Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby Auntie_Cipation » Sun 02 Aug 2009, 20:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')ertainly do not take some random poster on the internets word for anything.


I would never. But some direction as to where I'd find a discussion that you feel authentically discredits any of these folks would have been appreciated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') would recommend you read the works of Malthus. I would recommend you read "The Coal Question". I would recommend you read "The Population Bomb", particularly an early edition. I would recommend you read Duncans update of his Olduvai Gorge paper available at the Energy Bulletin.


I may or may not get around to reading those works anytime soon, as I'm rather full up at the moment with other things. But I'm interested enough to be asking for what you believe constitutes proof that they've been discredited. If you don't care to share that information, then, per your own advice, I will continue to think that these guys are the prevailing thinkers on their respective subjects, unless and until I have the time to do the research to conclude otherwise. Bummer that you don't want to back up your assertions, as I think you're probably right on at least some of them, I just want to know from where you think what you think.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')here is no forum available at this website which can force someone to think in a fashion which they may be uncomfortable with, or unfamiliar with, or to see evidence which they choose to ignore.


You've stumped me here. I'm not asking to be forced to think anything. I'm asking to be clued in to the consensus out there that has discredited these folks. And if there is no consensus and it's only YOU whose discreditation you're referring to, I'd like to know that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') would recommend you read a history book as to what actually happened in the world and match that to the predictions of these fine authors.


To the extent that I'm familiar with their predictions, most of what they predicted to happen would just be happening now or would not have happened yet (within a range of relevance). As I said, predictions on the global scale we're discussing are not something I would dismiss merely for being off on a timeline, if their logic and assessments of the dynamics going on are otherwise sound. Even several decades off would be irrelevant to me if it's otherwise a logical prediction.

If you don't care to share your sources, that's fine. I'll keep my ears open for reasons to discredit them, but in the meantime, sadly, what you're saying has no meaning to me.
"... among the ways available in which a man can die, it is a rare and signal distinction to be killed by a leopard."

-- Raymond Dasmann
User avatar
Auntie_Cipation
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 02 Aug 2009, 21:42:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')ertainly do not take some random poster on the internets word for anything.


I would never. But some direction as to where I'd find a discussion that you feel authentically discredits any of these folks would have been appreciated.


I see.

Then let me list the following. Malthus expressed population growth as an exponential function, which it was not, and is not. By then claiming to match an exponential function to an arithmetic one, he had an obviously predictable, and horrendous, and wrong, result.

A lesser error on his part was underestimating something which is much easier to see today, which is the application of clever monkeys to any particular problem, and the resulting efficiencies.

The incorrect function might not seem like much, but it led Malthus to the basic premise that population growth will outrun food production growth. This premise has been recycled ever since, usually without consideration for why it didn't pan out the first time it was declared.

Jevons predicted the end of England because of the lack of coal in the future. Here is a wiki quote:

"Coal in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material energy of the country — the universal aid — the factor in everything we do. With coal almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times. With such facts familiarly before us, it can be no matter of surprise that year by year we make larger draughts upon a material of such myriad qualities — of such miraculous powers."

Read that quote carefully....substitute oil for coal and you might think Campbell wrote it himself.

Heres another wiki good one.

"In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress."

Someone lecturing on how EROEI will stop us monkeys 150 years ago...gee...I wonder what all that stuff is we burn in powerplants for electricity nowadays?

Heres the part which ended up torpedoing Jevons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitute_good

It may not be his fault, because I don't even know if the concept had been incorporated into proto-economics during his lifetime, so he may be forgiven for not suspecting it could torpedo him. In either case, torpedo him it did. Nowadays its easy to see substitutes for crude, and how we can use them, and to estimate their costs. A large part of peakerdom now is to discredit them if at all possible...although its not working as well as it used to.

Ehrlich effectively recycled Malthus, except he put firm dates and human deaths in his predictions. Unfortunate for him. I consider Ehrlich the first guy who really should have known better in all of this, and him losing the belt to Simon was just icing on the cake.

