[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')he leptokurtic function of the oil production/humanpop
growth curve indicates that after passing asymptote fat tail risk
of a non linear dragon king event increases exponentially.

[RobertRapier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', '2')008 had oil at $147 and had every producer selling all they could produce. The result was and is that even with the price sky high and all economic theory on their side, the result was less than 2005.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RobertRapier', '
')What I also think you forget is what accompanied all of these 2005 peak proclamations. People were talking about incredibly high decline rates, and forecasting sharply lower oil production following the peak. That of course has not happened, but some people's memories get fuzzy when their predictions don't come true.
RR

[newman1979]

"Fuzzy" being the understatement of the year, but kudo's for someone else noticing the obvious.[/quote]

I don't think that "wild decline" have been relied upon by most observers. Seriously, a small decline puts pressure on a growing or flat demand as pricing is always at the margin. We saw that occur in 2008. At present, a recession has changed the demand/ supply situation.
As production of crude as reported by the EIA has slowed by about 2 million barrels a day in 09, small movements in world supply/demand can cause significant price movements. If world production does not exceed 2005, demand will at some near point exceed supply. If oil production falls more, competition for oil will heat up faster. We will always have some oil, the question is the price.
Mexico's crude oil production is falling pretty fast as is Norway, The UK and the North Sea according to EIA data. History shows that these fields slow slowly at first and then speed up. This has happened to the US in the1970-75 time period. History also shows that exports by producing countries fall faster than production declines.
The facts are the facts, we deal with them. The issue is how do we we plan for the future, and what should we do now to protect the future.

[gollum]

Nothing is certain with the economy in such uproar, but it seems likely 2005 to 2008 was a plateau, with real decline setting in the next few years to be aggravated by lack of investment during the present recession. I'm a major doomer but would love to be proven wrong as a future retirement consisting of trips to Vegas will be a lot More fun that tending the garden and the chickens

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'q')uote="sos"]"Fuzzy" being the understatement of the year, but kudo's for someone else noticing the obvious.

[gollum]

"Protect it from what? Proclaimations of Doom stretching back into the late 1800's which haven't been right yet, and certainly aren't playing out as predicted now 4 YEARS POST PEAK IF THE TITLE IS TO BE BELIEVED? "

I'd have to disagree, I see plenty of doom around to include 2 resource wars, massive financial turmoil, volatility in oil prices, political turmoil, the beginnings of social unrest. I would have to say that almost all of the predictions for post peak oil are here now at some level. The only thing I don't see are sky high oil prices but I don't think $70 a barrel is particularly cheap considering real world unemployment is reaching 20% in some areas and demand is down considerably.

[thuja]

Yeah SOS I'm afraid you must be living in a bit of bubble- the last few years have seen dramatic world events related to oil politics. The Iraq war, conflict in Nigeria and parts of Africa, power plays by Venezuela, Russia...massive food price spikes in large part due to astronomical oil prices...the list goes on and on.

The Wall Street Journal just did a great article that puts the blame for this recession in large part due to oil constraints and the run up in oil price.

Are you seriously saying nothing is happening here? This is why I don't really converse with you. There are good arguments to say that the peak is not here and that we are at a plateau.

But to dismiss the influence of the peak and decline of oil: I'm sorry- not even the main thinktanks do that (IEA, EIA). You're naysaying simply puts you in the kook category.

[gollum]

I have to add, there's no question at all about long term growth the only question is are we on a plateau or past peak. The other nagging question is are we as a society going to have an organised power down or are we gonna try to have BAU until the house of cards collapses?
Observing how TPTB are handling things so far I'm betting on a very bad collapse (probably a series of collapses) at some point, with the end game being similar to the fall of Rome or end of the bronze age. I take no pleasure in this and would love to be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[thuja]

One of the most dramatic changes this plateau has caused has been a permanent change in pricing structure.

Basically, we can be in a massive recession and have cheap oil. Or we can have strong economic growth with expensive oil.

But we can no longer have strong economic growth with cheap oil (a la 90's).

That...is...a... watershed.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')ne of the most dramatic changes this plateau has caused has been a permanent change in pricing structure.

That...is...a... watershed.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In the meantime, considering how awe inspiring and earth shattering THAT watershed was...I'd have to venture that this one has been a bit of a dud.

1973 was the end of innocence, and I don't really think a majority of Americans...

[thuja]

Oh and to others who still think that the recent oil shock was no big thing...here's that WSJ article:

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapit ... recession/

From the article:

"In a nutshell: Higher oil and gasoline prices whacked the U.S. auto industry, the effects of which cascaded through large swathes of the rest of the economy and helped curtail spending. Energy prices also pummeled consumers’ disposable income and confidence. To the extent that the housing meltdown did play a huge part in the recession, that too can be partially chalked up to higher oil prices: Cheap digs in the distant suburbs went underwater with $4 gasoline."

Doom? Maybe not the apocalypse- but many smart thinkers here don't expect that. They expect a cascading effect on the world economy due to oil resource constraints. IN essence this will lead to worse and worse recessions as shortages crimp industrial input.

So far since oil levels have plateaued we have seen world mega-recession number one. I'd say the smart thinkers here are batting 1000. And SOS? not making it to the major leagues yet.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'C')heap digs in the distant suburbs went underwater with $4 gasoline."

[newman1979]

The Federal Debt is now $11,880,000,000 or $11.88 trillion. The $23.7 trillion in TARP exposure was undertaken by the FED, who continue to refuse to account for their actions or refuse to disclose their actions.
Congress refuses to use oversight to find the facts. While not all of the TARP bailouts will be worthless, some, no matter how lucky we are, will be. Whether it is 10% or 50% I haven't a clue. But with house prices continuing to sink and commercial real estate sinking, I would add $2 trillion to the effective Federal Debt now for planning purposes. If done, effective Federal Debt would exceed 100% of GDP now. We are adding to our Federal Debt at around $150 billion a month. The GAO expects $1 trillion a year deficits for the next 10 years. Who pray tell will invest in our debt and who will pay it back?
All of the foregoing has a lot to do with the price of oil and the value of the dollar.
Both political parties must take credit for this folly. Bush added $5.8 trillion in 8 years. And recession Keynesian theory has been used to justify the latest additions.
Everybody with an ounce of sense knows that the foregoing is unsustainable.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '
')I
Only $23.7 trillion in US loans, guarantees and grants is stopping
the tsunami. And that's only interest for one year on $1.4 quadrillion in derivatives.

We have entered the Last Depression.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')So far since oil levels have plateaued we have seen world mega-recession number one. I'd say the smart thinkers here are batting 1000. And SOS? not making it to the major leagues yet.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')So far since oil levels have plateaued we have seen world mega-recession number one. I'd say the smart thinkers here are batting 1000. And SOS? not making it to the major leagues yet.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')So far since oil levels have plateaued we have seen world mega-recession number one. I'd say the smart thinkers here are batting 1000. And SOS? not making it to the major leagues yet.

[thuja]

For example- John Denver- many here hate him. I think he is a wonderful member (on and off again) of this site. I may vociferously disagree with him but he at least presents a cogent argument. He broadens the argument as an optimist by describing in detail his view of how we could transition away from fossil fuels.

He does not deny the imminent peak of world oil production. He just thinks we can transition. Uberdoomers hate him for that. But his argument is a welcome counterpoint.