[coyote]

It's nice to have you around again, Dantes.

I don't pay much attention to what Yergin says since reading his famous mischaracterization of peak oil as "not the first time the world has been running out of oil." He knows better than to paint the theory that way, which makes me wonder what kind of axe he's got to grind. IIRC, though, he does have a tendency to come out with these little statements at the beginnings of bull runs.

[dissident]

Yergin and his secret data are totally worthless. I would like to see an independent analysis of the data he supposedly has. Yergin's claims disagree with those of the IEA (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... energy-iea).

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I')t's nice to have you around again, Dantes.

I don't pay much attention to what Yergin says since reading his famous mischaracterization of peak oil as "not the first time the world has been running out of oil." He knows better than to paint the theory that way, which makes me wonder what kind of axe he's got to grind. IIRC, though, he does have a tendency to come out with these little statements at the beginnings of bull runs.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')i]"My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030." --Yergin

--------

That seems very pessimistic to me. Hybrids are very popular and the technology works. If oil prices go higher I would think hybrids and electric vehicles should be 25-75% or more of the market by another 10 years or so.

[Roy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', ' ')And then who can spend the $1000's on replacing the battery every couple of years.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')i]"My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030." --Yergin

--------

That seems very pessimistic to me. Hybrids are very popular and the technology works. If oil prices go higher I would think hybrids and electric vehicles should be 25-75% or more of the market by another 10 years or so.

[ian807]

The concept that technology will save us is not a new one.

The thing about technology though. It doesn't happen on schedule. It doesn't care about the economy, or politicians, or wars. It happens when it happens.

There are no guarantees that we'll get battery power that matters in a timeframe that matters. Yeah, hybrids work, but as other folks have correctly pointed out, these hybrids depend on rare earths like lithium. None of these materials is in infinite supply either.

Unless we can develop a much more efficient battery made of common, cheap materials like iron, aluminum or carbon, we just have another temporary patch.

So unless there's a radical breakthrough (possible), ubiquitous personal car ownership ends this century. Ethanol is barely energy positive. Oil won't be by the end of the century. NG might still be around in some form as biogas. Algae oil too, perhaps. Neither is going to come close to replacing our current volume of energy provided by oil.

[MD]

"Advanced biofuels" eh?

That doesn't sound much like a plethora of cheap sweet light ready for fresh tap, to me.

[emersonbiggins]

Time to brush the dust off an old goodie:



A contrarian indicator if I ever saw one.

Clearly, Yergin's article is bullish for oil.

[JohnDenver]

Shouldn't this be merged into the Yergin thread?
THE Daniel Yergin Thread (merged)

[emersonbiggins]

Normally yes, but this guy fell off the face of the planet early last year. The fact that he is back beating the drum is, in and of itself, a noteworthy event. (not to mention that his handlers' checks are clearing the bank once again)

Don't fret - it will get the merge eventually, though.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')ime to brush the dust off an old goodie:



A contrarian indicator if I ever saw one.

Clearly, Yergin's article is bullish for oil.

[emersonbiggins]

No doubt bad calls were made on both sides, JD. The difference is that Yergin was consistently wrong for years prior to the collapse, in addition to being wrong about the collapse itself. The sudden collapse in prices was a mulligan on all sides, as your graphs well point out.

[dissident]

Attacking Simmons for his predictions is really rich. I guess Simmons failed to predict the September 2008 financial crash and the current recession so that means that he knows nothing about oil production. The current oil price is a low transient associated with recession. When the economy starts to recover it will start going up from $70. So $140 and higher is not excluded. Yergin gets the sign wrong systematically so he has no excuses like Simmons (i.e. recession).

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'A')ttacking Simmons for his predictions is really rich. I guess Simmons failed to predict the September 2008 financial crash and the current recession so that means that he knows nothing about oil production.

[TheDude]

Here's another one of my doctored graphs:



From CERA's Not Running Out Just Yet, from Feb 2007; basically the same graph from Nov '06's Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down -- Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources, discussed at TOD: The Oil Drum | Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down ?

Looks like they were still using 2005 data, or the baseline for forecasts looks to be set at 2005, anyway. Something like 103 mb/d for 2009 in their Reference Case. Daaaaammmmnnnn. In Reference to what? Khebab said in the notes for the Business As Usual graph in The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ERA forecasts for conventional oil (Crude Oil + Condensate?) and all liquids, believed to be productive capacities (i.e. actual production + spare capacity). The numbers have been derived from Figure 1 in Dave's response to CERA.

[mefistofeles]

Yergin never said how we going to get the oil. Sure there's plenty of oil,it's just that it's not going to be economically viable to produce.

[efarmer]

Dante, Biggins, Dude,Pstarr, Denver: good to see you on one thread together!

Yergin like so many who do art or science for benefactors, ends up painting the wealthy benefactors portrait, sooner or later. I think I recognize the style,
it is Impressionist.