by DantesPeak » Sat 27 Jun 2009, 23:50:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]DantesPeak said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es we could see a drop in new unemployment claims when they are discharged from bankruptcy, but that will only help the monthly unemployment rate a small amount.
I also said elsewhere that we may see a one or two month improvement in unemployment later in the year, bus basically I see monthly unemployment higher at the end of 3 rd quarter (than the 2 nd), and higher still at the end of the 4 th.
We are likely to see a drop in unemployment sometime this year, which will occur before it again starts to escalate in 2010. Projections from the
AvailableEnergy model give unemployment levels bottoming at 485,000 a month. Of course the
model has problems here in as much that it is basing its estimates from GDP projections. The timing factor between changing GDP and changing employment has to pretty much be guessed at.
In September many unemployed will begin ending their benefit period and be permanently removed from the unemployment rolls. This will help the numbers, and not do much for those who will then have no income. This could be tracked through food stamp and welfare programs if someone had the ambition.
The
model predicts 16 years.
To clarify I mean the unemployment rate reported monthly, for example, 9.5%, 10%, etc., will be gradually escalating with a possibility of one or two months where that rate will drop in 2009.
I think we are in basic agreement that the number of new unemployed per month will fall from peak levels of 600,000 to (my guess) of 400,000, with a possibility of a one month surprise low outlier figure when the auto industry tries to start up its oil starved engine again.
However I put the odds at higher than 50% that we will have a sigificnat or worse dollar and/or bond market crisis in the fourth quarter - which may lead to new unemployment going back to 500,000 or more per month.