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Doin' the Simple Math

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Doin' the Simple Math

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 22 Jul 2009, 19:07:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'O')K, for anyone who thinks they're smarter than me, I offer the following challenge:

Find 5 onshore oil fields which, prior to about 1980 (or even later if you like), which had a per-well average production rate of at least 25,000 bpd (per MD's statement in the first post) in at least one year.

Heck, I'll even be nice and bump that down to 20,000 bpd per well! :shock:

Go at it. Prove me wrong.


OilF2, asking questions you already know the answer to!! You know where you are, a little hyperbole / wild exaggeration is the norm, requesting factual evidence is so...well...abnormal....gives me the tingles... :-D

Everytime somebody begins one of these we have to go through the EROEI nonsense all over again.

Nice pictures of the days from "cheap" oil by the way, versus what we've had since about 1930 or so.
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Re: Doin' the Simple Math

Unread postby VMarcHart » Fri 24 Jul 2009, 10:19:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')hat's two orders of magnitude plus another 5X loss in efficiency for processing scale, giving us a hidden energy crisis just waiting to snap anyone on the ass that tries to grow.
Whereas I don't know if your math is accurate, precise accuracy is irrelevant because at stake are the facts that energy consumption must grow to satisfy required economic growth returns, and oil, the #1 energy carrier, is finite, and its replacement is nowhere near to be deployed.
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Re: Doin' the Simple Math

Unread postby Kez » Fri 24 Jul 2009, 14:01:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')ince y'all are constantly saying, "It's all about the flow rates," individual outlyer wells do not count.


If I have a glass of milk with one straw, and then I come along and somehow fit 15 quadrillion straws into that same glass of milk, there's still the same amount of milk in the glass. Flow rates, number of straws, how long each straw is, etc. - the amount of milk is still the same.

Maybe the OP is a little off, so what. The point still stands - drilling miles under the ocean for wells that don't hold but a few weeks or months of supply at best is many orders of magnitude more complex than a thousand wooden wells built all over a few square miles 80 years ago.
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Re: Doin' the Simple Math

Unread postby rangerone314 » Fri 24 Jul 2009, 14:10:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'O')K, for anyone who thinks they're smarter than me, I offer the following challenge:

Find 5 onshore oil fields which, prior to about 1980 (or even later if you like), which had a per-well average production rate of at least 25,000 bpd (per MD's statement in the first post) in at least one year.

Heck, I'll even be nice and bump that down to 20,000 bpd per well! :shock:

Go at it. Prove me wrong.


OilF2, asking questions you already know the answer to!! You know where you are, a little hyperbole / wild exaggeration is the norm, requesting factual evidence is so...well...abnormal....gives me the tingles... :-D

Everytime somebody begins one of these we have to go through the EROEI nonsense all over again.

Nice pictures of the days from "cheap" oil by the way, versus what we've had since about 1930 or so.


Do we actually have accurate figures on the COST (inflation adjusted) on how much it actually costs (average) historically over time to extract a barrel of oil, over many years/decades?
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Re: Doin' the Simple Math

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 24 Jul 2009, 19:05:14

Image

Average Depth of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wells. No division between vertical and horizontal so there are some very long horizontal outliers in there. This is obtained by dividing total footage by number of wells.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'D')o we actually have accurate figures on the COST (inflation adjusted) on how much it actually costs (average) historically over time to extract a barrel of oil, over many years/decades?


Costs of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wells Drilled has real and nominal costs up to 2006. Curve resembles the crude price runup - escape velocity.

Up to East Texas rule of thumb for drillers was a free-for-all, despite protestations of reservoir engineers. I documented this all in OFTwo's EROEI thread if any of you care. Pointing to these pictures of derricks bumping into each other and saying the fields weren't productive in of themselves is just perpetuating a lie.
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