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News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 26 Aug 2009, 20:49:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Check out your calender....its 2009 now. At ca. 5 million barrels per day, Ghawar has produced more then 15 billion barrels of oil since 1999 when you claim that the water cut peaked.


A) I did't claim anything, I simply provided the reference to show that water cut doesn't always go UP.
B) Ghawar is supposed to be EMPTY, so ALL oil coming from it right now, let alone the 5 mb/day you say it makes is nothing short of AMAZING and fits in perfectly with what Lynch claims
C) The local oil expert himself says that 35% isn't necessarily a big deal, and that maybe no relevance can be attached to whatever amount you think Ghawar is making today.

From back on Aug 16/2006. RockDoc doesn't appear particularly concerned.

http://peakoil.com/post346967.html?hili ... ut#p346967
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 26 Aug 2009, 22:11:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
A) ...water cut doesn't always go UP.
B) Ghawar is supposed to be EMPTY


A. Of course not. Older wells below the water/oil interface are turned off and new shallower wells may be drilled into the remaining but ever shrinking oil reservoir.

Your claim that the Ghawar water cut "peaked" in 1999 is ridiculous.

B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.

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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 26 Aug 2009, 22:40:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.


Again, its not like I'm original, I just read this stuff, and when it sniff tests, thats good enough to use as a reference.

Post #239

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/sea ... awar+empty
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 26 Aug 2009, 23:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.


I just read this stuff, and when it sniff tests, thats good enough to use as a reference.


You actually collected these ridiculous ideas? And now you are reposting them?

Wow. :roll:
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 00:28:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.


I just read this stuff, and when it sniff tests, thats good enough to use as a reference.


You actually collected these ridiculous ideas? And now you are reposting them?

Wow. :roll:


I would rather insult the idea than refute it as well, he does tend to document his information and ideas better than most, and this one, which involves basically just adding up the production and comparing it to past estimates, is certainly not complicated, and makes Lynchs point pretty well.

Smart move on your part, insult the messenger and hope no one notices that you can't refute the idea. [smilie=eusa_naughty.gif]
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 00:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.


Again, its not like I'm original, I just read this stuff, and when it sniff tests, thats good enough to use as a reference.

Post #239

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/sea ... awar+empty
You are quoting that hack site? Laughable :P


Considering the frequency of your responses when challenged to present a single iota of rebuttal to the NYT article, it strikes me that JD's hundreds and hundreds of ideas, concepts and explanations put your critique of anyone actually using information as irrelevant.
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby sjn » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 04:55:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')B. Your claim Ghawar "is supposed to be EMPTY" is also completely ridiculous.


Again, its not like I'm original, I just read this stuff, and when it sniff tests, thats good enough to use as a reference.

Post #239

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/sea ... awar+empty
You are quoting that hack site? Laughable :P


Considering the frequency of your responses when challenged to present a single iota of rebuttal to the NYT article, it strikes me that JD's hundreds and hundreds of ideas, concepts and explanations put your critique of anyone actually using information as irrelevant.

JD's "ideas, concepts and explanations" all fit into your preconceptions, or represent what you want to believe, you ignore data and evidence contradictory to your views. "JD" has an agenda, to "Debunk Peak Oil", it says so right in the title of his blog, do you expect to find unbiased information from somewhere with an angle to sell?
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 09:27:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')JD's "ideas, concepts and explanations" all fit into your preconceptions, or represent what you want to believe, you ignore data and evidence contradictory to your views.


Not in the least, and particularly not on the topic of what information is available for M. Lynch to write the article that he did. JD has compared cumulative production to past estimates of recoverable volumes in Ghawar and discovered that every single one of the millions of barrels being produced by that field are now barrels derived from reserve growth only...because otherwise...it would be empty.

Do you have evidence that JD's addition is incorrect? Because it makes one of Mike Lynchs points perfectly, and peakers ignoring it means that the I'm not the one ignoring contradictory evidence.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')"JD" has an agenda, to "Debunk Peak Oil", it says so right in the title of his blog, do you expect to find unbiased information from somewhere with an angle to sell?


I expect his information, if inaccurate, to be easily torn apart. So far, everyone has attacked his credibility, like Lynch, but so far no one has disputed his addition. And as long as his addition stands, so does the idea....that if it weren't for honest and actual reserve growth, of the type talked about by M. Lynch in the NYT article, Ghawar would be empty. It isn't. There fore, the idea has merit, and its size is 5 million barrels a day of production from past reserve growth.
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 10:28:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;If the Bush administration is not supposed to be interested in oil in Iraq, why are they so interested in it in Alaska?"