Duncan pulled a real boner. In 1999 when he presented to GSA, the evidence for the sizes and shapes of shale gas was already 20 years old. The resource pyramid was a known concept. People had been producing the shales for a century. Duncan chose to ignore the science which was already in the publis view, proclaimed the end of the world because of lack of natural gas in 2008...and now we are drowning in the stuff. Duncan is a smart guy and a full blown scientist, sometimes there is no cure for myopia.

Those are the basics.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '
')If you don't care to share your sources, that's fine. I'll keep my ears open for reasons to discredit them, but in the meantime, sadly, what you're saying has no meaning to me.


I have shared. Feel free to decide for yourself.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby Auntie_Cipation » Sun 02 Aug 2009, 22:03:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') have shared. Feel free to decide for yourself.


Thank you, this is exactly what I was asking for. I appreciate it.
"... among the ways available in which a man can die, it is a rare and signal distinction to be killed by a leopard."

-- Raymond Dasmann
User avatar
Auntie_Cipation
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 210
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 02:39:07

Assuming July 2008 was peak, I would expect some turbulence in oil prices until (if) we pull out of this recession and demand for oil pushes up again... I would expect the economy to improve enough by late 2010 for oil prices to start being pushed up into the 80's.

Eventually I would expect oil prices to rise beyond the 80's, perhaps up to $150 again but NOT due to speculation & more prolonged, which would knock us into another recession. Probably 2011 or 2012...

I would expect oil demand to drop pretty quickly in 2011-12 due to recession, and oil prices to fall. Mexico is likely to collapse during 2012.

Assuming a recovery 2014-2015... I would expect oil prices to rise again, due by this time to not only recovered demand but significant (and obvious) oil extraction decline. I would expect government rationing (ala 1970s) by this point or at least within a few years, like 2016-2017. I would expect at this point a greater push for electric car production... much greater push...

The 2020's I would be surprised to NOT see significant starvation in the 3rd world and the beginning of a 3rd world die off.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
User avatar
rangerone314
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4105
Joined: Wed 03 Dec 2008, 04:00:00
Location: Maryland
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 15:29:02

shortonsense...your name fits...but that isnt the point of my post.

Your Cherry picking the minority view . Most of us here, me included, see a longer term generational issue which is serious, can have dramatic effects (at some times) and needs addressing now. We cant wait for years while the snowball continues to grow in size and momentum. I think you're constant arguing about multiple peaks (which is stupid as no one here acknowledges it) and the fact that there is no view towards anything positive as an outcome cannot be supported. Look around here a bit, many propose directly addressing the myriad challenges which face us. You are obviously in denial. You point only to the fact that things are still moving along BAU as your only argument.

You truly do not have a grasp of what Net Energy is. You do not understand the Decline/Discovery dilemma which faces us and in light of the EIA's latest report you do not understand how the present picture affects global industry or the world's economies. You also seem to completely dismiss the majority of human reaction to this sort of thing. When you can point to tangible evidence which supports a giant scale of willingness, ability, and cooperation to move to vastly smaller scales of living, then maybe I'll start paying attention to your cornucopian drivel.

Its not going to come crashing down around our ears. Most of us here DO NOT BELIEVE OR ESPOUSE THAT. Stop using it as what amounts to a baseless and childish argument.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 21:39:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 's')hortonsense...your name fits...but

Look around here a bit, many propose directly addressing the myriad challenges which face us. You are obviously in denial. You point only to the fact that things are still moving along BAU as your only argument.


It is not denial to notice that prior claims of Doom have not come to pass. It is simply historical fact. A common way to test any particular model is to run it against the past, where all input parameters, and results, are already known. The climate people do this quite a bit to see how their models work.

When Doom is proclaimed, pick one, Malthus, Jevons, Ehrlich, Duncan, and it does not happen, it begs the question WHY. I realize that asking WHY is not encouraged because it might lead to thinking which does conform with some other person or groups perspective, or will be interpreted as "knocking" someone's favorite hysterical scenario, so carefully assembled over the years, seeing it shot to pieces in the odd 5 minutes can certainly be disconcerting.

If Doom does not arrive on schedule, any reasonable person, such as myself, is allowed to ask WHY. It is not considered denial in any part of the world which actually fact checks its statements and concepts against the past to determine their validity. If you feel badly that the validity of the proclaimed peak oil effects has not lived up to initial claims, I apologize.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') You truly do not have a grasp of what Net Energy is.


