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Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby peripato » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 07:50:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'W')hen oil is $200/bbl you will see businesses investing in mass-renewables... until then don't hold your breath. The American paradigm does not support long term thinking, just quarterly profit. Look to Japan or China for long term thinking.

Before oil is $200 pb it will collapse the economy - again. The price of oil will plummet as will investments in renewables, just as now.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for rational thinking from China or Japan. One is mired in deflation and zombie banks, the other is busy blowing the mother of all real estate and stock market bubbles.
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 09:04:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy aren't there any businesses investing in MASS-RENEWABLES?


You know, it's kind of funny.... "the war" has been airing on public TV out here, and there was a snippet about how, in 1942, in a period of about nine months, the industrial base of the entire country shifted from producing autos and other stuff to military equipment... becoming so efficient in the process that they overwhelmed their resource-limited enemies.

So it is possible for an economy to change 180 degrees in response to some national catastrophe, if the determination is in place to do it.....

I suppose arguments can be made about the profit incentive or any of a dozen reasons that caused these industries to switch over at such a rate....but in fact, it got to the point where their way of life had to be literally threatened in order to get them to make the switch.

The increase in oil to 142 dollars per barrel did, in fact, alter the lifestyles of some of the public, but I have to say, the difference was, with the excpetion of a brief period last fall, there was still oil to be had at 142. The crude oil inventory at that time was still reasonably stable.....

So, I guess the argument can be made that up until now, the market and/or inventory system has not been stressed enough for a long enough period so that the people whose livelihood depend on it have had their backs up against the wall enough to get over their fear of change. I do not know, frankly, what it will take. a 1973 event, where there is some rationing? Well, that event did cause some change to happen, but as severe as it was, it did not last long enough to get people to permanently change either.....

So, what will it take? 5 years of no OPEC? Maybe then some will see the light.

Silly humans, they are better at reacting to catastrophe than they are at anticipating it.
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 09:37:42

These CEO's should be listening to the Janitor.

Of course they are superior beings with high knowledge at hand. :lol:
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 22:09:09

The superintendent of the county had his back to school meeting at our high school today. It is the first time in thirty years that the meeting did not involve some motivational program. Everything was doom and gloom. He said our county was $8 million short of the budget. That the feds had pumped $4 million into the system. That the next four years looked like more budget short falls.
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 23:49:14

Let me tell you a story about one CEO who did "get it" and how he went out and made a difference.

Dick Cheney was running Halliburton and minding his own business in the late 1990s. In looking over the oil services industry, however, he became aware of the declining production/depletion problem. He mentioned it as an area of concern in several speeches he gave during this period.

But rather than just sit around complaining about the end of the world looming or about his bad heart, Dick Cheney went out and did something about it. He took action.

First, he infiltrated the campaign of George W. Bush, which consisted of one smart guy (Karl Rove) and a bunch of idiots. Since Rove did not want to be on the ticket, Cheney used his jedi mind trick on Bush and succeeded in wresting the VP slot from Dan Quayle's nephew, Warren G. Harding Quayle. He also succeeded in getting Donald Rumsfeld, his old crony from the Ford Administration, appointed Secretary of Defense, since he would need a similarly enlightened mind to help him implement his plan of action.

Once elected, Cheney completed his mastery of George W. Bush's mind, and then went to work on securing future energy supplies for the U.S., first through clearing pipeline routes through military action in Afghanistan, and then by securing a very large pool of oil in Iraq.

The fact that the military operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq created massive amounts of work for both Halliburton and KBR is just further testament to the foresight of this remarkable man.

He saw the problem and he did something about it.

Where have you gone Dick Cheney?
A nation turns its cynical and disillusioned eyes to you.


Image

Dick Cheney heard the peak oil call and that mofo answered it!
:)
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Aug 2009, 08:18:53

:-D
What he said!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby Buggy » Thu 20 Aug 2009, 19:00:37

Staying on topic, even though I am a Ford man, GM is making its attempt at preparing. Wildly uneconomical at $2.50 per gallon gasoline, GM is pushing ahead with the Volt, as if TPTB have come to grips with the reality that $2.50 per gallon gas will soon be a distant memory as we ride the ever so bumpy plateau of Peak Oil. GM's miscalculation is in the assumption that anybody will have enough money/credit to buy the Volt.
"We have flown up our own collective numeric bung-hole."
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 20 Aug 2009, 22:49:37

There is a speech from the CEO of a carpet company (don't remember which one) on TED (free cornie speeches from smart people--Google it) about how his whole company has reduced its carbon footprint dramatically. To me, a message like this has a built-in awareness of resource depletion issues. His company is on to it.

The wave of mergers in the energy sector in recent years points to an awareness that there aren't huge opportunities for new discoveries out there and thus there is more value in consolidating the industry than in attempting to grow the size of the pie.

The airlines investing in more fuel efficient planes tells me they are on to it.

The airplane manufacturers focusing on more efficient models tells me they are on to it.

The U.S. military invading countries with large oil reserves tells me they are on to it.

George W. Bush living in a hyper-energy efficient home tells me he is on to it.

Building codes that are requiring more insulation and other energy efficient features tells me that local governments are on to it.

HVAC companies building dramatically more efficient cooling equipment tells me they are on to it.

Wal Mart building green stores tells me they are on to it.

All those goofy wind farm people are on to it.

Overall, I would say that if one looks around it is not hard to see that a lot of smart people are preparing for a world in which there is a lot less cheap energy available.
:)
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 18:59:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verall, I would say that if one looks around it is not hard to see that a lot of smart people are preparing for a world in which there is a lot less cheap energy available.

I've been doing that for quite a while, and I see it happening everywhere I look. That is one reason I waffle back and forth between doomerism and "It won't be that bad".
Most people are stupid, but the smart ones are trying to do things that will help them survive. Might even be enough to make a difference.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 19:32:17

Me too Hawk, I think it was Dino that said inside every doomer there is an optimist trying to get out.

I don't know if I'd go that far but...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 22 Aug 2009, 00:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'T')hat is one reason I waffle back and forth between doomerism and "It won't be that bad".
Most people are stupid, but the smart ones are trying to do things that will help them survive. Might even be enough to make a difference.


To date, I don't think much of humanity has really given an oink about many of these unpleasant scenarios. However, once that hubris gets kicked in the nuts a few times by Mother Nature people will wake up and get busy with something. It won't solve the problems, but it will probably help a little, slow down the process, and maybe some lucky and unforeseen development will occur.

It's really hard to say, and those who settle on a definite future of doom aren't doing themselves any favors.

However it all ultimately turns out, I'll bet it will not be according to the doomer or cornie predictions.
:)
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 21:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tudy Says World's Stocks Controlled by Select Few
Companies from US, UK and Australia have the most concentrated financial power.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') recent analysis of the 2007 financial markets of 48 countries has revealed that the world's finances are in the hands of just a few mutual funds, banks, and corporations. This is the first clear picture of the global concentration of financial power, and point out the worldwide financial system's vulnerability as it stood on the brink of the current economic crisis.


http://www.insidescience.org/research/study_says_world_s_stocks_controlled_by_select_few

Just for the record, this, via Savinar's website is in agreement with the rant on Page 2 of this thread.
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby centralstump » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 23:04:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilcritic', 'S')o why are people believing what we hear about peak oil and its economic catastrophes from environmentalists rather then economists and business people?

Fatih Birol is an Economist.
Boone Pickens is a business person
Richard Raintree is a business person
Robert Hirsh is an economist
Warren Buffet is a business person
Jeff Rubin is an Economist
etc.

You use alot of generalizations in your entry. So the literal reading doesn't even deserve an answer. I think people would call it a Strawman. I hate that phrase because I'm a closet demagogue myself. Even though a literal reading of your entry amounts to a joke, I think the spirit of your entry is the at the heart of peak oil (and climate change) Doomerism.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peakoilcritic', 'I')f peak oil is going to shatter the economy into a million pieces, then we can expect that businesses will be preparing. They are not, they are continuing to invest, they are continuing about their daily business without worrying about any impending doom.
I think alot of people who are talking "Mad Max" are doing so BECAUSE action is so slow.

"Why are people not doing anything?" is not the question. It is the answer. The question is,"Why do you people think the future is so bleak?"

Our lack of belief in the ability/willingness of our society to change is the reason we are so grim. I am a dogmatic believer in the inability of people to set aside competition and cooperate. (I would buy a pulpit if they would let me preach this) There is absolutely no advantage to being the only person / business to change to uncompetitive strategies. Your family / company / city / state / country will be GONE before catastrophic interruptions occur.

A simple example: Do you make payments of $500 on solar panels for your house leaving you with 50 cents to eat this month or do you spend $500 for you and your kids to eat this month so you are here next month to worry about those solar panels? Pretty simple.

Short term thinking IS the answer to your question. But the short term thinking is not because of insanity. It is because of NECESSITY.

A good place to start to understand this stuff is the book: The Tragedy of the Commons by Garrett Harden
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Re: Why Aren't Businesses Preparing?

Unread postby JJ » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 09:16:52

here is my example: when Bing and I got married, 15 years ago, I bought ten large Hersheys chocolate bars to take to the Philippines with me . (the kids there ate them and got sick). Those bars cost .99 cents for a one pound bar.
Yesterday we were in the grocery store, and the same bar weighs 4.7 ounces and cost 1.39.

This is businesses way of preparing. Business is about making money.
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