"BLOOD FOR NO OIL."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;For any oil company," one oil executive told the New York Times in February 2003, "being in Iraq is like being a kid in F.A.O. Schwarz."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n its periodic reports on Iraqi petroleum, the Department of Energy (DoE), for example, confidently reported in late 2002 that, with sufficient outside investment, Iraq could quickly double its production from the then-daily level of 2.5 million barrels to 5 million barrels or more.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;We can afford it," White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey said of the planned U.S. invasion, because rising Iraqi oil output would invigorate the U.S. economy. "When there is regime change in Iraq, you could add three to five million barrels [per day] of production to world supply," he told the Wall Street Journal in September 2002. Hence, "successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy." In one of the most striking comments of this sort, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told a congressional panel, "The oil revenue of [Iraq] could bring between 50 and 100 billion dollars over the course of the next two or three years. We're dealing with a country that could really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon."


So where is this 5 mbpd from the nation with the world's
2nd largest reserves? Instead of 1.8 million barrels for export.
(add in Kuwait if you like from slant/horizontal drilling of Rumaillah).
Three Million BBL's Per Day would be 6 Cantarells.
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 10:30:02

May 2005 Peak EROEI
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 27 Aug 2009, 14:15:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'M')ay 2005 Peak EROEI


Not if the recent "solar powered" oilfields become more common.

Just imagine....near infinite EROEI!! Mix some solar energy with some water and presto!! Oil springs out of the ground!

I wonder when Lynch will seize on this one to write another Op-Ed about, appropriately titled perhaps "Sky High EROEI...How to Make Oil From Solar Panels in 3 Easy Steps!"
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby energyhoggin » Fri 04 Sep 2009, 22:15:48

I'm starting to think peak oil is going to be news not in a decade but in decades from now, for one thing we will just have to adjust to high prices and get rid of trucks and cars the size of houses. It makes me laugh when i see a 150 pound man inside an 8000 pound dodge ram 3500. I don't see hybrids being the answer to the energy crisis either.Just think if everybody in the united states changed in their super size truck or car in for an average 350cc motorcycle that gets 75 mpg or more. All you have to do is look at how other countries deal with high gas prices such as Europe and etc. they drive very small cars or motorcycles. Another thing changing my mind about peak oil is that oil is not the only source of fossil fuel, there is also coal,natural gas, oil sands, and etc.which are all very abundant, relying just on oil is a catastrophy waiting to happen. When there is a will there will always be a way to develop these sources of energy in combination with oil. Instead of building nuclear plants to substitute oil build them to process oil sands or coal to liquification which takes a lot of energy to convert into oil.
Fact: There will be a limit to growth
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 05 Sep 2009, 01:11:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '&')quot;JD" has an agenda, to "Debunk Peak Oil", it says so right in the title of his blog, do you expect to find unbiased information from somewhere with an angle to sell?
Did you read the two sentences below the title? It's not to debunk peak oil, it's to debunk peak oil hype.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ebunking peak oil hype with facts and figures, and exposing the agendas behind peak oil.
DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby Maddog78 » Sat 05 Sep 2009, 23:16:37

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=2b55ff83-2764-482e-89bb-1e6c4eede3f3

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il and the minds of men
Peter Foster, Financial Post
Published: Saturday, September 05, 2009

The great petroleum geologist Wallace Pratt famously said that "Oil is found in the minds of men." Discoveries depend on visionary theory, technical innovation and commitment to risky drilling. Plus luck. Peak Oil theory, by contrast -which asserts that global oil production has, or soon will, peak, and that this has powerful policy implications -- is found in the limitations of the minds of men. It is less geological theory than unevolved intellectual shortcoming, although it certainly has its political uses.

The fruits of the "greatest resource," as economist Julian Simon dubbed the human mind, appeared yet again this week with the announcement by BP that it had found a "giant" field at unprecedented depth in the Gulf of Mexico, an area that twenty years ago was regarded as played out. By contrast, the limitations and conceits that characterize Peak Oil were nicely summed up by a report on BP's find in the leftist British newspaper, The Guardian.

According to that report, BP's Tiber well, and another recent huge find in Iran, "have encouraged skeptics of theories which say that peak production has been reached, or soon will be, to hail a new golden age of exploration and supply."

Note how the use of the term "skeptics" suggests that Peak Oil is the mainstream view, which it is not.

snip............................
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 06 Sep 2009, 07:07:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Maddog78', 'T')he great petroleum geologist Wallace Pratt famously said that "Oil is found in the minds of men."
So long as the cars to run it in their minds not the highways thats all ok. :mrgreen:

Even OF2s running totals for the year are coming very short of year on year replacement. No one said that peak oil would mean we stopped finding any oil, its just finding less and taking longer, costing more to bring into production topping out the maximum extraction rate.

Hell I am happy to state here I would not be suprised if one or two real big provinces are left to be uncovered. May be even in the 40 - 60 billion barrel range...... but as things stand the amount of new oil, the cost of it and the time it is taking to bring onstream is alot more real than whatever is found in the minds of men.
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Re: News Flash! Peak Oil has been canceled!

Unread postby sereze » Tue 29 Dec 2009, 04:36:47

80 dollars a barrel, world economy stumbling, oil market is very fragile and oil is supplied by number of countries . Well, if there is oil somewhere, get out and extract it for God's sake :)
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