Concerned but not alarmed

by **smiley** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 16:01:48

That is the title of the latest IEA oil market report released today.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf

While the report itself is not that interesting (Mainly the same overinflated expectations as usual.) there are some unusually frank statements about Iran.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ranian supply is estimated up by 40 kb/d in March to 3.9 mb/d. February supply was revised down by 115 kb/d to 3.86 mb/d as consolidated export data came in lower than expected. Inauguration of expanded output facilities at the Soroush and Nowruz heavy oilfields, repeatedly delayed over the course of 2004, now appears to have been deferred again to summer 2005 due to equipment problems. There have been reports that these and other imminent capacity ‘expansion’ projects may in fact only offset mature field decline, holding Iranian capacity close to 4.0 mb/d for the time being.

by **RonMN** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 16:29:24

WOW, those numbers show a MONTHLY decline of 600,000 - 800,000 BPD. That seems rather steep!

Please somebody correct my math if i'm wrong here...but if that decline rate holds steady, wouldn't Iran be out of oil in 6 months???

by **RonMN** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 16:36:46

OOPS...it's a decline of 60,000 - 80,000 monthly...i had 1 too many zeros in the calculation. :oops:

my bad!

by **Colorado-Valley** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 16:41:10

That might be why they're trying to build nuclear power plants. Iran has 75 million people. They probably like electricity, too.

by **UIUCstudent01** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 16:55:13

Well, doesn't that put a perspective on things... where does Iran's oil go to mostly? Attacking Iran seems really foolish right now - especially since nuclear power plants might actually be a good idea... you want to keep the oil-producing countries stable.

Unless of course Bush and Co. have adapted a die-off mentality...

by **nero** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 20:14:57

Great pickup smiley, where else do you go for your oil industry intelligence? You seem to keep a close eye on things.

by **RonMN** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 21:48:14

I just don't see war with iran right now!

It just ain't gonna happen (on too many levels).

by **OilyMon** » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 22:35:07

Who has oficially peaked?

Saudia Arabia? Check.
Iran? Check.
Iraq? Who knows? Bush :-)

It all seems to be coming together.

Has anybody seen that comparison between the new Pope and The emperor in Star Wars?

by **savethehumans** » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 00:18:28

I just love that "due to technical problems" reason for lower production!

--not pumping all out so what you have left lasts longer
--missiles and suicide bombers
--it's almost all sour crude
--keep 'em guessing, so they'll keep kowtowing to you

Yep. Those technically are problems, all right!! :roll:

by **cube** » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 15:20:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilyMon', 'W')ho has oficially peaked?

Saudia Arabia? Check.
Iran? Check.
Iraq? Who knows? Bush :-)

....

by **OilyMon** » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 17:19:47

I do use the term "officially" loosely. According to recent articles, including the one cited at the top of this post, Saudia Arabia admints they are pumping all out, and Iran's production levels seem to be falling. This was by no means a prediction, just an interpretation of the facts at hand. :-)

by **pea-jay** » Thu 28 Apr 2005, 01:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, doesn't that put a perspective on things... where does Iran's oil go to mostly? Attacking Iran seems really foolish right now - especially since nuclear power plants might actually be a good idea... you want to keep the oil-producing countries stable.

Concerned but not alarmed

Concerned but not alarmed

Wow.

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