by DantesPeak » Tue 25 Aug 2009, 11:39:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')his is something the extreme deflationists need to wake up to. The real price of energy is not dependent on the supply of credit but on the cost of marginal net energy. This can potentially be infinite if net energy growth is impossible (within the current infrastructural framework), meaning any available liquidity (central bank money injections) will eventually go directly towards increasing the price, pushing it up the curve to infinity. This doesn't mean downward moves are impossible,. and it is in nominal terms, it's bound to be volatile especially as classes of consumers are priced out together causing sudden drops in demand, but it does mean as time goes on less must be demanded, and this can only be achieved by higher prices in real terms. It also means the deflationists can be correct in general (printing money doesn't make things more affordable), but wrong in specificity (energy prices will rise), in particular those that advocate "liquidity injection/QE" as a remedy to deflation.
Well put. As I said many times before, the price of oil must rise in the long term vs. most everything else (except some other natural resources and food). The only time it will not rise is when there is a steep economic contraction. In the last year or so, demand has dropped faster than the supply drop. During these periods, oil could fall.
QE (quantitative easing - the Fed buying $1 trillion+ in mortgages and US treasuries) is about to create a new burst of inflation - and oil buying. This will increase demand past supplies agian.
Due to significant oil buffer stocks (allowing demand to move stealthily past supply), the price could rise very fast as demand once again exceeds (falling) supplies - and creating a new cycle of up and down prices.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.