[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'S')o what to do in life if such a crash is underway? It is not easy to just dissappear without wealth or resources.

[Grautr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hoops_Mckann', '
')
That is very well put. Seems to sum up the mindset of the vast majority of people here in America. Once everyone runs for the exit, things seem to go down hill very quickly due to the strong influence that everyone operates ON THEIR OWN to serve their own self interests. I have observed that many here will cling to this mindset despite the mutual benefit of banding together that comes in handy in many situations.

[jesterx]

They are saying that we are going to get hit with a double whammy now

commercial real estate and credit card debt to be sort after....thats a big storm coming.

I am scared for the people been living off debt and the credit cards.

I know one couple paying off their mortgage with their credit card...man are they in for some trouble.

[pablonite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesterx', 'T')his rich fat cat wall st bankers planned all this you know what from day 1. Absolutely disgusting. They even made the conspiracy theorist sound like extra idiots.

[drgoodword]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'Y')ep, that's what I mean by the "multiple L" theory. Crash, a bit of a recovery, people get a little bit hopeful , crash, rinse and repeat. The ol' peakoilers of yore understood this well enough. But it is quite simple, really : society cannot grow faster than the energy and resources powering it. We're in for painful adjustments.

[jesterx]

ok i was scared before but ....now i think i need a new change of pants...LOL.

Do you thing Obama is pretending to fail or like some people are saying this was all planned from day 1

not a good thought to think, but still something to ponder on????? would love to know the smart guys in here thoughts?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')Please don't invest on this advice but:

I think it is quite possible but by no means certain of a grave crisis in the US financial system about the start of October, which may cause a moderate to severe selloff. However I view the next market selloff to be a lesser one, and even possibly the last one before inflationary policies start boosting the market. Here is what I recently said in another post:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e will be lucky to make it through the third quarter in the US without a moderate to severe crisis, which will more likely start around the beginning of the fourth quarter. Contributing factors will be 1) the rapid expansion of the Fed money base through the third quarter 2) failing states and falling unemployment and the Government reaction to that (more stimulus) 3) more rapid diversification out of the dollar and 4) higher interest rates.

Surprisingly I don’t think the stock market will decline much until the crisis, after another week or two of declines at the start of July.

[pablonite]

They have come up with some interesting hypothetical "trigger" events!
Hard to say how reliable the source is but one fact is clear, the Posse Comitatus Act is no longer.
It will be interesting to see how the troops back from Iraq deal with their new mission.

Fall and winter is always a good time to revamp things on a social control level, people are more subdued and less likely to go mobile.

FEMA to Conduct Massive NLE 09 Martial Law Exercise
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14521
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��The triggers include a continuing economic collapse with massive social unrest, bank closures resulting in violence against financial institutions, and another fraudulent presidential election that would result in rioting in major cities and campuses around the country,” explained Madsen.

An additional trigger has since emerged – a mass flu pandemic the government promises will occur this autumn.

In addition, Army Corps of Engineer sources told the journalist that the assignment of the 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT) to the Northern Command’s U.S. Army North will augment FEMA and federal law enforcement in the imposition of traffic controls, crowd control, curfews, enhanced border and port security, and neighborhood patrols in the event a national emergency being declared.

[mark000]

Whats going on with the DOW, @ 9000+ ?

It appears to me that stock market players have developed a fairly rosy out look for the rest of the year and 2010
So where has this optimism come from, and is it justified? I don't think it is justified, there is too much more bad news coming regarding unemployment and financial institutions issues with increasing defaults on all types of loans, to name but 2 problems.

I believe the optimism is building in them because it has now been 4 good months, and the longer this good passages lasts the more hopeful they will get.

The major problem is they don't understand how big the housing bubble was, and how long and bad the burst is going to be.

The rise of the DOW from 6500 to 9000+ ......... IS JUST A BUBBLE??

A BUBBLE about to BURST in August or September?

The false confidence they are currently experiencing will collapse in the face of some significantly bad news that will lead to the realization that 2010 is going to be much more bleak that they are currently anticipating.

I would not be surprised at all to see a DOW drop of 1000 points within 3-5 sessions, at some stage during the next 6 weeks.
If it does prove that the recent runup is due to a unjustified optimism then the DOW at 7500 may not be that far away.

[Pops]

I don't know anything about this stuff but I'd think somebody's bottom line should be looking blacker when you consider how many newly unemployed people?

But you can't fire yourself to more income, only less outgo...