I can calculate net energy until the cows come home, if I felt it was relevant.

Not a single person has yet come forward, of all the people on this website, or any other website related to peak oil, of the tens and hundreds of thousands who have held a position of responsibility over the past half century in the oilfield, have EVER claimed to run a meeting to determine which investment was to be approved because of net energy.

I don't have a grasp of net energy? Show its relevance...find a single industry exec who approved a $50 Million dollar pissant project on that basis, and I will reconsider my opinion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')You also seem to completely dismiss the majority of human reaction to this sort of thing.


Which "sort of thing"? Those other peak oils? Some were pretty scary weren't they? The President thought we were running out! 30 years ago. Gee...I wonder how that worked out?

Look Airline, if you want to convince me that Doom is just around the corner, then first you have to explain why you were expressing such terror at Saudi production figures, various claims by various people about what they could, or could not, or wouldn't want to, or didn't want to, back in 2005 or thereabouts? 4 years later, did you think that terror was relevant THEN? Are you still terrified or has it passed along with the intervening 2 peak oils? Or was it just another false alarm which I admit, I do tend to notice ( see initial paragraph for explanation why ).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')
When you can point to tangible evidence which supports a giant scale of willingness, ability, and cooperation to move to vastly smaller scales of living, then maybe I'll start paying attention to your cornucopian drivel.


And when you stop getting scared by some odd Saudi report, 4 years after it happened and with the awe inspiring results of...2 peak oils and prices $1.40 / gallon cheaper this summer, I'll consider your implied scenario of only smaller living being the solution as having any validity whatsoever.

Certainly BAU has plowed right on through the last 2 peak oils and it certainly hasn't required smaller scales of living in the least.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') Its not going to come crashing down around our ears. Most of us here DO NOT BELIEVE OR ESPOUSE THAT. Stop using it as what amounts to a baseless and childish argument.

Search on Ruppert and see the number of times he has been quoted around here. And Kunstler. And it isn't my fault that these favorites predicted Doom a long time ago....so it certainly isn't childish to notice that "heros of the movement" have been doing EXACTLY what I've noticed....claiming the end is NOW..heck, some of them proclaim it happened awhile ago and us sheeple haven't noticed. If YOU haven't noticed, does that mean this gang is bashing regular honest Peakers like you as well?

Ehrlich's time frame has passed...England is still there. Duncan claimed the permanent blackouts in 2008...had any in your neck of the woods? Monte proclaimed the airlines would stop flying and NASCAR would stop....not only am I thinking about flying next week, but I watched a NASCAR race this past weekend.

There is quite a bit of revisionist interpretation now going on because of EXACTLY how bad prior claims of Doom worked out ( which is to say, no one has noticed much ), and it isn't childish to notice. Quite the contrary.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 03 Aug 2009, 22:07:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') can calculate net energy until the cows come home, if I felt it was relevant.

I don't have a grasp of net energy? Show its relevance...find a single industry exec who approved a $50 Million dollar pissant project on that basis, and I will reconsider my opinion.


If you cant understand why this is important to the future and how Peak oil plays into Available Energy than i cant help you. I really cant. This is a simple concept.
I suggest ShortonOil's premise and trying to grasp it. I believe he has explained it many times. The search function works well for this. Since you have obviously played on his name I can only conjecture that you categorically reject it. I'd categorize that as closed minded and immature.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'L')ook Airline, if you want to convince me that Doom is just around the corner, then first you have to explain why you were expressing such terror at Saudi production figures, various claims by various people about what they could, or could not, or wouldn't want to, or didn't want to, back in 2005 or thereabouts? 4 years later, did you think that terror was relevant THEN? Are you still terrified or has it passed along with the intervening 2 peak oils? Or was it just another false alarm which I admit, I do tend to notice ( see initial paragraph for explanation why ).


I do not and did not express "terror" at any of those reports. That's purely your incorrect assumption. We have not officially past Peak Oil yet. You are referring once again to high points along what currently appears to be a plateau of global production. I personally do not believe that we have peaked yet. it is possible and may be likely but I will reserve judgement for the future when it is evident that we are in terminal decline.

