr. James Canton, CEO and chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a San Francisco-based think tank, is author of the book “The Extreme Future” and an adviser to leading companies, the military and other government agencies. He is consistently listed among the world’s leading speakers and has presented to diverse audiences around the globe.
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Air Force: "AdvanceTechnology Convergence Could Prevent War"
Air Force: "AdvanceTechnology Convergence Could Prevent War"
by Carlhole » Fri 04 Sep 2009, 18:06:16
Canton seems familiar with the Singularity concept and views the US as rushing towards an unchallenged status:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]“The superiority of convergent technologies will prevent war,” Doctor Canton said, claiming their power would present an overwhelming deterrent to potential adversaries. While saying that the U.S. will build these super systems faster and better than other nations, he acknowledged that a new arms race is already under way.
I'm reading Wired For War right now, a book about AI and robotics on the battlefield. The military accounts for about half of the total R&D for a variety of projects ranging from insect-like spy drones to Hummers that drive themselves to pilotless drones. Many of the projects are in a nascent stage, but they already have incredible capabilities. The drones have been very successful over Iraq and Afghanistan.
Eventually, The Air Force would even like to develop pilotless fighter aircraft so they don't have to worry about accommodating that blob of delicate jelly sitting up front anymore.
I'm glad to see that I have the Air Force is on the machine-intelligence side of the debate!
The US military could eventually create a superintelligence, but it will be a different beast than the billions of humans that came before it. A superintelligence is something fundamentally new. A superintelligence can hold bigger ideas in its brain than you can. Human working memory can only hold 5-7 items at once, a superintelligence’s working memory might be able to hold millions of complex symbols simultaneously. It would be like comparing a man with a shovel to one of today's earth-movers.
Who knows what the Air Force or DARPA has going on under its blacked-out projects?
- Carlhole
Re: Air Force: "AdvanceTechnology Convergence Could Prevent War"
by Kristen » Fri 04 Sep 2009, 23:20:14
Although I like your optimism, you need to be more specific as to how much a human can remember. 5-7 items for about 8 seconds, without rehearsal.
Also this would we even be able to understand such super intelligence?
Also this would we even be able to understand such super intelligence?
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Re: Air Force: "AdvanceTechnology Convergence Could Prevent War"
by dinopello » Fri 04 Sep 2009, 23:55:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', ' ')A superintelligence can hold bigger ideas in its brain than you can. Human working memory can only hold 5-7 items at once, a superintelligence’s working memory might be able to hold millions of complex symbols simultaneously.
The Magic Number 7 plus or minus 2
I'm skeptical that this characteristic will be overcome in any significant way. I believe it is somewhat related to a fundamental characteristic of complexity and to the ability of learning (forming models) by induction. The decomposition of complex problems, or chunking is required because enough evidence is rarely available to support the formation of valid models of high dimensionality, so humans form these lower dimensionality groupings which are then combined. Many of the successful AI techniques mimic this type of composition.
This paper by the Barron's, although 20 years old now, is a pretty good overview of empirical techniques in use for machine-based learning (PDF).
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Re: Air Force: "AdvanceTechnology Convergence Could Prevent War"
by Carlhole » Sat 05 Sep 2009, 00:51:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', ' ')A superintelligence can hold bigger ideas in its brain than you can. Human working memory can only hold 5-7 items at once, a superintelligence’s working memory might be able to hold millions of complex symbols simultaneously.
I'm skeptical that this characteristic will be overcome in any significant way.
I find The Blue Brain Project (non-military) to be the most fascinating one so far because it is developing a model which other researchers can continually build upon. It will incorporate EVERYTHING that is known about neuroscience to date. The computational requirements to do this study are absolutely mind-blowing.
I saw another article today about it.
Human Brain Could Be Replicated In 10 Years, Researcher Predicts
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oday's technology is already highly sophisticated and it allows us to reverse engineer the brain rapidly." An example of the capability already in place is that today's robots can do screenings and mappings tens of thousands of times faster than human scientists and technicians.
Another hurdle on the path to a model human brain is that 100 years of neuroscience discovery has led to millions of fragments of data and knowledge that have never been brought together and exploited fully. "Actually no one even knows what we already understand about the brain," says Professor Markram. "A model would serve to bring this all together and then allow anyone to test whatever theory you want about the brain.
Advanced AI is going to get away from the limitations of serial-processed software and move towards vastly parallel systems which are copied from the information processing designs that Nature has already produced.
No one can convince me that it is impossible for scientists to study and learn about the biology of neurons and the information-processing patterns of various life forms. I mean, if thousands of inexpensive drones flying over Afghanistan and Iraq were as independent as even a dragonfly, that would be a butt-kicking weapon.
There are a bunch of these projects going on all over the world now. Here's another:
Building a Brain on a Silicon Chip
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ACETS has been tapping into the same databases. "But rather than simulating neurons," says Karlheinz, "we are building them." Using a standard eight-inch silicon wafer, the researchers recreate the neurons and synapses as circuits of transistors and capacitors, designed to produce the same sort of electrical activity as their biological counterparts.