[graycycle]

Jesterx asks an important question, one that we should all be contemplating regardless of how secure we may now feel. Will this economy crisis bottom out in the near future and quickly return to levels we saw in 2006-07? Personally, I believe the answer is, no. We have crossed a tipping point in history, and there is no going back. The faith of the American consumer has been shaken to its very roots, and, without the devil-may-care willingness to go into debt to buy things they did not need or could not afford, the economy will stay in the cellar for the foreseeable future. For those who buy into the "green shoots" assurances, I suggest reading the historic timeline for the Great Depression. What we are now experiencing looks uncomfortably like the false "recoveries" that took place in the early years of the depression. Rather than waiting for an economic turnaround I suggest getting ready for lean years ahead.

[DantesPeak]

In answer to some questions above, yes it is a mini-bubble of sorts, and will eventually catch up to reality, but not right away.

I don't see the ingredients for a very sharp fall in the market soon, although as I mentioned further above, a move by either the dollar and/or the bond market below their recent trading range would be a very important signal the temporary good times were over.

Keeping the market up is a very fast expansion of the US money base, and also, the Chinese money base. Chinese companies borrowed $1 trillion in the second quarter, which indicates the world central bank money machines are functioning quite well at printing up new money. The purchase of US treasuries and mortgages by the Fed is not something that can be easily reversed - indicating a commitment to inflation by the Fed.

None the less, stock market values can not be forever maintained without some improvement at the underlying companies. Just remember the market can stay elevated for a while, even as things get worse. Just look back to early 2000 when high tech companies weren't doing well but their stocks were still sky high.

[mark000]

Will the latest story in the UK Independant cause some turmoil in the Oil Markets this week?

"In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated."

(Story link in Current Events forum)

The IEA talking Doomish?! Whatever next!

Gonna be an interesting month, this could cause gloom.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark000', 'W')ill the latest story in the UK Independant cause some turmoil in the Oil Markets this week?

"In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated."

(Story link in Current Events forum)

The IEA talking Doomish?! Whatever next!

Gonna be an interesting month, this could cause gloom.

[alokin]

If there is a second down within the next months or so, that would have a real impact, because those who believed in the green shoots would stop believing anything. If it's longer the subjects may have forgotten.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesterx', 'H')ey guys I am new to all this, have just lost my job, and down a bit.

[Pops]

But lately it's the consumer that pulls the economy out, but the consumer may not be consuming quite so much.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')overnment data today showed that the household savings rate rose to 6.9 percent in May, the highest since December 1993

[vaseline2008]

Disclaimer: The author of this piece is from ETF Guide.com and correctly called the last year in regards to the markets. I am in no way promoting his site.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Watch Out - Even This Rally Parallels The Great Depression

Like an athlete on adrenalin, the market is fueled by investor optimism and perception only. Just as adrenaline doesn't last for long, this rally won't either.

Investors who've experienced a few bear markets (1970s and 1980s) know that a new bull market climbs a wall of worry. In other words, new bull markets rise amidst a climate of 'this rally won't last' predictions, not 'the worst is over' attitude. In fact, based on the extreme levels of enthusiasm, it is pretty safe to say that the next leg down will be quite powerful (similar to January - March 2009).

How did gullible investors, who allowed themselves to be swept away by unfounded optimism, fare during the Great Depression? The author mentioned at the outset of this article, John Kenneth Galbraith, described it like this:

'The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited until trading conditions returned to normal, saw the common stocks they purchased drop to a third, and in some cases even a fourth of their purchase price over the next 24 months. The bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.'

Already, this decline has dwarfed the 1973-74, or 1981-82 bear market. Comparing this recession to the recessions of the 70s and 80s, is like comparing Hurricane Katrina to your average summer storm.

Another identifying mark of a depression is deflation. Unlike inflation, deflation suppresses prices of ALL asset classes. Prior to the rally from the March lows, all asset classes were in the red. In addition to stocks and many bonds, even commodities lost money. Broad commodity ETFs such as the PowerShares DB Commodity Fund (NYSEArca: DBA - News), iShares S&P GSCI Commodity ETF (NYSEArca: GSG - News), and even oil lost between 60 and 70%.

The only other time the 'red across the board' phenomenon occurred, was.... you guessed it - during the Great Depression. If you tune out the noise and focus on the facts, it becomes clear that historic parallels are simply too powerful to ignore, the downside risk is huge, the stakes are too high.

[Minvaren]

Mish posted a great graph in a recent article of his :



Full-size pic in the article (way too big to post inline here). Welcome to 1930.

[hillsidedigger]

The Crash hasn't arrived, yet.