You are refusing to hear what most of us here are saying. Where do you see actual predictions which include a time frame? Where do you see those without qualifiers?
Most of the thinkers in here, and I include myself in this group, understand that this is a long term issue. Predicting when and how economic and social events due to PO will transpire is a fools errand.

The more you keep referring to the "many peaks" the less and less credibility you earn. I fail to see where anyone in here including myself did not understand fully that local peaks and volatility surrounding the actual Peak would be the norm. Your claims about this and that "peak" are absurd.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 13:52:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'I') can calculate net energy until the cows come home, if I felt it was relevant.

I don't have a grasp of net energy? Show its relevance...find a single industry exec who approved a $50 Million dollar pissant project on that basis, and I will reconsider my opinion.


If you cant understand why this is important to the future and how Peak oil plays into Available Energy than i cant help you. I really cant. This is a simple concept.


Which is why I can calculate it all day long for a particular process, and why you can't present a single, not ONE person who ever used such claptrap to judge the merits of an oil and gas project the world over. Its a strawman, nothing more. Does it matter in a theoretical sense? Sure. Does it matter in the arena in which the oilfield industry exists? Not at all. Lets lot forget, the sun is an unsustainable system, and the only reason people aren't worried about peak hydrogen is because of the time span involved. They ignore the consequences simply because of time, and the consequences of peak hydrogen are more certain, and final, then any net energy argument applied to any human endeavor in the history of our species.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')[I do not and did not express "terror" at any of those reports. That's purely your incorrect assumption. We have not officially past Peak Oil yet. You are referring once again to high points along what currently appears to be a plateau of global production. I personally do not believe that we have peaked yet. it is possible and may be likely but I will reserve judgement for the future when it is evident that we are in terminal decline.


Would you like me to round up the quote again which sure implied that you were pissing your pants over some particular mind bending irrelevant historical point or another? And then we can parse what you meant? I would hate for your past words to have given the distinct impression that you were quivering in your boots, maybe we can review them and you can show me the error of my ways?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') You are refusing to hear what most of us here are saying.


Screaming 2+2=5 at the top of ones lungs does not require the agreement of those who know the correct answer. Those of us who know that 2+2=4 are all quite surprised that peakers continue in this charade considering whats happened since 2005, let alone the one, true, all knowing, all seeing, awe inspiring peak oil event itself more than a year ago now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Where do you see actual predictions which include a time frame? Where do you see those without qualifiers?


Malthus. Jevons. Ehrlich. Duncan. I already listed why.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Most of the thinkers in here, and I include myself in this group, understand that this is a long term issue. Predicting when and how economic and social events due to PO will transpire is a fools errand.


I would agree its a long term issue. JP Lesley in about 1889 claimed that oil would run out during his grandchildrens time. This issue is so long term its been going on as long as humans have been using oil. Somehow, I think that Peakers had something a little more REAL TIME in mind when they proclaimed various forms and versions of death and destruction. Matt Savinar posted at his sight in May,2008, a thread about getting together while there was still time. He erased it during his "lets get rid of the evidence" spasm awhile ago. Do you think he wrote that post becaue he figured more than a year later our gasoline would be cheaper, post peak, and our airline tickets cheaper, and we wouldn't be able to see each other because of it, or because the end was coming? He is an expert mind you, I heard Roscoe say so.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') The more you keep referring to the "many peaks" the less and less credibility you earn.


Then I shall accept poor credibility in exchange for historical accuracy.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby davep » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 14:26:35

SoS, I think oil will peak very soon (or has indeed peaked). This happens to coincide with a downturn in demand, and oil is cheaper. However, if global production does diminish (which it will surely do) there will become a point (fairly rapidly after the peak) when even supressed demand will be higher than available production. This, as they say, is geological fact.

My worry doomwise is that our society just isn't geared up to cope with perpetual 'negative growth' and that economic chaos will ensue, followed by a breakdown in society. Whether this happens in the next five years or twenty years is irrelevant in the scheme of things.
What we think, we become.
User avatar
davep
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
 
Posts: 4579
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Europe
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby davep » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 14:40:10

+1 (pstarr)

apart from the Pimentel bit of course :-D
What we think, we become.
User avatar
davep
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
 
Posts: 4579
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Europe
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby Pops » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 15:26:26

To prophesy is extremely difficult - especially with regard to the future.

