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An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 00:55:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')ell...I'm an empiricist. Your utopian view of the future and Monte's dystopian view can't both be right.


Utopian? I don't need a utopian future to be right, I just need the newest Malthusian game to be wrong for all the usual reasons.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 01:00:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The only human transport system we've put into space and on another planet (actually the moon) is the moon buggy.


Please...you are thinking SMALL again. Since when do humans need to be involved in the colonization of another planet if our machines can go there, prospect, gather up and bring back whatever we need? Its like having a dog which fetches the paper, no point in a human going if some lackey, bio-chemical or mechanical can do the job better.

Humans built a transport system for our prospectors...which just happen to be mechanical in nature this time. Silly bio-chemical creature, thinking that transport only matters for other bio-chemical creatures.

And I didn't say anything about what powered the moon rover....last I looked the only planet we've populated with a 100% solar powered transport system ( for those mechanical prospectors ) was Mars. Why would you confuse something BATTERY powered with the real deal?
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 13:17:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '.')...a 100% solar powered transport system ( for those mechanical prospectors ) was Mars.


Bzzzt. Ohhh....good guess, but the Martian rovers are not a transport system because they don't transport anything.

Perhaps you meant to suggest that the Martian rovers are a model for a future Martian transport system and mining system. Its a lovely idea, but you need to learn a bit about EROI. The two Martian rovers now on Mars cost 800 million dollars.....scaling them up to the point they could explore for minerals and mine ore and transport ore would cost many many many billions. Building and getting the imaginary scaled up rovers to Mars, having them find and then mine ore, and then getting it back to earth would cost trillions and trillions----and your return payload would only be a few thousand pounds of ore.

It really isn't practical to spend trillions and trillions of dollars to retrieve a few hundred dollars worth of ore from Mars. You'd get more metal just by scapping the rocket and the "transport system" on the launching pad then you would by sending it to mars to go mining. :roll:
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 22:56:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')How much energy do you reckon would be required to hoist mining buckets? Could there every be a space ship heavy and large enough?


Well Pstarr, now THOSE are good questions. I might be going out on a limb here, but I would say it would all require a BUNCH of energy. HUGE bunches.

But I would venture this guess....considering those lifting costs, versus some clever monkey coming up with a much more energy efficient way of doing it, I'll be betting on the clever monkey rather than the lunkhead approach of trying to boost a Caterpillar dozer and its related strip mining equipment to the asteroid belt to begin large scale mining operations. Call me crazy, but this is just one of those little "look down the road a nano second and guessing at the future" things which Malthus, Ehrlich, Catton and their favorite fan, Monte, seem to have such a tough time with.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 23:10:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '.')...a 100% solar powered transport system ( for those mechanical prospectors ) was Mars.


Bzzzt. Ohhh....good guess, but the Martian rovers are not a transport system because they don't transport anything.


I've already explained what they transport. Back in the late 1800's these devices, they were called "mules", nowadays they are called "Spirit" and "Opportunity", which probably sounds cooler and why they deceived you from the obvious.

What kind of prospector leaves his planet without some decent prospecting tools!

http://marsrover.nasa.gov/mission/space ... nstru.html

And the orbital stuff, call me crazy, but it sure sounds like a mag/grav detector of some sort, which have been used to locate interesting geological features related to good locations to drill for oil!

To heck with Pstarrs idea of boosting mining equipment into space, we need to consider how to get the fossil fuel liquids out of Mars to offset the awe inspiring consequences of peak oil last year! :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Perhaps you meant to suggest that the Martian rovers are a model for a future Martian transport system and mining system.


No. I meant they are mules. Haven't you ever seen one before? Good God man, haven't you ever been to the Grand Canyon before?

http://www.grandcanyonlodges.com/mule-trips-716.html

I'm sure Monte could tell us all sorts of things about them, what they eat, what they dump, how much water they drink, he's probably used them himself! Geez....transport systems abound and you act like mules don't count!!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')It really isn't practical to spend trillions and trillions of dollars to retrieve a few hundred dollars worth of ore from Mars. You'd get more metal just by scapping the rocket and the "transport system" on the launching pad then you would by sending it to mars to go mining. :roll:


Such pessimists around here. Can you see Queen Isabella berating Columbus? "YOU FOOL!" she says. "YOU SPEND ALL OUR MONEY AND RETRIEVE A FEW OUNCES OF GOLD AND SOME BROWN SKINNED NATIVES!!!"

If he had just told her about the stuff she didn't know about yet, like how important peak oil would one day be, and how people would claim the same thing about Mars! :P
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby outcast » Fri 05 Jun 2009, 23:52:23

With the exception of precious metals (platinum and gold mainly) whatever gets mined off world, either on mars, the moon, or the asteroid belt would be used either for building things on those planets/asteroids or building things in space. Getting stuff off of Earth sucks for the moment, but mars and the moon both have much lower gravity, so it doesn't take such a powerful rocket to get off of it.


As for launching things from Earth, when this is finished being developed, it will greatly reduce the cost of launching stuff into space from earth.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 06 Jun 2009, 00:09:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'W')ith the exception of precious metals (platinum and gold mainly) whatever gets mined off world, either on mars, the moon, or the asteroid belt would be used either for building things on those planets/asteroids or building things in space. Getting stuff off of Earth sucks for the moment, but mars and the moon both have much lower gravity, so it doesn't take such a powerful rocket to get off of it.


As for launching things from Earth, when this is finished being developed, it will greatly reduce the cost of launching stuff into space from earth.


Much like mankind took a much maligned and thoroughly useless substance like oozing crude oil seeps and used it to build suburbia and provide excellent motorsporting events the world over, I'm betting that, unlike Catton and his legions of cronies ( can he have legions, considered how thoroughly crappy the cover of his book was? ) clever monkeys will continue to prevail, screams of the pessimists, powerdowners and what-have-you doomsday cults notwithstanding.
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Re: An admission -- I'm not sure if Peak Oil is true

Unread postby bodigami » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 06:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The only human transport system we've put into space and on another planet (actually the moon) is the moon buggy.


Please...you are thinking SMALL again. Since when do humans need to be involved in the colonization of another planet if our machines can go there, prospect, gather up and bring back whatever we need? Its like having a dog which fetches the paper, no point in a human going if some lackey, bio-chemical or mechanical can do the job better.

Humans built a transport system for our prospectors...which just happen to be mechanical in nature this time. Silly bio-chemical creature, thinking that transport only matters for other bio-chemical creatures.

And I didn't say anything about what powered the moon rover....last I looked the only planet we've populated with a 100% solar powered transport system ( for those mechanical prospectors ) was Mars. Why would you confuse something BATTERY powered with the real deal?
The Saturn V moon rocket burned 15 tons of propellant per second to carry several men and their aluminum/carbon fiber vehicle into orbit. How much energy do you reckon would be required to hoist mining buckets? Could there every be a space ship heavy and large enough?

Short you have now entered into the Pantheon of Peak Oil Techtopians. Short meet JohnDenver. JD meet Brains. :razz:


Teleportation.
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