[gnm]

Oily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?!

-G

[Tyler_JC]

What's the margin of error for yearly oil production? 1%? 2%?

I don't think there's a statistically signficant difference between 73,728 and 73,709. The gap is only 19,000 barrels a day out of 73 million or .03%.

Moreover, we're in the middle of a major recession which has slashed global oil demand. We can't know for sure what the real production rate would be if not for the current recession.



We had a pretty big dip in oil production in the 1980s (nearly 15% drop!) that didn't result in a permanent decline.

We need more data to confirm a peak. Come talk to me in 2011-2012.

I don't mean to rain on this parade, I just don't want us to make the call too early and sound like Colin Campbell.

[newman1979]

2008 had oil at $147 and had every producer selling all they could produce. The result was and is that even with the price sky high and all economic theory on their side, the result was less than 2005.
Maybe you should become a preacher where beliefs trump facts.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', 'O')ilfinder2 care to step in and try to debate this?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'p')retty big news.

This from the weekly petroleum status report was also fairly big news ..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')h. There you are. The point here I believe is that oil demand is somewhat inelastic and that in time of economic decline neither the market, nor conservation, nor efficiencies, nor replacements can stem the flow from declining reservoirs.

It's almost as if we are floating in a vast toilet of petroleum with our own hands on the flusher handle. Do we yank? Or do we just enjoy the float?

[Auntie_Cipation]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')ily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?!

-G

[TheDude]

OMG OF2, you figured out how to host images finally.

Still picking those cherries though.

Oil consumption percentage changes year to year, by region:



The decline in gasoline demand in the US is partially due to the introduction of ethanol, amounting to something like 1.2 mb/d now; plus good old garden variety demand destruction, due to the price runup and the recessiodepression, which may or may not last forever or have ended last week according to Krugman who really cares.

What was your other data point...YOY, oh right. So since the economy will grow once more now, consumption will increase, and we will be right back where we started from. Or not. "Increaseless Recovery," damn, I'm on a roll.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')hat was your other data point...YOY, oh right. So since the economy will grow once more now, consumption will increase, and we will be right back where we started from. Or not. "Increaseless Recovery," damn, I'm on a roll.

[copious.abundance]

Here ya go TheDude, not just one, but THREE "increaseless recoveries!"

France



Source

Italy



Source

Japan


>>> Big chart of Japanese GDP growth Q12001-Q12008 <<<
Source

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')ily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?!

-G

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', ' ')So even if its 2015 we better hurry ....

[TheDude]

Must have been quite a chore to find GDP charts that terminate right as the recession started. Japan's number of vehicle registrations decreased by 2.6%
1997-2007; all three of your examples have extensive MT networks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ransport in France relies on one of the densest and most efficient networks in the world with 146 km of road and 6.2 km of rail lines per 100 km2. It is built as a web with Paris at its centre.[1] France is currently one of the world leaders in railway technology and is also in the forefront of modern tramway developments.

[copious.abundance]

TheDude, you don't even know what cherry-picking is.

Notice that my charts of oil consumption in Italy, France and Japan began in 2004 and go to the present.

Notice also that my charts of GDP growth in Italy, France and Japan roughly cover the same periods (I couldn't find charts exactly matching the same time periods, but they're close-enough).

In France in 2004-2006, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP was growing.

In Italy from 2004-2007, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP grew during most quarters.

In Japan from 2004-2007, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP grew during most quarters.

Even after the current recession, the economies of all 3 nations is larger than it was in 2004. I can dig up the actual numbers for you if you'd like. In other words:

GDP of all 3 nations > now than in 2004
Oil consumption of all 3 nations < now than in 2004.

Increasing oil consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth. Really!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')ncreasing oil consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth. Really!

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')'ll try one more time: The nations you selected as your examples have vast investments in mass transit, thus have buttressed themselves against increases in the price of crude oil by not having such a great dependency on fossil fuel powered personal transport . . .

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.

[thuja]

Very interesting news Newman...but I'm still going to say we are in a plateau and won't know the true peak for a few years. I am very interested what will happen when thw world economy really revs up again. Already we are seeing signs of this with a huge increase in oil price.

My guess is that within a year or two, we will see astronomical oil prices again (150-200$/barrel)- again leading to severe economic contraction.

My belief is that we can no longer see sustained growth and cheap or even moderate oil prices ever again.