I often wonder why seemingly smart people make predictions and other's apparently just as smart think past performance guarantees future results and/or past predictions equate to current fact.

Here are some good ones:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"By 2000, the machines will be producing so much that everyone in the U.S. will, in effect, be independently wealthy."
Time Magazine,1966

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam
Newsweek, predicting popular holidays for the late 1960s.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he basic questions of design, material and shielding, in combining a nuclear reactor with a home boiler and cooling unit, no longer are problems... The system would heat and cool a home, provide unlimited household hot water, and melt the snow from sidewalks and driveways. All that could be done for six years on a single charge of fissionable material costing about $300
Robert Ferry, executive of the U.S. Institute of Boiler and Radiator Manufacturers, 1955.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e will bury you.
Nikita Krushchev, Soviet Premier, predicting Soviet communism will win over U.S. capitalism, 1958.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;A dynamic new spirit enlivens the "City of Tomorrow." People, vehicles, goods — even some of the sidewalks — are moving. The city, cured of its traffic ills is reborn..."
"Man turns ice-clad Antarctica into a global weather center and probes its frozen wastes for resources needed by a growing world population."
"...[T]urbine-driven environmental cars, promise new heights of comfort and convenience in automatic motoring."
"On earth, automatic highways pierce the mountain barriers and turn the highlands into holiday hideaways. Resort hotels beneath the sea serve a new vacation playground."From a GM pamphlet - 1964, Futurama II exhibit

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Some day, the atom, or one of its currently little known by-products, may even drive your own personal car! Does the idea sound fantastic?Motor Trend magazine, April 1951

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n all likelihood world inflation is over.International Monetary Fund Ceo, 1959.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his antitrust thing will blow over.Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4, 1941

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey couldn't hit an elephant at this dist-Last words of Gen. John Sedgwick, spoken as he looked out over the parapet at enemy lines during the Battle of Spotsylvania in 1864.

Gee, this kind of arrogant optimism sounds familiar.

Check this out: http://www.phrenicea.com/MOTORTREND121951page1.htm

NO DUSTING - In 1950, Popular Mechanics envisioned living rooms with drains in the floor, and all the furniture and curtains made of plastic so you could clean house by hosing everything down.

MELTING PLATES - In 1950 Popular Mechanics also forecast cheap plastic plates that would melt in hot water so housewives could "wash dirty dishes right down the drain."

CANDY MADE FROM UNDERWEAR - In 1967 Science Digest predicted that by 2000, "discarded rayon underwear will be bought by chemical factories and converted into candy."

SOLAR-POWERED CLOTHING - A 1981 book predicted solar-powered clothes that retain heat in the winter and coolness in the summer. People would be able to "press a button to formulate our clothing. ..do we want it to be opaque, should it give off steam, do we want it to light up, do we want it to glow in the dark?"

Nighttime joggers and cyclists will begin drinking a liquid that makes their skin glow bright green in the dark.
Kathie Lee Gifford will be straitjacketed and put in a mental institution after her morning show is canceled.

Elizabeth Taylor will marry Burt Reynolds.
Rising insurance costs will force the NFL to eliminate tackle football in favor of two-handed touch.
Fidel Castro will move to Beverly Hills after the overthrow of his government.
Oprah Winfrey will buy CBS and make it the first major network to "turn its back on TV violence."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.”Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project.


Sometimes it's best to either wait and see or at least consider the best information available now.


http://www.2spare.com/item_50221.aspx
http://futurismic.com/2007/10/27/top-87 ... he-future/
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science ... 81851.html
http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2006/10/ ... fty-years/
& cetera...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby zeke » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 18:20:18

it won't be until the flying ratosaurus owns the skies and 8-foot roaches rule the earth that the cornies halfway grasp it, but by then they'll cowering in abandoned gas stations, hoping to avoid being noticed by the hungries.

z
User avatar
zeke
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri 07 Dec 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 18:58:07

Heh, always loved those final words from General Sedgwick.

More to the point, only as recently as 2007 the EIA was predicting 90 mb/d around now:

Image

My chart of forecasters from The Oil Drum | Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers:

Image
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby zeke » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 19:30:19

wow...those eia numbers look positively out ta lunch.



z
User avatar
zeke
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri 07 Dec 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 04 Aug 2009, 22:05:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'S')creaming 2+2=5 at the top of ones lungs does not require the agreement of those who know the correct answer. Those of us who know that 2+2=4 are all quite surprised that peakers continue in this charade considering whats happened since 2005, let alone the one, true, all knowing, all seeing, awe inspiring peak oil event itself more than a year ago now.


You are the only member here talking about multiple peaks and using that as some sort of bludgeon to make a stupid argument discrediting others. It doesn't work and your making a fool of yourself.

Exactly why are you here anyway? Your argument is losing water quickly. It barely holds up in the very short term due to the global slowdown, but this will not last forever. Decline will outlast and outrun any longer term economic crisis.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')hen I shall accept poor credibility in exchange for historical accuracy.


Unfortunately you will not enjoy historical accuracy either.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 00:08:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Which is why I can calculate it all day long for a particular process, and why you can't present a single, not ONE person who ever used such claptrap to judge the merits of an oil and gas project the world over. Its a strawman, nothing more. Does it matter in a theoretical sense? Sure. Does it matter in the arena in which the oilfield industry exists? Not at all.
No you could not. You dont know what your are talking about.


Coming from someone who missed sublimation during his "science" classes, you will understand why I hardly expect you to understand either which particular net energy process I would want to calculate or the way in which I might choose to do it...I certainly didn't specify any particular biologic system and would have no intention of calculating such. I like process EROEI myself, much nicer than biologic calculations...those guys can't even agree on how to use their own definitions of carrying capacity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
')The specific analysis has never been completed satisfactorily by anyone (most particularly a blowhard like yourself). Cutler and Cleveland relied on aggregate energy cost over GDP to model to net-energy, but that is not the same thing as a fuel-specific amortized boundary-controlled, recursive life-cycle energy analysis. Few have been---due to the complexity. Pimentel has. Care to discuss it?


I'll discuss anything with an honest person who meets the criteria I listed elsewhere. You do not measure up. Nothing personal, but true believers don't change their stripes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')Those of us who study history understand that few saw United States oil production peak in 1972. It only becomes apparent after time and accumulated data. That you would ask for, no demand, a specific date and feel hurt when none is available, is a measure of your own lack of maturity.


Sure PStarr, in 2005 everyone was saying "well you know, once it peaks it'll be years and years before anyone notices because heck fire, we don't need all that oil anyway". Good one.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PStarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')Malthus. Jevons. Ehrlich. Duncan. I already listed why. Strawmen. You were recently asked, in another forum, to support this assertion. You equivocated and then ran. I will ask you once again to show quality research analysis that disproves a finite earth. Either you do it here or you STFU. Okay?


Of course not. Particularly coming from a tuck tail and run expert like you.I explained what Auntie requested. Just because you are irritated at not being able to refute it doesn't mean I have to retract it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Good evidence, from a variety of different analytic tools--megaprojects studies, Hubbert's analysis, recession/oil price dependency, discovery curves, reservoir drawdown/production rate analysis, etc.--suggests that we have or are about to peak.

Just how do your little rhetorical games mitigate that?


I've already been perfectly agreeable to any of the peaks in oil production this decade. Pick your favorite, they all qualify.

http://www.allwords.com/word-peak+oil.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') The more you keep referring to the "many peaks" the less and less credibility you earn.


Then I shall accept poor credibility in exchange for historical accuracy.
You do not know what you are talking about.

Sublimation Pstarr, you get that one squared away with hydrates and maybe I'll consider renouncing my recommendation to the younglings on which teaching colleges to avoid.
User avatar
shortonsense
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Proof Positive Oil Has Peaked/Powers

Unread postby zeke » Wed 05 Aug 2009, 09:54:03

OK..energy crisis solved...let's wire up short on brains's typing fingers to some kind of generator, his mouth to a hot air duct.

jeebus.


z
User avatar
zeke
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri 07 Dec 2007, 04:00:00
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests